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Thailand Populist Vote Buying & Hiding Monetary Incompetence

wellington

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I've been around long enough to see the following examples of imcompetence and blatent thievery in Thailand.

I thought i'd highly a few examples, then point to where and how a bigger hole is being filled in with tax reciepts.

Back in 2014/15 Thailand(s) largest banks had previously invested in the UK Steel Industry, the washout was essentially a completely leveraged investment which would have bankrupted the Thai banking system, as the steelworks went bankrupt.

  1. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
  2. Thai and Indian steelworks go bust in UK
The rippling effects especially as the banks sit on a massive collection of real-estate that when the purchasers default, the bank if it can not sell for the rate it would have gotten literally holds on its balance sheets as zombie assets which have a paper value but not actual liquid value (quite literally i looked at a property 8 yrs ago and they would not budge even though a tree had grown through and took the roof out and structural issues had started with the foundations) in the US only banks holding T-Bills can do this (hence blowing up in March)...

Would have been astounding -> instead the BoT covered for the Thai banking system whilst the Thai Banks upped fees elsewhere to compensate over the years later for their huge losses, this was done by increasing the AMT withdrawal cost(s) per 0-25,000/30,000 THB from 150 THB -> 180 THB -> 200 THB -> 250 THB (where it sits today) which impacts tourists/expats, it was also an increase in domestic charges (depositing in to a branch in a difference province, and fees for withdrawals in difference provinces), likewise fees for generic banking services.

  1. Thai banks raise ATM fees to THB200 per withdrawal News.
This allowed the Thai Banking System to survive for another day utilising the cover of the BoT, and upping fees to gouge as much money as possible from out of province spending and tourists/expats.

----

Likewise over the years.

Thailand on *numerous* occasions has introduced entry and exit taxes, i've seen 4 each time its a promise of 'healthcare' or this or that and eventually folded into the airline ticket (a flight used to cost something like 800 THB from Bangkok to KL for an example, domestic was dirt cheap, aside from the rising costs of operating an airline, the international flight costs have had some 1,500 THB absorbed into the ticket with 3 different entry/exit taxes, and a new one has recently been introduced... this likewise has the same promise used many times before (fund for healthcare etc) and likely will have an additional one 5 yrs from now....

This negatively impacts tourists/expats but not the locals so much so there's barely any looking into the underlying incompetence that led to each introduction of these taxes, and why there has now been two entry taxes, two exit taxes added and still none of the promises of healthcare/emergency care in an accident for tourism etc.

----

Which brings me to their latest example of incompetence, the introduction of taxation for remittances.

Thailand has entered the demographics trap.

It has more elderly than it has young, a country utilises populist politics to get into power time and time again by providing promises of this or that throughout ones life, the plebeians don't use the intellect in their head to try and understand how from A-Z it will occur -> the same is currently going on for Thailand latest vote bribe, the 10,000 THB promise for a CBDC like coupon....

The issue is very much similar to the same as we have in state and private pensions in the West... the US is a ponzi scheme, the UK's is bankrupt, and if we move onto private pensions, BTGroup PLC last time i checked was 500 billion pounds in a hole and that was over 10 yrs ago, likewise IBM is in a huge f*****g hole.

Basically they 'the state', and 'private' promised what could not be delivered - fraud by any other word.
  1. https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40029332
  2. Thai retirement age could be increased
Thailand has an issue

There are 12-13 million Thai's collecting from the social security fund (it starts at around 500 baht a month and rises to 750 baht a month) small change right? That figure will continue to rise.
1700113364489.png


Only 4% of the population of Thailand pays tax, so somewhere in that 25-55 group is : 2,840,000 people paying tax.
On the other hand, when a Thai gets a proper job for even a short period of time, they get life of social security benefits.... so you have 2.8m people currently paying for the social security benefits of 12-13 million people... and that number will increase.

13m x 600 THB (avg'd) 7,800,000,000 THB = 219,367,502 USD x 12 = 2,632,410,032 USD annually...

The Government there for is 'stealing' from other avenues to cover the shortfall....

One of those avenues is 'tourist/expats', now where does this argument come from... well the introduction of the new taxes...

There's some 2,000,000 Expats in/across Thailand, the average living cost is 2,600$ per month per expat (there will be people that spend less, there will be people that spend more). roughly 92,000 THB a month when all one-off costs and living costs are taken into consideration, each of which will be 'remittance'.

Now if we factor in that the new tax is specifically to be treated as 'income' tax, therefore it automatically has social security deducted, which isn't to the benefit of the person paying the tax (they are not entitled to unless have a wp etc)...

1.png


So 750 THB x 2,000,000 x 12 = 18,000,000,000 THB = 506,215,260 USD

Which offsets any shortfalls for years to come -> whilst also providing a nice buffer for the state with the additional income tax collection(s).
8,500 THB x 12 x 2,000,000 = 204,000,000,000 THB = 5,738,122,960 USD.

Now obviously there will be some that don't pay and others using dual taxation etc. but even at 10% SSF = 50,621,526 USD | Income Tax = 573,812,296 USD which translate into sizeable values into THB

It's then you get to see it's all just robbing their expats just to continue to hide the incompetence and continue the populist vote buying.
 
Good analysis, but in Thailand's defense, the "thievery" is very mild when compared to that done by the Western countries.

Tax on only remitted money is really a blessing.

Compare that to most other countries that tax everything that you earn (or even tax what you have in the name of wealth or "solidarity" taxes), and you'll see that in Thailand even if you make millions abroad you can pay only a few hundred dollars a year in tax if you live a simple life (I understand that's not your case though since you have a family, but you'd still pay much more in the West and have more paperwork to do).

Also, with the introduction of this tax, you can get DTA benefits on dividend income abroad more easily, so with some planning one can even end up paying even less tax overall.

I agree with you that Thailand needs money now, and yes, their mindset is always to get it from foreigners first. Historically, since colonial times, Thailand has worked like that: in the past they avoided being colonized by charging England and France to pretty much do as they pleased. Nowadays they get a large part of their money from tourists and expats. It's just part of their DNA.

But on the plus side, they never ask for too much, and tend to keep it simple. In the future, if they really need more money, they could just remove the 0% tax bracket (where most salaries fall), and have everyone pay at least 5% tax.

Remember also that in Thailand most kids support their parents into old age, hence social security and pensions do not need to be as large. It's just a different way of thinking. If that mindset changes in the next generations, yes, taxes will have to rise accordingly.
 
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I've been around long enough to see the following examples of imcompetence and blatent thievery in Thailand.

I thought i'd highly a few examples, then point to where and how a bigger hole is being filled in with tax reciepts.

Back in 2014/15 Thailand(s) largest banks had previously invested in the UK Steel Industry, the washout was essentially a completely leveraged investment which would have bankrupted the Thai banking system, as the steelworks went bankrupt.

  1. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
  2. Thai and Indian steelworks go bust in UK
The rippling effects especially as the banks sit on a massive collection of real-estate that when the purchasers default, the bank if it can not sell for the rate it would have gotten literally holds on its balance sheets as zombie assets which have a paper value but not actual liquid value (quite literally i looked at a property 8 yrs ago and they would not budge even though a tree had grown through and took the roof out and structural issues had started with the foundations) in the US only banks holding T-Bills can do this (hence blowing up in March)...

Would have been astounding -> instead the BoT covered for the Thai banking system whilst the Thai Banks upped fees elsewhere to compensate over the years later for their huge losses, this was done by increasing the AMT withdrawal cost(s) per 0-25,000/30,000 THB from 150 THB -> 180 THB -> 200 THB -> 250 THB (where it sits today) which impacts tourists/expats, it was also an increase in domestic charges (depositing in to a branch in a difference province, and fees for withdrawals in difference provinces), likewise fees for generic banking services.

  1. Thai banks raise ATM fees to THB200 per withdrawal News.
This allowed the Thai Banking System to survive for another day utilising the cover of the BoT, and upping fees to gouge as much money as possible from out of province spending and tourists/expats.

----

Likewise over the years.

Thailand on *numerous* occasions has introduced entry and exit taxes, i've seen 4 each time its a promise of 'healthcare' or this or that and eventually folded into the airline ticket (a flight used to cost something like 800 THB from Bangkok to KL for an example, domestic was dirt cheap, aside from the rising costs of operating an airline, the international flight costs have had some 1,500 THB absorbed into the ticket with 3 different entry/exit taxes, and a new one has recently been introduced... this likewise has the same promise used many times before (fund for healthcare etc) and likely will have an additional one 5 yrs from now....

This negatively impacts tourists/expats but not the locals so much so there's barely any looking into the underlying incompetence that led to each introduction of these taxes, and why there has now been two entry taxes, two exit taxes added and still none of the promises of healthcare/emergency care in an accident for tourism etc.

----

Which brings me to their latest example of incompetence, the introduction of taxation for remittances.

Thailand has entered the demographics trap.

It has more elderly than it has young, a country utilises populist politics to get into power time and time again by providing promises of this or that throughout ones life, the plebeians don't use the intellect in their head to try and understand how from A-Z it will occur -> the same is currently going on for Thailand latest vote bribe, the 10,000 THB promise for a CBDC like coupon....

The issue is very much similar to the same as we have in state and private pensions in the West... the US is a ponzi scheme, the UK's is bankrupt, and if we move onto private pensions, BTGroup PLC last time i checked was 500 billion pounds in a hole and that was over 10 yrs ago, likewise IBM is in a huge f*****g hole.

Basically they 'the state', and 'private' promised what could not be delivered - fraud by any other word.
  1. https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40029332
  2. Thai retirement age could be increased
Thailand has an issue

There are 12-13 million Thai's collecting from the social security fund (it starts at around 500 baht a month and rises to 750 baht a month) small change right? That figure will continue to rise.
View attachment 5636

Only 4% of the population of Thailand pays tax, so somewhere in that 25-55 group is : 2,840,000 people paying tax.
On the other hand, when a Thai gets a proper job for even a short period of time, they get life of social security benefits.... so you have 2.8m people currently paying for the social security benefits of 12-13 million people... and that number will increase.

13m x 600 THB (avg'd) 7,800,000,000 THB = 219,367,502 USD x 12 = 2,632,410,032 USD annually...

The Government there for is 'stealing' from other avenues to cover the shortfall....

One of those avenues is 'tourist/expats', now where does this argument come from... well the introduction of the new taxes...

There's some 2,000,000 Expats in/across Thailand, the average living cost is 2,600$ per month per expat (there will be people that spend less, there will be people that spend more). roughly 92,000 THB a month when all one-off costs and living costs are taken into consideration, each of which will be 'remittance'.

Now if we factor in that the new tax is specifically to be treated as 'income' tax, therefore it automatically has social security deducted, which isn't to the benefit of the person paying the tax (they are not entitled to unless have a wp etc)...

View attachment 5637

So 750 THB x 2,000,000 x 12 = 18,000,000,000 THB = 506,215,260 USD

Which offsets any shortfalls for years to come -> whilst also providing a nice buffer for the state with the additional income tax collection(s).
8,500 THB x 12 x 2,000,000 = 204,000,000,000 THB = 5,738,122,960 USD.

Now obviously there will be some that don't pay and others using dual taxation etc. but even at 10% SSF = 50,621,526 USD | Income Tax = 573,812,296 USD which translate into sizeable values into THB

It's then you get to see it's all just robbing their expats just to continue to hide the incompetence and continue the populist vote buying.
good write up about the dismal state of affairs.
Its due to this cbdc trial where they desperately need funding for, but this looks like getting cancelled or postponed forever.

There is just no country which does not rob its inhabitants. Its due to the fiat currency system being like a frikking cancer everywhere.

Tax due is only on remitted income and not remitted savings and only if one stays there for over 180 days and its highly questionable this goes thru like that.
There are also options already being developed with pension schemes etc set up in the usual suspect places.

Matter of fact is still its very cheap place for quite good quality, if you pay tax on 500k/thb a year, its only 250usd / tax per year, which is just one good night out in patty per year ;)

In this fd up dystopian world we are in, its actually good to show some tax paid and if its the amount of a one night party in patty its mild. Same arg has been brought to me in Dubai, where a bunch of europeans indeed like to have the 9% tax to parade around tax has been paid.
 
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Tax on only remitted money is really a blessing.

Compare that to most other countries that tax everything that you earn (or even tax what you have in the name of wealth or "solidarity" taxes), and you'll see that in Thailand even if you make millions abroad you can pay only a few hundred dollars a year in tax if you live a simple life (I understand that's not your case though since you have a family, but you'd still pay much more in the West and have more paperwork to do).
This is true.

I was speaking to a friend this morning (HK PR) living in Thailand -> said to him he doesn't have to worry just spread his remittance between his account and his wife account and the tax would come down.

One point he made and its something i've struggled with -> you don't declare income under PR in HK when he was there working as it was overseas (as an engineer) working overseas.

Likewise similar issue i have.

When it's not needed to be declared you then have the issue later -> when remitting to say you've already paid the relevant tax (0%)
 
Good analysis, but in Thailand's defense, the "thievery" is very mild when compared to that done by the Western countries.

Tax on only remitted money is really a blessing.
This has changed already to remitted income, remitted savings is still tax free.

Compare that to most other countries that tax everything that you earn (or even tax what you have in the name of wealth or "solidarity" taxes), and you'll see that in Thailand even if you make millions abroad you can pay only a few hundred dollars a year in tax if you live a simple life (I understand that's not your case though since you have a family, but you'd still pay much more in the West and have more paperwork to do).

Also, with the introduction of this tax, you can get DTA benefits on dividend income abroad more easily, so with some planning one can even end up paying even less tax overall.

I agree with you that Thailand needs money now, and yes, their mindset is always to get it from foreigners first. Historically, since colonial times, Thailand has worked like that: in the past they avoided being colonized by charging England and France to pretty much do as they pleased. Nowadays they get a large part of their money from tourists and expats. It's just part of their DNA.

But on the plus side, they never ask for too much, and tend to keep it simple. In the future, if they really need more money, they could just remove the 0% tax bracket (where most salaries fall), and have everyone pay at least 5% tax.

Remember also that in Thailand most kids support their parents into old age, hence social security and pensions do not need to be as large. It's just a different way of thinking. If that mindset changes in the next generations, yes, taxes will have to rise accordingly.

This is true.

I was speaking to a friend this morning (HK PR) living in Thailand -> said to him he doesn't have to worry just spread his remittance between his account and his wife account and the tax would come down.

One point he made and its something i've struggled with -> you don't declare income under PR in HK when he was there working as it was overseas (as an engineer) working overseas.

Likewise similar issue i have.

When it's not needed to be declared you then have the issue later -> when remitting to say you've already paid the relevant tax (0%)
he can setup a pension scheme in hk and dta that into thailand. 0%.
Saw that mentioned by some lawyer groups but have no idea about it since i dont have a need ;)
 
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This has changed already to remitted income, remitted savings is still tax free.
Correct..

Ok if you worked in a country and paid x % tax but if you worked in countries where 0% tax thus 0% reporting, and / or in other countries where you were there less than 180 days (engineering field / perpetual traveler) then you have issues providing evidence... decades later.
 
Correct..

Ok if you worked in a country and paid x % tax but if you worked in countries where 0% tax thus 0% reporting, and / or in other countries where you were there less than 180 days (engineering field / perpetual traveler) then you have issues providing evidence... decades later.

The new loophole is that if you earned that income while not being a Thai resident it is tax-free.

So, for example, if in 2021 you were not a tax resident of Thailand, you can bring whatever you earned in 2021 into Thailand (even in 2024), and you won't have to pay tax on it. Thailand – Moves on Foreign-Sourced Income Brought into Thailand by Tax Residents.
 
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The new loophole is that if you earned that income while not being a Thai resident it is tax-free.

So, for example, if in 2021 you were not a tax resident of Thailand, you can bring whatever you earned in 2021 into Thailand (even in 2024), and you won't have to pay tax on it. Thailand – Moves on Foreign-Sourced Income Brought into Thailand by Tax Residents.
How do you prove in a couple of years that the money you've brought in is from 2021 and not from 2023 or 2024? What criteria do/will they use?
 
How do you prove in a couple of years that the money you've brought in is from 2021 and not from 2023 or 2024? What criteria do/will they use?

By keeping bank statements, such as the yearly ones that most banks send out.

I doubt they will audit every single foreigner though, especially if you don't remit important sums and are in Thailand on and off, but it's still a good idea to save bank statements and keep everything organized, just in case.
 
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By keeping bank statements, such as the yearly ones that most banks send out.

I doubt they will audit every single foreigner though, especially if you don't remit important sums and are in Thailand on and off, but it's still a good idea to save bank statements and keep everything organized, just in case.
i bet it will be cancelled one way or the other. malaysia did the same and is now posponing it yearly.
 
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