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Question Where do you suggest to keep as a safe places (Banks, EMI and more) your legit earned money?

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permabear

New member
SIlver is a bit overpriced right now. (I have to add some words)
Silver isn't overpriced, it's actually grossly undervalued historically (currently well below 1980, 2011 and 2020) and underpriced relative to other commodities through COMEX and LBMA price suppression (but that's another story). It's the premiums on PHYSICAL silver that are problematic at the moment (up to 40%), if you take a very long-term view then stacking silver today will still prove VERY profitable in the end. But if you're taking a more short-term view then I would say current physical premiums are too high and wait a while.
 

permabear

New member
asset protection is very important. i would not keep cash because of inflation and waste of potential(cash is passive, make it work for you). only for possible forex speculation and for usual expenses of daily life. the safest bet would be government bonds or S&P500. the bonds suck because they are now not even covering inflation, but they are safe. still, for value preservation, physical gold cannot be beat. as for asset appreciation, buy the S&P500 index. you will get, on average, yield of 10% a year and you are tying your money with the entire economy so i think there is nothing safer because the economy is the people and it will recover if it crashes(for the love of god don't sell when it is down!) so it is guaranteed protection. plus the better it is doing, the higher the yield. you can check out other indices if you want, maybe industrials and do a sector rotation. keep in mind that stocks protect you against inflation as well because companies will simply increase their prices. you can also try real estate but in order to get a yield that is worth the hustle and time, you will have to look at some "exotic" locations. there is a YT channel Save and Invest with Giorgio Loukas, that you might find useful. also keep in mind that liquidity of real estate, or gold, is nowhere near that of equities. either way, never keep cash unless you are waiting for market crash, to get in.
You don't keep any physical cash whatsoever? Are you new to this offshore shenanigans?
 

DavidS

Active Member
buy real property , real bricks and mortar, borrow against it, 60% leverage to stay save and enjoy 15% roi each year.......
Please, you are just saying that getting 15% roi (which is freaking amazing) every year is that easy.

Not gonna mention the risk adjusted returns???
 

maxmmm

Mentor Group Gold
To say "Buy only Gold\REIT\Silver" is as equally ridiculous as to say "Buy only DAX" or "Buy only Bitcoin". You need a diversified portfolio to ensure capital preservation and long term growth. Don't be fooled by the performance of the last 10\20 years. The S&P had a few lost decades, so did Japan, Gold, Silver and ANY other asset classes, NO exceptions.

All these suggestions - put your money in silver\gold\bonds\S&P\treasuries and all the other ideas - were already backtested to the death. Read "Global Asset Allocation" by Meb Faber (it's free on his site) and you can will see how all these portfolios worked in the last 200 years. Portfolio diversified over multiple asset classes + Rebalancing = Long term growth.
 

DavidS

Active Member
To say "Buy only Gold\REIT\Silver" is as equally ridiculous as to say "Buy only DAX" or "Buy only Bitcoin". You need a diversified portfolio to ensure capital preservation and long term growth. Don't be fooled by the performance of the last 10\20 years. The S&P had a few lost decades, so did Japan, Gold, Silver and ANY other asset classes, NO exceptions.

All these suggestions - put your money in silver\gold\bonds\S&P\treasuries and all the other ideas - were already backtested to the death. Read "Global Asset Allocation" by Meb Faber (it's free on his site) and you can will see how all these portfolios worked in the last 200 years. Portfolio diversified over multiple asset classes + Rebalancing = Long term growth.
High IQ. And gold/silver/bitcoin are not productive assets by the way.
 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
Read "Global Asset Allocation" by Meb Faber (it's free on his site) and you can will see how all these portfolios worked in the last 200 years. Portfolio diversified over multiple asset classes + Rebalancing = Long term growth.
Your point is well-taken. I would only add that zero interest rates (ZIRP), negative interest rates (NIRP), and the level of government intervention in asset buying that we have seen in the markets over the past thirteen years are quite unprecedented in all of human history, much less during the last 200 years.

We have now entered a new paradigm. Diversification and rebalancing many not be enough. Investors must be nimble when the great reset occurs. The days of building a Permanent Portfolio of an equal allocation of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash may be gone, because most assets are now correlated -- all rising in price because of low interest rates and all dropping in price during a liquidation event.

 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
What do you guys think about the idea to put 80% of your money in crypto coins you can stake and get interest on?
I assume that you mean 80% of your speculative funds. For example, if you devote 10% of your net worth to speculative ideas and you want to devote 80% of those speculative funds (or 8% of your net worth) to cryptocurrencies, that is okay. If you mean 80% of your net worth, that is insane. Crypto is pure speculation. Why would anyone risk 80% of their wealth on any speculation?
 

jjrapy

New member
Your point is well-taken. I would only add that zero interest rates (ZIRP), negative interest rates (NIRP), and the level of government intervention in asset buying that we have seen in the markets over the past thirteen years are quite unprecedented in all of human history, much less during the last 200 years.

We have now entered a new paradigm. Diversification and rebalancing many not be enough. Investors must be nimble when the great reset occurs. The days of building a Permanent Portfolio of an equal allocation of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash may be gone, because most assets are now correlated -- all rising in price because of low interest rates and all dropping in price during a liquidation event.

and how do you think the new portfolio will b compounded?
 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
and how do you think the new portfolio will b compounded?
I am not exactly sure what you mean by that. IMO, either you must invest in things that everyone has needed throughout human history (e.g., food and shelter) or you need to be very nimble and have an exit plan in place if you invest in equities. Personally, I prefer agricultural investments.


For example, if you invested in the NASDAQ at the peak in 2000, you eventually lost almost 80% of your money. Even if you rode out the two financial crises that followed and refused to sell at the bottom, it still took you 17 years to break even. The great reset will be far worse, so you need an exit plan. Just like leaving a country that is lurching towards totalitarianism, it is far better to leave the markets too early than too late.
 
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jjrapy

New member
I am not exactly sure what you mean by that. IMO, either you must invest in things that everyone has needed throughout human history (e.g., food and shelter) or you need to be very nimble and have an exit plan in place if you invest in equities. Personally, I prefer agricultural investments.


For example, if you invested in the NASDAQ at the peak in 2000, you eventually lost almost 80% of your money. Even if you rode out the two financial crises that followed and refused to sell at the bottom, it still took you 17 years to break even. The great reset will be far worse, so you need an exit plan. Just like leaving a country that is lurching towards totalitarianism, it is far better to leave the markets too early than too late.
I was referring to the portfolio composition, as you mentioned equal allocation of stock, bonds, gold, cash.

What composition you think a new portfolio will have?
 

maxmmm

Mentor Group Gold
Your point is well-taken. I would only add that zero interest rates (ZIRP), negative interest rates (NIRP), and the level of government intervention in asset buying that we have seen in the markets over the past thirteen years are quite unprecedented in all of human history, much less during the last 200 years.

We have now entered a new paradigm. Diversification and rebalancing many not be enough. Investors must be nimble when the great reset occurs. The days of building a Permanent Portfolio of an equal allocation of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash may be gone, because most assets are now correlated -- all rising in price because of low interest rates and all dropping in price during a liquidation event.

I've heard all about this and believed this stuff too.. the whole enchilada of ZIRP\NIRP, Fed intervention, all markets are fake, bubbles everywhere, stock market is fake, plunge protection team, only Gold is real, and all the words that the perma-bears love to say. This "knowledge" cost me a lot of money. Perma-bears should (generally) be avoided as they are wrong 99.99% of the time. In fact even if you know sure that there will be a 50% crash some time this decade, you should be invested as the gains you will miss out on, are bigger than 50% (assuming 7% yearly which is pretty average and assuming you can't pick the bottom).

I keep hearing for decades about "the great crash", Liquidation Event, "The big crash to end all crashes", "The end of the financial system", Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and all the other gurus have been peddling these stuff for decades and conspiracy-minded people love this stuff. They have been completely wrong for decades on end. Of course they blame Fed intervention for their mistakes in prediction but the truth is, the world is developing, there are great new companies being born every day and plenty of new markets that are developing. In the meantime there were very few real crashes (2000, 2007) and even when there was a real crash the market recovered in a 3-7 years (yes, even in 1929), anybody that listened to them missed out on huge gains. And diversification would have saved you from almost any one of these crashes. The permabear scare-tactics are mostly just for pushing their subscribers to buy gold for which they receive commission. Same reason many of these gurus offer some "agriculture project" in a far away land, like Panama or Peru that promises high yield % but somehow ends up being a scam.

The problem with all these theories is that if you tell people about ZIRP\NIRP\Fed\Bubbles in all assets you sound clever and intelligent. Whereas if you just say "The global markets will probably grow 5-9% this year" you sound like just an average clown with no special insight. We did not really enter a new paradigm. Read economic history books from the 50s and 60s and you will see that the Fed was intervening back then as well and people were afraid of money printing just as they are now. I agree that the intervention in 2020 was huge and really risky\stupid\inflationary, but overall balanced\diversified portfolio will win in the long term. Or just buy Gold and hope it will somehow perform better than it did in the last 100 years

These people are not there to educate you. Their goal is to scare you so they can sell you their scams, be it Gold, some shady agriculture project, or their "top secret stock picks that turned $1100 into $3.4M".

This chart below shows how the richest families in the world invest. These are the top of the top, they are not stupid and they receive the best advice that money can buy. There still are ways to find assets that are uncorrelated and sustain crashes. It's better to learn and emulate them and not copy the big loser Peter Schiff (or Jim Rogers or any other permabear that missed any important trend in the last 20 years)
 
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Golden Fleece

Active Member
This chart below shows how the richest families in the world invest.
That chart is very telling. It shows that these family offices place only 25% of their wealth in developed market stocks. This is a far cry from what most retail investors do, where they often place 80% to 100% of their wealth in equities. Like I said previously, if that is what you are doing "you need to be very nimble and have an exit plan in place if you invest in equities."

BTW: Harvard University has financial brain power that makes the average family office advisors look like dunces -- and the University is one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse farmland investors. This also applies to other Ivy League universities. It is a fact that agriculture produces higher returns with far less risk and volatility than all other investments. And real assets are historically cheap compared to financial assets.
 

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maxmmm

Mentor Group Gold
That chart is very telling. It shows that these family offices place only 25% of their wealth in developed market stocks. This is a far cry from what most retail investors do, where they often place 80% to 100% of their wealth in equities. Like I said previously, if that is what you are doing "you need to be very nimble and have an exit plan in place if you invest in equities."

BTW: Harvard University has financial brain power that makes the average family office advisors look like dunces -- and the University is one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse farmland investors. This also applies to other Ivy League universities. It is a fact that agriculture produces higher returns with far less risk and volatility than all other investments. And real assets are historically cheap compared to financial assets.
Overall I agree, in fact in another book "The Ivy Portfolio" by the same author Meb Faber, he talks in detail about the portfolios of Yale and Harvard and farmland is mentioned as a part of their portfolio. Still it's just a part of their portfolio, not the entire portfolio and I believe no more than 25%. Majority is still in private equity, equities and hedge funds.

And for the individual investor there are obvious drawbacks: you are completely dependent on whoever manages it for you (unless you want to become a farmer yourself), there are taxes, salaries involved, mgmt fee and you are exposed to changes in taxation/government fees/food prices and in worst case even expropriation of land. Most people can't have a team that manages their farmland like Bill Gates does... For the individual investor I am almost certain that it is not worth the hassle and doesn't produce higher returns. Do you mind sharing what yield % are you getting on your managed farmland investments? Just out of interest.
 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
I was referring to the portfolio composition, as you mentioned equal allocation of stock, bonds, gold, cash.

What composition you think a new portfolio will have?
It depends on your belief system. If you believe, as maxmmm does, that the financial system is fundamentally sound, then the Permanent Portfolio makes sense, with an equal weight of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash. The gold (or silver) component should still help to balance out your portfolio if the usual type of financial calamity occurs.

On the other hand, if you believe that the current level of world debt is unsustainable and you distrust the ability of politicians to tie their shoes in the morning much less run an economy, then a basket of real assets (real estate, gold and silver, commodities, agriculture, etc.) make much more sense as opposed to financial assets.

BTW: You probably still have four to five years to prepare. I am a big believer in reoccurring historical cycles. You can read the following books on the topic:




All of these books, based on actual reoccurring cycles place the next calamity between 2025 and 2028.
 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
Do you mind sharing what yield % are you getting on your managed farmland investments? Just out of interest.
If I told you, you would not believe me. Bear in mind that the yields, cited in the graph below, are for U.S. farmland. If you own a farm in Latin America, where the price of farmland and the cost of labor is half as much or a third as much, and you can then transport your harvest to countries that pay first-world prices then . . . well, you can do the math. This disparity in cost also explains why you can afford to have your land professionally managed in a win-win situation with a profit-split. It is absolutely critical to have management's interests aligned with your own interests.
 

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maxmmm

Mentor Group Gold
If I told you, you would not believe me. Bear in mind that the yields, cited in the graph below, are for U.S. farmland. If you own a farm in Latin America, where the price of farmland and the cost of labor is half as much or a third as much, and you can then transport your harvest to countries that pay first-world prices then . . . well, you can do the math. This disparity in cost also explains why you can afford to have your land professionally managed in a win-win situation with a profit-split.
Please share the yield if you don't mind (can also PM me if you don't want to reveal it here publicly).

So far judging by what you wrote, High Yield + Agriculture + Latin America = sounds like a scam. I really hope I'm wrong. I even know personally some Germans that have fallen for this exact scam, investing in all sorts of forests in Latin America and other agricultural projects (another variation is investing in Durian fruits in Malaysia), waking up years later to realize that there are "problems" with the forest and the money is gone. The reason this scam works is because agriculture "takes time" so the perpetrators have lots of time to wait for the fields to bear fruits and of course you can't take the principle out. After all, anybody that can make 15%+ yield (I'm just assuming here) doesn't need any outside investors, and can simply borrow from the bank at close to ZIRP...
 

jjrapy

New member
It depends on your belief system. If you believe, as maxmmm does, that the financial system is fundamentally sound, then the Permanent Portfolio makes sense, with an equal weight of stocks, bonds, gold, and cash. The gold (or silver) component should still help to balance out your portfolio if the usual type of financial calamity occurs.

On the other hand, if you believe that the current level of world debt is unsustainable and you distrust the ability of politicians to tie their shoes in the morning much less run an economy, then a basket of real assets (real estate, gold and silver, commodities, agriculture, etc.) make much more sense as opposed to financial assets.

BTW: You probably still have four to five years to prepare. I am a big believer in reoccurring historical cycles. You can read the following books on the topic:




All of these books, based on actual reoccurring cycles place the next calamity between 2025 and 2028.
Well, I agree with maxmmm.
And the portfolio of David Swensen (cio of Yale) sure have REIT but up to 25%.
 

Golden Fleece

Active Member
Please share the yield if you don't mind (can also PM me if you don't want to reveal it here publicly).

So far judging by what you wrote, High Yield + Agriculture + Latin America = sounds like a scam. I really hope I'm wrong. I even know personally some Germans that have fallen for this exact scam, investing in all sorts of forests in Latin America and other agricultural projects (another variation is investing in Durian fruits in Malaysia), waking up years later to realize that there are "problems" with the forest and the money is gone. The reason this scam works is because agriculture "takes time" so the perpetrators have lots of time to wait for the fields to bear fruits and of course you can't take the principle out. After all, anybody that can make 15%+ yield (I'm just assuming here) doesn't need any outside investors, and can simply borrow from the bank at close to ZIRP...
Sure, there are all types of scams. At a minimum, you need boots-on-the ground, proper due diligence, title of the property in your name, aligned interests, local lawyers, a country with a rule of law, multi-generational farm experience, multiple sources of water, proper natural pest control, a buyer for your crops in advance of your harvests, and a dozen other factors. It is not easy, which is why very few investors do it -- which explains why farmland is still so cheap in many countries. In fact, most locals still engage in subsistence farming.

Yes, I have also examined timber land investments. You could visit your trees every year for decades and then the trees suddenly disappear one year. That can happen even in the U.S. Everything involves some degree of risk.

Banks in capitalist countries in Latin America still work within real markets. There is no NIRP or ZIRP. In fact, there are often no mortgages for real estate. Couples often save for a home until they can afford to pay in cash. You can get 4%-5% for CDs in USD. You might pay 12% for a car loan, if you can get one. In short, people operate in a real capitalist environment with real interest rates, just like in the U.S. before 2008. So, of course outside investors are needed in a true capitalist economy where interest rates are at normal market levels.

Heck, I just made a one year fully collateralized bridge loan in the U.S. for 15%, because the business is expanding so quickly that it needs multiple sources of funds, more than it can get from just banks. People are lazy and unwilling to think outside the box when it comes to investing, which is why they collectively make the same mistakes over-and-over again. This is exactly why history repeats itself -- and why I am so interested in repeating cycles.
 
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4br

New member
Crypto is pure speculation. Why would anyone risk 80% of their wealth on any speculation?

My friend went all in on crypto in 2013. Now he has over $100,000,000.

I have posted my nuanced take on crypto before.

It has been the best buy of the quarter, the year, the decade.
 
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