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US dollar hegemony starts to crumble

The Yuan doesn't have any future, IMO. It's backed by a totalitarian neo-maoist corrupt dictatorship regime with planned economy and unfavourable demographics. China will get as successful as the Soviet Union got in the 70ies but not beyond. It doesn't have any sustainable growth anymore, it's living off debt from it's shadow banking system and doesn't have any natural resources. Its only main advantage has been low labour costs and low-skilled sheeple workers willing to work like ants for the regime but they will soon be replaced by US robots and AI. Just look at the "success" of the Chinese stock market over the years. The Yuan is only interesting for other authoritarian regimes that want to challenge US hegemony.

USD had already a lower share in global reserves than today after the Nixon shock but recovered until EUR arrived despite the printing press running day and night. EUR has no future neither due to it's flawed design, so USD will remain the only alternative for the time being. Maybe India or South America could challenge it one day, who knows.

Global-Reserve-Currencies-2021-12-30-USD-share-annual.png
 
The Yuan doesn't have any future, IMO. It's backed by a totalitarian neo-maoist corrupt dictatorship regime with planned economy and unfavourable demographics. China will get as successful as the Soviet Union got in the 70ies but not beyond. It doesn't have any sustainable growth anymore, it's living off debt from it's shadow banking system and doesn't have any natural resources. Its only main advantage has been low labour costs and low-skilled sheeple workers willing to work like ants for the regime but they will soon be replaced by US robots and AI. Just look at the "success" of the Chinese stock market over the years. The Yuan is only interesting for other authoritarian regimes that want to challenge US hegemony.
100% facts.

Chinese Economy is crumbling by the day, crushed by real estate bubble popping, massive youth unemployement. Literally everything that doomers predicted about the US, is happening to China.

Even South China Morning Post, a HK-based Chinese propaganda pamphlet can't hide the sad economic reality:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/econom...-jobless-rate-7-takeaways-julys-economic-data
For the 100th time in History we are seeing that central-planning doens't work. Never has worked, never will work.
 
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China has an almost 30% youth uneployment rate. AI will create massive wealth gaps between nations. China has also lost all of its goodwill with the West and run Nazi death camps in their West. Muslim nations feel ambivalent towards them, they performed genocide on the Tibetians.

It's a ruthless, corrupt dictatorship run on misguided beliefs with a Soviet-era army that acts tough to look powerful. To think it will be the prorietor of a "reserve currency" is fantastical thinking only possible if you either live in China or are living in an allied nation like Russia.

The most defining quality of these dictatorships is their incredible hubris. Their belief that their stone-cold ruthlessness will bring them further than the weaker nations. That their "sacrifice' for the supreme leader will bear fruit after fruit.

China has peaked. They had their chance. Their arrogance and feelings of racial superiority will not help establish goodwill. An inwards nation in a global world. They did not manage to take advantage of perhaps the most naive leadership the West has ever seen, a laughable performance.
 
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China has an almost 30% youth uneployment rate. AI will create massive wealth gaps between nations. China has also lost all of its goodwill with the West and run Nazi death camps in their West. Muslim nations feel ambivalent towards them, they performed genocide on the Tibetians.

It's a ruthless, corrupt dictatorship run on misguided beliefs with a Soviet-era army that acts tough to look powerful. To think it will be the prorietor of a "reserve currency" is fantastical thinking only possible if you either live in China or are living in an allied nation like Russia.

The most defining quality of these dictatorships is their incredible hubris. Their belief that their stone-cold ruthlessness will bring them further than the weaker nations. That their "sacrifice' for the supreme leader will bear fruit after fruit.

China has peaked. They had their chance. Their arrogance and feelings of racial superiority will not help establish goodwill. An inwards nation in a global world. They did not manage to take advantage of perhaps the most naive leadership the West has ever seen, a laughable performance.
You are just repeating CIA propaganda. Present facts please.
 
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Me too! I have been hearing the same thing since my teenage years. rof/% rof/% rof/% rof/% rof/%
:rolleyes:
For me this thread was mainly about the status of the Yuan as a reserve currency. But I never heard people predicting China's collapse in my teenage years, the exact opposite actually. I was always told they were the future. The reason people make predictions seems fairly obvious to me, they have to allocate capital and investment somewhere, and you don't like to do that in countries that are in decline. You can argue that China has survived the last 20 years and more and defied expectations. That doesn't in any way mean they will continue to do so.

To some extent you can predict the future, for example, when COVID hit in China it became apparent in November / December that it was quite serious and anyony who bought puts on SPY during January / February made a killing, even as a hedge. Option prices are normally distributed, so you do not have to predict exactly what will happen, you only have to profit of shifting probabilities of something happening.

There have been instances of entire nations being a financial cardhouse such as Japan in the 70's, of course it is very valuable to employ people that try to uncover signs of similar events happening. If you say, "Ah, we can't predict it anyway", you might as well throw darts at a board and base your investment of that. For all we know China is a gigantic card-house. I personally don't think so, and I will be curious to see what they will come up with over the next decades. There are however plenty of reasons to say China has peaked, and a few missteps from the political class can worsen their path significantly.

Historically China has been broken up many times, and it begs the question if this will not happen again. There are also plenty of scenarios supported by history that would see major conflict between the US and China especially if China is on the decline: China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem. This article sums it all up pretty well, especially the part starting at "Over the past 150 years".

"All of these cases were complicated, yet the pattern is clear. If a rapid rise gives countries the means to act boldly, the fear of decline serves up a powerful motive for rasher, more urgent expansion. The same thing often happens when fast-rising powers cause their own containment by a hostile coalition. In fact, some of history’s most gruesome wars have come when revisionist powers concluded their path to glory was about to be blocked."

Not something you would want to stake your pension on, not me at least!

"China’s rise is no mirage: Decades of growth have given Beijing the economic sinews of global power. Major investments in key technologies and communications infrastructure have yielded a strong position in the struggle for geoeconomic influence; China is using a multi-continent Belt and Road Initiative to bring other states into its orbit.

Since the late 2000s, however, the drivers of China’s rise have either stalled or turned around entirely. For example, China is running out of resources: Water has become scarce, and the country is importing more energy and food than any other nation, having ravaged its own natural resources. Economic growth is therefore becoming costlier: According to data from DBS Bank, it takes three times as many inputs to produce a unit of growth today as it did in the early 2000s.

China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens. The fiscal and economic consequences will be devastating: Current projections suggest China’s medical and social security spending will have to triple as a share of GDP, from 10 percent to 30 percent, by 2050 just to prevent millions of seniors from dying of impoverishment and neglect."

These are facts and figures, and unless China starts cloning operations and things in the realms of sci-fi, they are reality. One thing we can know for certain, it won't be immigrants that will help China manage their senior citizens like in the West.
 
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But I never heard people predicting China's collapse in my teenage years, the exact opposite actually.
Well...that depends on how old you are. How old are you? :rolleyes:

This is a REBUTTAL article from 1995: Why China Will Not Collapse on JSTOR
A rebuttal article! So many articles before this period....
Do you remember that it was boiling for a long time and then culminated in 1989? :oops:
1692297001707.webp


Ah, we can't predict it anyway"
I present to you, Warren Buffett, The Oracle of Omaha in his own words and his own voice and his own videos ->>>>
;) :cool:
 
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Not as old as you.

I present to you, Warren Buffett, The Oracle of Omaha in his own words and his own voice and his own videos ->>>>
You couldn't have given me a worse example. Buffet has been unwinding all his China bets over the last year and a half. That video you sent is also about something entirely else. It's about doing your own research instead of blindly copying others. Buffet is an investor, he buys good companies and holds them forever preferably.

I was talking about options trading and am more focused on shorting scams these days. There were multiple events over the last years that proved to be incredibly profitable for someone like buying puts on the SPY before COVID hit and buying puts on CAML right before the Russian invasion, both events where the leading opinion / consience in the West vastly differed from reality, the same can apply in reverse. Your ROI on one of these bets can exceed 100x.

Your argument paired with a video is just lazy, maybe just try and put into words what your argument is in your own words. I have to send sources here or I there will be accusations of not "stating facts" or people will scream propaganda so here:

"
In today’s CNBC interview, Buffet said BYD is “extraordinary” and TSMC is a “fabulous enterprise” but the geopolitical risk between these two companies’ home bases has become too big to ignore.

The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan as its own, a claim Taiwan rejects. Tensions between Beijing and the democratically governed island have been rising in recent months, fueling speculations that a war may soon break out between the two regions.

“I re-evaluated that part of it,” Buffet said of his decision to reduce holdings in TSMC. “I didn’t re-evaluate the business, the management, or anything of the sort.”

“We’ll find things to do with the money that I’ll feel better about,” Buffett said of BYD."

"
Lay-offs by tech leaders like Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi Corp. have exacerbated a jobs crisis in China, pushing youth unemployment to about 20 per cent.

In recent quarters, SoftBank’s Son has been vocal in his rising concerns about the China market. After watching the value of Alibaba plunge, he pulled back on new investments in addition to selling shares in the e-commerce giant.

“We have reduced the China dependency in our portfolio, therefore we believe we don’t have to worry too much about the situation in China,” he said during an earnings call in May."

Once again, old articles that predicted a crash in the past that failed to happen does not mean it won't happen now. All I am saying is that betting on China is very risky due to (geo)political risk and that it is likely that they have peaked and will experience a slowdown over the coming decades. I am not really talking about a crash that suddenly kills the country...

Your income seems to depend on China so I won't expect you to give a fair assessment of the situation there anyway. It's obvious you are in love with China, you stated that it's your favourite place in the world, it has probably made you very wealthy, it has been kind to you. I don't think you are the right person to look at the country fair and square. This is not about you or your experience in the upper echelons of Chinese society, the Lamborghini owning Chinese entrepreneurs who can't get enough of the high-life thinking they are incredibly smart, or the self-righteous political class expecting ever greater things, it's about the economic state of a nation supported by facts and figures, the problems that seem to be present and unfold and the likelihood the rulers of said nation will solve those problems.

Events over the future will unfold that prove some people in this thread wrong, and some will be proven right. Some people have put their money where their mouth is, some have not. If you are not interested in the intellectual game that is trying to predict the future just don't participate in the discussion. I hold no personal grudges against countries.
 
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Not as old as you.


You couldn't have given me a worse example. Buffet has been unwinding all his China bets over the last year and a half. That video you sent is also about something entirely else. It's about doing your own research instead of blindly copying others. Buffet is an investor, he buys good companies and holds them forever preferably.

I was talking about options trading and am more focused on shorting scams these days. There were multiple events over the last years that proved to be incredibly profitable for someone like buying puts on the SPY before COVID hit and buying puts on CAML right before the Russian invasion, both events where the leading opinion / consience in the West vastly differed from reality, the same can apply in reverse. Your ROI on one of these bets can exceed 100x.

Your argument paired with a video is just lazy, maybe just try and put into words what your argument is in your own words. I have to send sources here or I there will be accusations of not "stating facts" or people will scream propaganda so here:

"
In today’s CNBC interview, Buffet said BYD is “extraordinary” and TSMC is a “fabulous enterprise” but the geopolitical risk between these two companies’ home bases has become too big to ignore.

The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan as its own, a claim Taiwan rejects. Tensions between Beijing and the democratically governed island have been rising in recent months, fueling speculations that a war may soon break out between the two regions.

“I re-evaluated that part of it,” Buffet said of his decision to reduce holdings in TSMC. “I didn’t re-evaluate the business, the management, or anything of the sort.”

“We’ll find things to do with the money that I’ll feel better about,” Buffett said of BYD."

"
Lay-offs by tech leaders like Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi Corp. have exacerbated a jobs crisis in China, pushing youth unemployment to about 20 per cent.

In recent quarters, SoftBank’s Son has been vocal in his rising concerns about the China market. After watching the value of Alibaba plunge, he pulled back on new investments in addition to selling shares in the e-commerce giant.

“We have reduced the China dependency in our portfolio, therefore we believe we don’t have to worry too much about the situation in China,” he said during an earnings call in May."

Once again, old articles that predicted a crash in the past that failed to happen does not mean it won't happen now. All I am saying is that betting on China is very risky due to (geo)political risk and that it is likely that they have peaked and will experience a slowdown over the coming decades. I am not really talking about a crash that suddenly kills the country...

Your income seems to depend on China so I won't expect you to give a fair assessment of the situation there anyway. It's obvious you are in love with China, you stated that it's your favourite place in the world, it has probably made you very wealthy, it has been kind to you. I don't think you are the right person to look at the country fair and square. This is not about you or your experience in the upper echelons of Chinese society, the Lamborghini owning Chinese entrepreneurs who can't get enough of the high-life thinking they are incredibly smart, or the self-righteous political class expecting ever greater things, it's about the economic state of a nation supported by facts and figures, the problems that seem to be present and unfold and the likelihood the rulers of said nation will solve those problems.

Events over the future will unfold that prove some people in this thread wrong, and some will be proven right. Some people have put their money where their mouth is, some have not. If you are not interested in the intellectual game that is trying to predict the future just don't participate in the discussion. I hold no personal grudges against countries.
None of your quotes are credible to me. What others interpret or report on what Buffett or others say is just hogwash to me. In court, it's called hearsay and is NOT admissible (unless it's beneficial to the court's co-counsel aka. the prosecutor).

I want to hear it from the horse's mouth! There is a HUGE distinction, but it's lost on most uninitiated people. Especially people who believe in fortune tellers or are conmen trying to defraud others rof/% (The "or" is NOT mutually exclusive, so NOT a disjunctive conjunction;))

I am NOT interested in gambling with my money or anyone's money! I bought BRKA in the 80s and I still have them. I don't invest in stocks! I invest in companies that produce products or services that willing individuals yearn to voluntarily purchase! Simple concept!
Betting/gambling does NOT add anything of value to society! It's predatory!

You are here arguing against the likes of Berkshire, a +770 billion company, and a report by UBS, a +75 Billion company. Dude.... seriously? You are THAT smart? If so, run for office since Rutte is "supposedly" leaving and fix this: De Nederlandse economie belandt in een recessie terwijl de inflatie toeslaat

Also, don't forget the most pragmatic adage in the world: Als iedereen aan zichzelf denkt, dan wordt er aan iedereen gedacht! :cool:

Doe normaal, jonge!:cool:
 
None of your quotes are credible to me. What others interpret or report on what Buffett or others say is just hogwash to me. In court, it's called hearsay and is NOT admissible (unless it's beneficial to the court's co-counsel aka. the prosecutor).

I want to hear it from the horse's mouth! There is a HUGE distinction, but it's lost on most uninitiated people. Especially people who believe in fortune tellers or are conmen trying to defraud others rof/% (The "or" is NOT mutually exclusive, so NOT a disjunctive conjunction;))

I am NOT interested in gambling with my money or anyone's money! I bought BRKA in the 80s and I still have them. I don't invest in stocks! I invest in companies that produce products or services that willing individuals yearn to voluntarily purchase! Simple concept!
Betting/gambling does NOT add anything of value to society! It's predatory!

You are here arguing against the likes of Berkshire, a +770 billion company, and a report by UBS, a +75 Billion company. Dude.... seriously? You are THAT smart? If so, run for office since Rutte is "supposedly" leaving and fix this: De Nederlandse economie belandt in een recessie terwijl de inflatie toeslaat

Also, don't forget the most pragmatic adage in the world: Als iedereen aan zichzelf denkt, dan wordt er aan iedereen gedacht! :cool:

Doe normaal, jonge!:cool:
I am not arguing against Berkshire, it is fact Berkshire has sold their China positions as it is a public company. There are people like Druckenmiller whom have a radically different investment style and make much more money, there are funds which are much more successful than Berkshire. Maybe brush up on your reading skills. And nice of you to talk about predatory behaviour while repeating the most egoistical adage in the Dutch language, maybe tell it to the worker ants whose products you sell to Western businesspeople.

You do not seem to know that Buffet's holdings and transactions are completely public, it's not hearsay. You can look his positions up on SEDAR if you want. Good for you that you are a guy of impeccable moral character. Or at least believe yourself to be of good character. I wouldn't have expected different from a Dutch person, whom are often morally righteous by design.

Maybe also read my comments, again. I did not argue against the UBS report. Keep arguing the EU is a parasite with your subsidized Erasmus degree, a pillar of EU-convergence policy. I am not pro-EU nor do I take their money. Also, you not knowing all of Buffet's positions are public has made me smirk. Thanks.

EDIT:

I now realize you did not see that the pictures I posted where literally taken from the UBS report "which you already read", even was going to put in your "diary". Funny guy!

China Evergrande seeks Chapter 15 protection in Manhattan bankruptcy court​

https://www.reuters.com/legal/china...ter-15-bankruptcy-us-court-filing-2023-08-17/
 
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This is NOT FaceBook or IG or Twitter etc etc...

For the benefit of the OCT forum and to keep things civil and on an intellectual level, I am going to ignore all your failed attempts at ad hominem fallacies as they are ill-disguised efforts of a hurt person trying to hurt another person and bring them down to their level. :cool:


1692326294484.png

Do better! Don't go off-topic!
---------------------------------

I am going to ONLY answer with videos of Warren explaining it himself in his own words and I will allow the members of this forum to return their verdict. They can be the judge of it all.:cool:

The narrow-legal issue here now becomes:
Do you know better about how Buffett thinks and acts vs. Buffett himself? rof/%rof/%rof/%

it is fact Berkshire has sold their China positions as it is a public company
Totally NOT true! Listen to Warren Buffett explain it in his own words here:

The relevant piece ends at 4:06:00. He explains that he ONLY reports his holdings if the law requires it. Listen for yourself. Don't take my word for it. rof/%

Also: Berkshire Hathaway Didn't Have to Disclose Earlier its 10% Stake in Paramount. Here's Why.

and this article: Warren Buffett's Transparency Problem

Excerpt:
1692326866533.png


Also:
1692328516609.png


Keep arguing the EU is a parasite with your subsidized Erasmus degree, a pillar of EU-convergence policy.
I went to college in the USA and never went to school in the Netherlands or lived in the Netherlands.
Here's the urban definition of a*s-U-ME that I learned in US academia:
1692327034633.png


You couldn't have given me a worse example. Buffet has been unwinding all his China bets over the last year and a half
a*s-U-ME again?

Buffett or any good investor sells for a variety of reasons and we do NOT know what they are and he will NOT disclose them. Listen to him explain it himself:

If you disagree with ANY of the above call Buffett or Barron's or Newsweek or the SEC. I have NO thoughts of my own. I'm NOT that smart! :rolleyes:

Good luck! :cool:
 
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Especially lying about never having lived in The Netherlands while posting about being in Dutch highschool VWO. I am not making assumptions when I am drawing from posts you made here. I remember reading your life-story about your Erasmus degree a couple days ago, so your college degree was subsidized by the EU, if I had to guess you did deliveries for the Indonesian-Chinese restaurants (you said yourself you did deliveries) in The Netherlands (you said you were in VWO) after which you had the EU pay for your education (only EU does Erasmus) in the US after which you leveraged that into becoming successful in China.
Again! I never went to school in the Netherlands or lived in the Netherlands.
Your assumptions, AGAIN, are completely wrong! You failed, once more, in every aspect of this. Is this common with you? :rolleyes:

Yet you can't write a full paragraph on why the Chinese Yuan is going to overtake the US dollar.
rof/% You write it! I already said that I can't predict the future! Any future! ;)

Go watch Tate as a grown as man from your hotel room and f**k off.
Another personal irrational emotional outburst. rof/%

Take some paracetamol! rof/%
 
Again! I never went to school in the Netherlands or lived in the Netherlands.
Your assumptions, AGAIN, are completely wrong! You failed, once more, in every aspect of this. Is this common with you? :rolleyes:


rof/% You write it! I already said that I can't predict the future! Any future! ;)


Another personal irrational emotional outburst. rof/%

Take some paracetamol! rof/%
It's once again, not an assumption when I am drawing from things YOU said and posts YOU made. You waste your time writing made-up stories about yourself on this forum. Sad.
 
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