Buying shares as a long-term investment

[Arsenal88]

Hi guys,

As we all experience, there is a global economic crisis due to COVID-19, and unfortunately, it will escalate in the future, I guess. Sometimes I buy shares as a long-term investment, and I think it is a good opportunity in this case.

I compiled a portfolio (different corporations) from the following industries: Electric car industry, Oil industry, Travel industry, Tech industry, Home entertainment industry, Fast food industry, Aircraft industry, Medical Marijuana industry

What kind of shares would you propose to buy from these industries? In fact, I am curious to learn your opinions!

 

[onemansomewhere]

Hello,

If you want to buy shares as a long time investment, there has to be some rules considered:

1. No goverment regulated segments if possible - Due to unexpected changes in regulations
2. No shares of tech companies, which falls as fast as they grow
3. No high risk industries
4. No industries which will be not existing in 25 years

So to exact industries you are asking for:

Electric car industry - Too risky. I believe, that future is in a hydrogen. Not in electric batteries.

Oil industry - Too volatille

Travel industry - Which types of businesses? If travel agencies for 60+ retired people, congrats. If airlines - it can be a problem, if Hotels - just some hotel networks with tradition and reasonable plan for next 50 years makes sense.


Tech industry - The most of Tech companies which we know today, will be not in a market in next 10 years

Home entertainment industry - Which type of business?

Fast food industry - Sooner or later, it will be a highly regulated business

Aircraft industry - Yes. Good choice. In a long term.

Medical Marijuana industry - No. Any ogverment can ban this business from day to day.

 

[Arsenal88]

Hello,

If you want to buy shares as a long time investment, there has to be some rules considered:

1. No goverment regulated segments if possible - Due to unexpected changes in regulations
2. No shares of tech companies, which falls as fast as they grow
3. No high risk industries
4. No industries which will be not existing in 25 years

So to exact industries you are asking for:

Electric car industry - Too risky. I believe, that future is in a hydrogen. Not in electric batteries.

Oil industry - Too volatille

Travel industry - Which types of businesses? If travel agencies for 60+ retired people, congrats. If airlines - it can be a problem, if Hotels - just some hotel networks with tradition and reasonable plan for next 50 years makes sense.


Tech industry - The most of Tech companies which we know today, will be not in a market in next 10 years

Home entertainment industry - Which type of business?

Fast food industry - Sooner or later, it will be a highly regulated business

Aircraft industry - Yes. Good choice. In a long term.

Medical Marijuana industry - No. Any ogverment can ban this business from day to day.

Hi,

Thank you for your opinion!



Travel industry: travel agencies like Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., commercial airlines like International Airlines Group, hotels like InterContinental Hotels Group, etc.

Home entertainment industry: In this case, I think Netflix (and similar providers in the future) will be more significant because the commercial television loses from its own existence.

Aircraft industry: I agree with you in a long term period.

 

[onemansomewhere]

Forget Netflix.. Its main business idea is terrible. They will never ever earn a single cent to its shareholders in dividends. Receiving a reasonable dividends is one of the main point for a long term investing. They are some kind of mix of production company + distribution company + entertainment.. Company without clear lines.. In a 21st century will be succesfull highly specialized companies having a core business, not mixing many businesses together.

Royal Caribean Cruises can be a good deal. Commerciaal airlines not. Commercial airlines are addicted to oil prices, and too many other unpredictable circumstances. InterContinental Hotels Group can be a good pick.

 

[Arsenal88]

Forget Netflix.. Its main business idea is terrible. They will never ever earn a single cent to its shareholders in dividends. Receiving a reasonable dividends is one of the main point for a long term investing. They are some kind of mix of production company + distribution company + entertainment.. Company without clear lines.. In a 21st century will be succesfull highly specialized companies having a core business, not mixing many businesses together.

Royal Caribean Cruises can be a good deal. Commerciaal airlines not. Commercial airlines are addicted to oil prices, and too many other unpredictable circumstances. InterContinental Hotels Group can be a good pick.

What is your opinion about these industries (railway industry, rental industry)?

Some picks: FirstGroup plc (Greyhound Lines), Greenbrier Companies Inc., Central Japan Railway Co., Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.

Rental & leasing services: Avis Budget Group, Inc.

 

[onemansomewhere]

Railway - in countries, where a market is liberal and unregulated - great. In countries where only one company means the market and where it is strictly regulated - never. Great countries are Canada, Japan, ...

Car rental companies - They are too much connected with all automotive industry..

Leasing service - this is a financial service - I do not believe in a future of financial services as we know it now. Blockchain and equivalent technologies will destroy banking, leasing and many other financial business. If financial business, insurance companies from stable countries can be great oportunities. I do not count USA to be a stable country. But Japan, Canada, Brazil.. yes.

 

[LouisB]

Hi guys,

As we all experience, there is a global economic crisis due to COVID-19, and unfortunately, it will escalate in the future, I guess. Sometimes I buy shares as a long-term investment, and I think it is a good opportunity in this case.

I compiled a portfolio (different corporations) from the following industries: Electric car industry, Oil industry, Travel industry, Tech industry, Home entertainment industry, Fast food industry, Aircraft industry, Medical Marijuana industry

What kind of shares would you propose to buy from these industries? In fact, I am curious to learn your opinions!

Hi,

There are plenty of options, very important if you are looking for stocks of a particular country. If you are focused mainly on US, then to select big companies like Lockheed Martin, Chevron, Intel, Google could be worth as long term investment. Airlines, travel companies, hotels, or oil companies are a high-risk high reward opportunity for now. If you look for stocks that behave completely differently from others, maybe Aerojet is the right choice if the price will go down again.

 

[onemansomewhere]

Hi,

There are plenty of options, very important if you are looking for stocks of a particular country. If you are focused mainly on US, then to select big companies like Lockheed Martin, Chevron, Intel, Google could be worth as long term investment. Airlines, travel companies, hotels, or oil companies are a high-risk high reward opportunity for now. If you look for stocks that behave completely differently from others, maybe Aerojet is the right choice if the price will go down again.

I have to totaly disagree. Intel? Have you seen their P/E ratio? Google the same.. High risk are tech companies. How many of IT companies listed in US stock market years ago are listed today?

He wrote, he is looking for stock for investment. Not for speculation.

 

[Tax Cow]

1st, do you require dividend yield from day 1? From your industry picks, it seems like you're going for cap gains inatead. Some ideas below:

Aviation - Rolls Royce makes some of the best plane engines. Airbus is in the air, but also in terms of price. I'd not buy. Boeing is a clusterfuck, but evaluate again if they dump the Max permanently or elevate the plane clearance to avoid the need for a software fix for problems caused by budget hardware engineering. If Trump does not pay the bill to re-engineer the Max, but insists on rebranding that shite, it's not a buy until at least 2030.

Tech stocks - Censorshipbook, GOOgle, BigbotherSoft should be avoided on moral grounds. Apple is the best pick from big names.

Home Entertainment - Sony is not too bad. Just like Royce to aviation, it's only a partial exposure. If you want full exposure but more risk, take some Netflix. And if you want somewhere in the middle, consider Disney.

Final comment; with your picks, you're heavily reliant on economic growth and the good times. I'd remove one industry in favor of precious metals mining stocks as a hedge, or by minimum, in favor of food processing or agriculture that is not marijuana-related.

 

[Tax Cow]

And for disclosure, I own Rolls Royce of the companies mentioned in previous post, and none of the others.

 

[onemansomewhere]

Rolls Royce is very good choise.

 

[LouisB]

I have to totaly disagree. Intel? Have you seen their P/E ratio? Google the same.. High risk are tech companies. How many of IT companies listed in US stock market years ago are listed today?

He wrote, he is looking for stock for investment. Not for speculation.

Don't forget that P/E ratio is nothing more than only one not perfect indicator. For Tesla, you have P/E like 200-500. Tech companies are those that managed the current big correction if you skip big tech companies, you will realize that other industries are much more down than the whole index. Did you see the big return of Microsoft in the last years? Five years ago would no one say that Microsoft will be the biggest company in the world again, they managed it! A Very impressive return at the top. Big tech companies are much less risky than the rest of the market in my opinion

 

[onemansomewhere]

Don't forget that P/E ratio is nothing more than only one not perfect indicator. For Tesla, you have P/E like 200-500. Tech companies are those that managed the current big correction if you skip big tech companies, you will realize that other industries are much more down than the whole index. Did you see the big return of Microsoft in the last years? Five years ago would no one say that Microsoft will be the biggest company in the world again, they managed it! A Very impressive return at the top. Big tech companies are much less risky than the rest of the market in my opinion

Any tech company is not investment, but a clear speculation. This thread is about long term investing. Not about speculations. We are discussing investmenrs, which you can buy and hold 30 years without noticing any changes.. MIcrosoft and other Tech companies will be not where they are now. And the most of them will be not here in 30 year.s

 

[LouisB]

Any tech company is not investment, but a clear speculation. This thread is about long term investing. Not about speculations. We are discussing investmenrs, which you can buy and hold 30 years without noticing any changes.. MIcrosoft and other Tech companies will be not where they are now. And the most of them will be not here in 30 year.s

Well, maybe you agree or not that the world is changing. Tech companies will be with us no matter if you like it or not, btw Microsoft IPO was 34 years ago

 

[onemansomewhere]

Well, maybe you agree or not that the world is changing. Tech companies will be with us no matter if you like it or not, btw Microsoft IPO was 34 years ago

Som of will be and some not. It is about risk. 19 of 20 IT companies which are with us now, will be not here in next 10-15 years. We are discissing here investment. Not speculations.

 

[LouisB]

Som of will be and some not. It is about risk. 19 of 20 IT companies which are with us now, will be not here in next 10-15 years. We are discissing here investment. Not speculations.

I strongly disagree as in the past 10-15 years "they" told us negative rates are nonsense, no overnight swaps with zero interest is possible, no community currency is viable (BTC), etc. If we cannot absorb new trends, we will die and it is valid for our investment as well. But this topic is interesting, so if you have arguments on why we should not trust new approaches, put it on the table, I'm curious

 

[onemansomewhere]

I strongly disagree as in the past 10-15 years "they" told us negative rates are nonsense, no overnight swaps with zero interest is possible, no community currency is viable (BTC), etc. If we cannot absorb new trends, we will die and it is valid for our investment as well. But this topic is interesting, so if you have arguments on why we should not trust new approaches, put it on the table, I'm curious

It is all about the statistics. If you want to be "progressive" and buy stocks of IT companies.. you are welcomed. But do not call it a long time investment. Long time investment is something, where you invest now and keep it for a decades. It is not a good idea to buy a stocks of IT companies, when statistics are absolutely exact. Just less than 1 % of IT companies listed in a stock exchanges 20 years ago, are still listed and working.. Do you know what is difference between speculation and investment? Amount of risk. Investing in stocks of IT companies is too high risk. If you want to feel good to be supporting IT sector and to be progressive, you can buy stocks of IT companies. But do not call it investment. It is speculation, it is progressive life style, it is whatever, but not a long time investment.. investment is something, where profit is at least eqaul to a risk. Investment is not something where you buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell.. It is a speculation.

 

[LouisB]

It is all about the statistics. If you want to be "progressive" and buy stocks of IT companies.. you are welcomed. But do not call it a long time investment. Long time investment is something, where you invest now and keep it for a decades. It is not a good idea to buy a stocks of IT companies, when statistics are absolutely exact. Just less than 1 % of IT companies listed in a stock exchanges 20 years ago, are still listed and working.. Do you know what is difference between speculation and investment? Amount of risk. Investing in stocks of IT companies is too high risk. If you want to feel good to be supporting IT sector and to be progressive, you can buy stocks of IT companies. But do not call it investment. It is speculation, it is progressive life style, it is whatever, but not a long time investment.. investment is something, where profit is at least eqaul to a risk. Investment is not something where you buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell.. It is a speculation.

We don't live in a rigid world. If you learn from history, the world is changing and if you can find new progressive segments in the economy, you will be a winner. If you just put your money into traditional funds focused on bonds and shares of defensive sectors, okay why not. But at the end of the day, your earnings will be much less in comparison to investing into new developing assets.

 

[LouisB]

In addition, the difference between investing and speculating is not valid as 95% of people don't know how to invest for the long term. The basic rule to invest gradually on more price levels is not fulfilled by retail investors. So most people who think that they are investing just join the game and let themselves push out by big players sooner or later, no matter the type of the asset.