Make your vote, Bitcoin will hit 18K now?

[void]

Guys how about just a mix of both i.e BTC as core of portfolio and more speculative sub 1 cent coins with a low max supply for the 200x returns. You need a lot of luck to get such returns on sub 1 cent coins as there are plenty of good projects out there that go nowhere and plenty of sh1tcoins that do very well .

In the end if your in the crypto space then diversification still applies like it does in the stock market

considering your mindset is still based in USD then you would be right IF this investment and diversification strategy would have been based in having an edge against other market participant - this is not only difficult but extremely rare and most "investors" will get what they deserve
I will borrow Warren's catchy words... the fetish of investing is a rat poison and desperate last resort how to escape a certain financial death - unfortunately for most people it's a net negative idea, they feed financial "experts" and institutions, bring discomfort and fear to their lives, undergo huge counter party risk, waste time they could use more productively using their primary skills and develop businesses, ... all that for returns that hardly ever beat the official inflation, not mentioning the real one

bitcoin is not an investment, it doesn't require any expertise, consultants, time, counter party risk etc. - it's an ultimate asset for conservation of capital - which is something we all are actually looking for and only tiny fraction of the population should invest as their primary occupation or hobby of its kind

 

[W Fish]

In the end if your in the crypto space then diversification still applies like it does in the stock market

Actually it does not. Diversification works in casino, in cases you are guessing.
Engineeers do not diversify, they do not built 20 bridges randomly so that most traffic will get to the other side.
In case you KNOW / UNDERSTAND, there is no need for diversification.

 

[Mercury]

In case you KNOW / UNDERSTAND, there is no need for diversification.

You can deeply understand something but still not predict nor control the future.
All that matters is your own conviction, either backed by extensive research and learning or just true intuition.
Diversification is inversely proportional to the degree of conviction.

 

[W Fish]

All that matters is your own conviction, either backed by extensive research and learning or just true intuition.

Conviction is subjective and has limits.
You can not bend a spoon with conviction.
Earth does not revolve around sun, apple does not fall to ground, two plus two does not equal four because of conviction.
There is objective reality besides it.
If conviction and objective reality conflict, guess what wins?

P.S. not saying that conviction is totally useless, it just is not by far the only thing that matters.

 

[void]

If conviction and objective reality conflict, guess what wins?

that's waaay off topic and has nothing to do with what you responded to but think about where this objective reality in your objective reality resides and how easy it is to turn this objective reality into bit different reality that feels as real as the original one

 

[Martin Everson]

considering your mindset is still based in USD

How did you come to this conclusion...lol? I stopped reading what you said after this point as a false premise was made and you know me better than that when it comes to my feelings about anything USD....lol.

Actually it does not. Diversification works in casino, in cases you are guessing.
Engineeers do not diversify, they do not built 20 bridges randomly so that most traffic will get to the other side.
In case you KNOW / UNDERSTAND, there is no need for diversification.

Ok I see the low level of discussion we are having here and will politely excuse myself from this thread as not to offend you
.

 

[void]

How did you come to this conclusion...lol? I stopped reading what you said after this point as a false premise was made and you know me better than that when it comes to my feelings about anything USD....lol.

come on, don't be that touchy... I apologize, it's just my clumsy phrasing as a non-native English speaker... let me rephrase it to "considering ONE'S/INVESTOR'S mindset is still based in USD" - then you could hopefully keep reading as I'm keen to get your or anyone's feedback

 

[Martin Everson]

come on, don't be that touchy... I apologize, it's just my clumsy phrasing as a non-native English speaker... let me rephrase it to "considering ONE'S/INVESTOR'S mindset is still based in USD" - then you could hopefully keep reading as I'm keen to get your or anyone's feedback

Ok I will read your statement in full now .

bitcoin is not an investment, it doesn't require any expertise, consultants, time, counter party risk etc. - it's an ultimate asset for conservation of capital - which is something we all are actually looking for and only tiny fraction of the population should invest as their primary occupation or hobby of its kind

I guess if you self custody your BTC you can avoid counterparty risk. Being the ultimate asset for conservation of capital I doubt that very much due to volatility and potential technology risks etc. Yes capital preservation is critical for me personally but everybody has their own risk appetite which may not lead them to BTC but more traditional asset classes. In some years from now this may all change and I see that things are evolving fast in the BTC space which is a good thing. In short the jury is out for me although I hold a more favourble view on BTC as time goes on than I did 10 years ago which is not a bad thing.

P.S Today has been a good day for BTC price its way above the price giving in thread subject line

 

[W Fish]

that's waaay off topic

you must be right:

 

[polonieth]

no offense man but what a nonsense...


absolutely... just one minor problem to mention - you have to somehow magically know when to exit - which is not only possible (except getting lucky and then feeling like a king of traders) and also you have to exit somewhere, lol

But this also applies to Bitcoin, remember it's been down 95% on multiple occasions...

I like BTC, and you should hold it. But the other coins are going to outperform it in % gains over the shorter term.

on the contrary - the price of bitcoin in USD has no ceiling - it's fair to note that what is not guaranteed is whether bitcoin will survive, yet this risk is getting lower every day and is basically negligible in terms of the upside it brings

If you bought in 2017, how much are you up in % terms? At 100k a coin, not many people are going to be able to purchase enough for it to create massive wealth for them. Whereas a coin that does 10,000x, can do. Hex, for example, did a 10,000x.

Guys how about just a mix of both i.e BTC as core of portfolio and more speculative sub 1 cent coins with a low max supply for the 200x returns. You need a lot of luck to get such returns on sub 1 cent coins as there are plenty of good projects out there that go nowhere and plenty of sh1tcoins that do very well .

In the end if your in the crypto space then diversification still applies like it does in the stock market

Yup, that's basically what I was recommending. If you are going for the lottery mindset, then there are going to be coins that do 1000x. No cyring in the casino when it goes wrong

 

[lory]

I was one of those who laughed out loud when someone told me back then that Bitcoin would soon hit $100K. In hindsight, laughing instead of buying was probably a mistake.

 

[Martin Everson]

I was one of those who laughed out loud when someone told me back then that Bitcoin would soon hit $100K. In hindsight, laughing instead of buying was probably a mistake.

We may be back to this thread in some years when 1 BTC could be 550k and then claim 100k was a bargain .

 

[lory]

Yeah, if it actually hits 550K, I’ll eat my hat.

 

[void]

Yeah, if it actually hits 550K, I’ll eat my hat.

We may be back to this thread in some years when 1 BTC could be 550k and then claim 100k was a bargain .

guys, do you want to join my side bet club?

jokes aside... are you seriously considering a possibility that BTC will never reach 500k in USD? if so, that's insane, it can easily happen within a year, zero doubt in 10 years, can't you see what's going on in front of our eyes?

 

[369]

BTC will fail in the end when its purpose for bankers has passed
"Sathosi" holding 5%+ in his account has a clear purpose or is anyone here so naiv beliving BlackRock and Co would open ETF's not knowing which single "person" is holding nearly 10% (since big chunk of bitcoin are lost forever) and could dump the price anything to nirvana

 

[void]

BTC will fail in the end when its purpose for bankers has passed
"Sathosi" holding 5%+ in his account has a clear purpose or is anyone here so naiv beliving BlackRock and Co would open ETF's not knowing which single "person" is holding nearly 10% (since big chunk of bitcoin are lost forever) and could dump the price anything to nirvana

when will all that happen?

Best currency traders in the world are from china and japan and they are not buying btc but gold.
Also BTC will high probably hit somewhere arround 130k and latest end of march start its crash towards 22-25k

and this?

So we are entering into a debt crisis.
As you can see Trump already is implementing import tax and starts battling economicly with everyone.
In a debt crisis at the beginning USD gets very strong for a short period of time since nearly noone is able to take new debt and existing marging needs to be delivered expacially in a higher inflation scenario where interest goes higher instead of down.First divergance in history of USD already happened that FED cut interest rates by 100 points and the 10 year went up by 100 points meaning they are already predicting high rising interrest rates.

The date end of march comes from a fibonacci ciricle chart which delivers timeframes.
End of march is the latest date of a specific fibonacci circle which ALWAYS causes a heavy drop based on past history.
Of course if its going to be caused by debt crisis or a new war in middle east thats something i can't predict however i can tell there are bigger movements ahead and the debt crisis is more and more obvious but does not need to be the offical trigger to start the sell off.

and that?