New great financial crisis

[deepocean]

Hello,

I like to gauge your opinions on whether you think a new great financial crisis is coming in 2020 or 2021.
Personally, I am somewhat torn as I see strong recession signals that could escalate in a financial crisis and deep economic recession across the US, EU and Asia and Australia.
On the other hand, it seems to me that the FED is doing everything it can to avert a crisis, if needed even through negative interest rates. Personally, I think this situation could continue for some time, maybe even a long time.
E.g. Japan that has been in a stagnation since the 80s crisis, officially there is no financial crisis or great recession, but it is de-factor a zombie country with sever economic problems. I look forward to hearing your opinions!

 

[Martin Everson]

The US Fed is just the croupier at the table in the Casino - no more and no less. The problem is the game will come to an end at some point. Slowdowns are not in itself an indicator of a pending financial crisis. I wrote in another post that USD interest rates may go to -3%. When you consider the Swiss national Bank has been at -1.25% for a while and ECB at -0.40% this is not a wild claim.

However I don't know how good the traditional indicators of a recession are such as the inverted yield curve on US treasuries and commodity prices i.e copper demand.

I think a systemic problem i.e a problem with the US dollar system itself is more likely than a financial crisis and Trump is playing right into that by weaponizing the US dollar.

I think we are a long way from a crisis and will in fact see record highs in the S&P if interest rates go to nothing. The whole system however will come apart at the end of Trumps second term in office (if he wins re-election).

 

[Mr Magoo]

Trump is driving the US in the abyss as he did with his own businesses. Sad thing is that the full scale of the disaster will be visible under his successors presidency so he can wipe off responsibility in the same way he assumed the honors for the economic recovery he put on (short term) steroids with tax cuts and more debt. Even more sad is that he well may be elected a second term since I dont see a real contender on the democratic side that can take him on.

 

[Martin Everson]

Thats all true what you say. His actions now are based around a short term gain but ultimately a long term loss. In all likelihood he will be elected a second time. He just needs to put farmers on welfare and promise more spending. The democrats will probably end up selecting a nothing candidate.

If he is set to lose a second election he will just start WW3 and be like it "It's all yours democrats". Trump is not a person that will be humble in defeat or that will accept it. He will litigate, incite violence and leave office with country is chaos. He has the sort of fanatical support a cult leader has in some quarters.

 

[void]

The democrats will probably end up selecting a nothing candidate

there is always an option :-D John McAfee will be running for president again - such a beautiful dream :-|

 

[Martin Everson]

there is always an option :-D John McAfee will be running for president again - such a beautiful dream :-|

You mean this guy in exile in Cuba trying to avoid US Prison? Nothing wrong with dreaming I suppose.

John McAfee, Libertarian Party Presidential Hopeful, Is Running His Campaign-in-Exile from Cuba

 

[void]

You mean this guy in exile in Cuba trying to avoid US Prison?

yes, yes - that's the guy
life of agorist brings weird situations and difficult to understand image from the perspective of ordinary system compliant people - one simply can't believe everything published (especially not on the internet)

 

[Martin Everson]

Very true you can't believe everything published.

However I think his fate will be the same as Peter Schiff's dad - Irwin Schiff who had similar mentality on taxation. He should learn from his story.

 

[void]

Schiff's old man made his choice as well as all of us should - someone simply shuts up his mouth and lives comfy life in slavery, someone has an urge to fight publicly and there is also the whole scale in between these extremes - I'm far from telling people what they should do
look at some mcaffe's speeches, it's an hour well spend and you'll find out he is not an idiot

 

[Martin Everson]

My point is he is not ever becoming US president. He is certainly going to end up in US jail. How he has chosen to fight back against the system it pointless. You fight back by handing back your US passport, boycotting the U.S and US dollar. Money is only thing US respects.

P.S When you have lots of money like me (Mr MBS) you can get away with murder.....literally

 

[JohnLocke]

P.S When you have lots of money like me (Mr MBS) you can get away with murder.....literally

I'm not sure unless you are working for the government

 

[OTR365]

McAfee probably has a mild form of schizophrenia or some other sort of psychological dysfunction, which makes him think he is being hunted by the CIA/FBI, and being subject to assasination attempts. If the U.S. was after him, he would be in prison, not broadcasting from a tinfoil room.

Because he is entertaining, resourceful, possibly wealthy and definitely a good showman, the media loves to report about his fugitive dreams. This does not help him at all in coming to terms with his illness. Many who suffer from schizophrenia deny being ill at all.

He is fun to watch, though. His ex-neighbor in Belize migh not have agreed.