New route linking Russia - Iran - India

[Samman Kaseeb Sleiman]

How dare are Russia and Iran to build something together against the holy US' sanctions? And even get India involded in it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russia-iran-trade-corridor/

Especially I've liked the part "we're, US and the West, watching you, Russia".

Of course, you're watching. What else could you do about this route? It's none of your business.

 

[DarkRevoMan]

Interesting how Russia has declined so far that they now rely on countries like Iran and North Korea. They have such a large population, but do such a poor job of having any sort of national prosperity or local business scene. The most educated and capable citizens of these countries moving elsewhere, doesn't seem like a fixable problem.

 

[Martin Everson]

How dare are Russia and Iran to build something together against the holy US' sanctions? And even get India involded in it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-russia-iran-trade-corridor/

Especially I've liked the part "we're, US and the West, watching you, Russia".

Of course, you're watching. What else could you do about this route? It's none of your business.

It make sense for both countries long term. Iran has been under US sanctions for 43 years and is still there just like Cuba and North Korea - sanctions don't work in the long term. Likely Russia will now be under sanctions for the foreseeable future. So to join forces and continue to enhance existing trade, economic, scientific and military partnerships is in both parties mutual interest.

I said it before on here that the world is splitting into two spheres and with two independent financial systems. The western based dollar system will be up against a likely BRICS based system eventually. The days of a single USD based global financial system are numbered in the long run. Two systems in parallel will exist. And those who have the resources you will pay for using their financial system. Weaponizing sanctions and collective punishment is never a good idea long term.

 

[Samman Kaseeb Sleiman]

Interesting how Russia has declined so far that they now rely on countries like Iran and North Korea. They have such a large population, but do such a poor job of having any sort of national prosperity or local business scene. The most educated and capable citizens of these countries moving elsewhere, doesn't seem like a fixable problem.

Russia signs new multi-billions contracts with new countries - decline of Russia.

Russia deploys ultra-sonic missles with the technology that doesn't exist anywhere in the world, and won't for a foreseable future - decline of Russia.

Putin goes to a toilet - decline of Russia.

Russia now builds its own civil airplanes, luxury cars and has its own alternative to SWIFT - decline of Russia.

Putin eats an ice-cream - decline of Russia.

Saudi Arabia pivots towards Russia and China - decline of Russia.

Putin wakes up and yawns - decline of Russia.

Ukraine has no electricity - decline of Russia.

Africa makes new deals with Russia - decline of Russia.

Russia wins in Ukraine - decline of Russia.



So, what do you mean by "rely on"? And why do you call doing business with Iran and North Korean "decline"?
Some smart people has left Russia - correct, this isn't good.

 

[DarkRevoMan]

I call doing business with Iran and North Korea a decline because throughout history Russia has considered itself above these countries. When Russia was still the USSR they sent weapons, fertilizer, resources all over the world at low prices. Now, they are using these countries to receive military supply. The fact that they went from a huge army in Soviet times, to getting weapons from poor outdated backwater countries is a decline. Russia imports poorly made drones from Iran, and other material from NK.

Yes Ukraine doesn't have power, but that doesn't mean Ukraine is losing. Quite the opposite, the Russian army turned out to be vastly worse than the entire world thought. The arms they exported previously are not very good. For example the air defence is not effective against American HIMARS. Their basic military logistics for food, fuel, is terrible. The army's moral is terrible. The Russians have lost pretty much any ground they had captured.

Russia has difficulty making any complex military tech on their own. For example microchips, sensors, optics, electronics, etc. If you look at captured Russian military tech it has outdated Western consumer goods inside of it.

Making new deals with other countries isn't a victory for Russia, its a defeat. They are being cut off from the rest of the world and I don't think this trend will reverse for a long time.

Before the war I surely thought Russia was more powerful than it has proven to be. It is a global laughing stock at how pathetic they are. They went from the huge 'red army' threat, to a bunch of morons sent to their deaths by a leader who has 0 care for them.

 

[Martin Everson]

Sadly America thought it was powerful too but after 20 years it was humiliated again and defeated by a bunch of guys in sandals and turbans carrying RPG's and AK47's in Afghanistan. The Taliban are now firmly back in charge. After 20 years the US achieved zero after spending over 2 trillions dollars and throwing away thousands of U.S soldier lives it left with with nothing to show for it. It had to leave in a hurried humiliating way more embarrassing than Vietnam. The world saw this defeat and and the disorder of their withdrawal and realized the emperor was indeed naked. At this point some countries started to pivot and become wary of the U.S especially in the middle east. In the eyes of some people they questioned Americans strength too. The same questions will arise for Russia in due course if events follow its prior Afghan adventures.

However what Russia may achieve is a pivot point in history and in the global order. With global wealth moving east new and old trade routes are opening up. It's focus is now east and not west. New alliances and trading partners, blocks are being formed with Russia playing an important role. Russia is by far the biggest country on the planet by landmass and has resources (US is not even in the top 3) so Russia cannot simply be ignored and shut out. Isolation has not worked so far against Russia and is unlikely too. Sadly you cannot ignore or shutout the largest country on the planet so easily I am afraid.

Also people are focusing on the wrong things such as access to finance and military technology. No country such as Cuba, Iran or North Korea has collapsed because of lack of access to this although hardship is widespread. And U.S could not defeat the Taliban despite technological superiority. So putting things into perspective, avoiding emotions, dealing with reality and avoiding fantasy scenarios is important to understand the direction things are going in.

We are in interesting times......

 

[DarkRevoMan]

Sadly America thought it was powerful too but after 20 years it was humiliated again and defeated by a bunch of guys in sandals and turbans carrying RPG's and AK47's in Afghanistan. The Taliban are now firmly back in charge. After 20 years the US achieved zero after spending over 2 trillions dollars and throwing away thousands of U.S soldier lives it left with with nothing to show for it. It had to leave in a hurried humiliating way more embarrassing than Vietnam. The world saw this defeat and and the disorder of their withdrawal and realized the emperor was indeed naked. At this point some countries started to pivot and become wary of the U.S especially in the middle east. In the eyes of some people they questioned Americans strength too. The same questions will arise for Russia in due course if events follow its prior Afghan adventures.

However what Russia may achieve is a pivot point in history and in the global order. With global wealth moving east new and old trade routes are opening up. It's focus is now east and not west. New alliances and trading partners, blocks are being formed with Russia playing an important role. Russia is by far the biggest country on the planet by landmass and has resources (US is not even in the top 3) so Russia cannot simply be ignored and shut out. Isolation has not worked so far against Russia and is unlikely too. Sadly you cannot ignore or shutout the largest country on the planet so easily I am afraid.

Also people are focusing on the wrong things such as access to finance and military technology. No country such as Cuba, Iran or North Korea has collapsed because of lack of access to this although hardship is widespread. And U.S could not defeat the Taliban despite technological superiority. So putting things into perspective, avoiding emotions, dealing with reality and avoiding fantasy scenarios is important to understand the direction things are going in.

We are in interesting times......

I get what you're saying but I see it from the other perspective. I feel like global wealth was rising in the east, however things like Russia's war in Ukraine, how China dealt with covid, revealed it is not a sustainable place to store your wealth or live.

Not only that most eastern countries have major demographic problems (China will have a shrinking population soon due to uneven gender balance, huge amounts of their geography is problematic with things like sink holes). These geographic problems will get far worse due to climate change. Huge amounts of land in places like India will become almost uninhabitable.
Global wealth is rising in the east, but all the new wealthy people there want to get out as soon as they can due to instability, lack of freedoms, and climate driven migration.

Most likely the war in Russia was started due to these demographic problems. The population of Russia will shrink, resulting in a lower number of people that could participate in an invasion. Either they did it now, or their country withers away.

Cold countries will have a net positive impact from global warming (increased growing seasons, more houses will be able to be built, increased access to mineral deposits) then on top of that wealth will flood in from places seriously effected by climate change, pushing up asset prices.

In short wealth will rise in the east, and move west.

 

[Samman Kaseeb Sleiman]

I call doing business with Iran and North Korea a decline because throughout history Russia has considered itself above these countries.

The language you've used is the source of your mistake.


" throughout history" -- there you go. What period? Thousands of years? Hunderds?

During USSR? Alright. Then, this begs the questions:

* Is the modern-day Russia equal to USSR in every aspect?
* Is the Russian government nowadays, every politician in it, the same as it used to be in the era of USSR?
* Is the situation in the world identical to the one of that era?

* In what sense "above"? In every possible aspect? Or in some ones?
* Even if this is so, why do you think that modern-day Russia should think that it's disgusting to do business with someone who it looked from above in the past?



Even US, UK and Europe have been looking at Russia from above for the last dozens of years. But somehow, this has never scared them away from doing business with it.


50 years ago China was nobody. Nowadays is a superpower. Spain 200 years ago or so ruled the world. Nowadays it's an ordinary country.

Do you suggest that if in the past some countries had certain attitude towards others, then the same attitude should be applied to the modern day too?

Your logic applied to US, UK and EU: they have declined too because they're doing, and are dependent on, China. The China that they in the past, and even nowadays, consider themselves to be "above" of.

 

[DarkRevoMan]

The language you've used is the source of your mistake.


" throughout history" -- there you go. What period? Thousands of years? Hunderds?

During USSR? Alright. Then, this begs the questions:

* Is the modern-day Russia equal to USSR in every aspect?
* Is the Russian government nowadays, every politician in it, the same as it used to be in the era of USSR?
* Is the situation in the world identical to the one of that era?

* In what sense "above"? In every possible aspect? Or in some ones?
* Even if this is so, why do you think that modern-day Russia should think that it's disgusting to do business with someone who it looked from above in the past?



Even US, UK and Europe have been looking at Russia from above for the last dozens of years. But somehow, this has never scared them away from doing business with it.


50 years ago China was nobody. Nowadays is a superpower. Spain 200 years ago or so ruled the world. Nowadays it's an ordinary country.

Do you suggest that if in the past some countries had certain attitude towards others, then the same attitude should be applied to the modern day too?

Your logic applied to US, UK and EU: they have declined too because they're doing, and are dependent on, China. The China that they in the past, and even nowadays, consider themselves to be "above" of.

I disagree with a lot of this. For example USA isn't dependent on China for military gear (my original point with Russia is that they lack the capability to manufacture their own military gear because of sanctions. This shows a serious lack of innovation and local capabilities).

What exactly do Russia, Iran, and NK have to offer the world other than certain natural resources that you can get from elsewhere, and low grade military gear? I don't really see a reason these countries would 'gain' anything anytime soon.

 

[Samman Kaseeb Sleiman]

1)




2)

""
What exactly do Russia, Iran, and NK have to offer the world other than certain natural resources that you can get from elsewhere, and low grade military gear?
""

Firstly, Russia, Iran and NK don't "have to" offer the world anything because they don't owe the world.


Secondly, there some technological sectors in Russia that don't exist anywhere in the world. Or for some, there're only 2-3 countries that have alternatives. This is how much undeveloped and non-innovative Russia is:

* space exploration; engines and tech for spaceships; everything related to space;
* atomic space; atomic power plants
* different types of engines, toubines
* KAMAZ the truck - always wins Paris - Dakar rally
* metallurgy, mechanical engineering
* alternative to SWIFT - СПФС
* alternative to Visa/Master Card - Мир
* most innovative banks - Tinkoff

* alternative to Google - Yandex
* alternative to Youtube - RuTube
* some stuff in the medicine (I'd need to do a search)
* programmers and hackers -- one of the best in the world


* it's own civil airplane - Sukhoi SuperJet
* hyper-sonic missles (a few ones for which there're no alternatives at all and can't be intercepted) - Сармат/Satan, Avangard...

* GLONASS
* tank "Armata" - new generation; no alternatives in the world
* airplane Ту-160М2
* nuclear-powered icebreakers
* nuclear-powered submarines (biggest in the world; no alternatives in the world to some of them)
* cutting-edge figter jets of new generations (1 or a few...) -- which cost 1/10 of those in US yet are on par with them

* AK-47 - has been the best in the world for ... 50 years or so


* Pushkin, Dostoevsky, Lermontov, Tolstoy, Stalin .... and the like

Forgot:

* VK.com (alternative to Facebook; with free pirated music, by the way)
* Telegram
* Aurus Motors - luxury cars
* Baikal - microprocessors (getting started)
* And of course - Vodka

 

[Martin Everson]

What exactly do Russia, Iran, and NK have to offer the world other than certain natural resources that you can get from elsewhere, and low grade military gear? I don't really see a reason these countries would 'gain' anything anytime soon.

They are sovereign countries that are under no obligation to offer the world anything other than the international commitments they signed up to. Not sure why you said that.

You can read up a little about those countries technology wise. medicine, food and commodities etc. They are also not as backwards countries scientifically in practice. All three countries have launched satellites into space - the later two despite heavy sanctions. They all have space programs so could be business opportunity there for developing countries to collaborate outside high priced western services in areas of satellite communication etc. They also all have civilian nuclear programs and NK and Russia have hypersonic missile programs despite sanctions.

I would not characterize them as having "low grade military gear". The systems they have just have to be able to do the job with accuracy. Not even U.S General Mckenzie would describe Iran's basic ballistic missiles as low grade but he said.... "their missiles are accurate" after striking Al Asad Airbase from range with pin point accuracy. See below.

Don't think Saudi's would say that either about the pin point accuracy of Iranian drones hitting their oil facilities at range from Yemen - it did the job. Don't let the media fool you with selective stories designed to re-enforce a specific narrative - focus on the end result.

P.S You can see below how NK, Russian and Iranian technology linked together years ago gained Iran a successful satellite launch while under sanctions. And now NK is launching its satellites. There is a lot the media is selective about reporting .

P.S Back to topic. The new trade route outside west I would like to see how U.S responds to the reality that the world is moving on without them, doing business without their money and no longer reliant on them....lol.

 

[Scorpy]

Russia signs new multi-billions contracts with new countries - decline of Russia.

Russia deploys ultra-sonic missles with the technology that doesn't exist anywhere in the world, and won't for a foreseable future - decline of Russia.

Putin goes to a toilet - decline of Russia.

Russia now builds its own civil airplanes, luxury cars and has its own alternative to SWIFT - decline of Russia.

Putin eats an ice-cream - decline of Russia.

Saudi Arabia pivots towards Russia and China - decline of Russia.

Putin wakes up and yawns - decline of Russia.

Ukraine has no electricity - decline of Russia.

Africa makes new deals with Russia - decline of Russia.

Russia wins in Ukraine - decline of Russia.



So, what do you mean by "rely on"? And why do you call doing business with Iran and North Korean "decline"?
Some smart people has left Russia - correct, this isn't good.

Putin eats ice creams and yawns? I thought he was better than that.

Man Russia is really going downhill if this is true.

 

[GPT]

Yes Ukraine doesn't have power, but that doesn't mean Ukraine is losing. Quite the opposite, the Russian army turned out to be vastly worse than the entire world thought. The arms they exported previously are not very good. For example the air defence is not effective against American HIMARS. Their basic military logistics for food, fuel, is terrible. The army's moral is terrible. The Russians have lost pretty much any ground they had captured.

I guess its all based on which media to believe. I can find stories that support either side of this. To be so firm, as you do... please enlighten me about your sources.

 

[Samman Kaseeb Sleiman]

All being equal, if one doesn't speak russian, it's way harder to find out what's going on in Russia.

Even if one is neutral, he'll naturally bump into more news that spead s**hit about Russia, and also China, Iran, others... rather than the ones that praize or that make fare statements about them.



"Putin is a black lord who sits on the throne stroking his crystal ball laughing. Other russians are his hostages who are desperately trying to flee the country for good". This sort of nonsense.

But there're even russians who think this way too I'd say. That's how good US and EU propaganda have been.

 

[DarkRevoMan]

I guess its all based on which media to believe. I can find stories that support either side of this. To be so firm, as you do... please enlighten me about your sources.

Honestly, I'm in the defence field, and I didn't expect this war to go that bad for Russia. I honestly thought that Russia would win pretty quick with minimal push back. I thought Ukrainian resistance or support from the world wouldn't be nearly as strong as it is. Its very impressive to see a country like Ukraine come together with the world behind it.

There are many more weaknesses, but if you want to look into them yourself here is a good start:

- Lack of air superiority and the importance of this in warfare. You can compare how America took control of the skies of Iraq very quickly before even setting a foot. Or how Israel took control of the skies during the first phase of the six day war. This should have been a model for Russia's war (its against their neighbour for a year - still no air superiority from either side).
Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in terms of air power. They should have easily won the skies in the first few days if they had any fighting ability.

- Allowing NCOs and lower level officers more independence and decision making. This is HUGE. In most western countries post WW2, they learned to give lower level troops and officers a lot of say in how things go. This is different from how the Russians control things from the top down. Most autocratic countries have a top down approach to prevent revolutions within. In most democratic countries the lower level soldiers on the ground make decisions on the go. In the Russian military the leaders just send them wherever and tell them to hold the position or whatever. This is what the British and others did pre-WW2 before entire units were totally wiped out and they realized how poor this approach works.
"In the United States armed services, it is said that the Non-Commissioned Officers and the junior officers are the backbones."

- Modern logistics and supply of materials. They can't helicopter drop things like they should be able to, their logistics depends on railway lines (lol), no palettes to transport things in bulk meaning ammo depos are a mess and the most dangerous place in the world.

- Sending their military trainers to the front lines, meaning the Russian military will be permanently changed by this war, and it will further decrease their combat effectiveness if they were to fight another war. Additionally, with the demographics of Russia (decreasing population) it even further decreases their ability to fight in the next war.

- Use of low quantity and expensive missiles to target civilians rather than military targets. Although the plan of these attacks is to lower troop morale, it does the opposite. This effect is proven from the WW2 bombings on London. The 'near miss' effect of surviving a blast actually causes a net morale increase, meaning they are spending expensive weapons to INCREASE the morale of Ukraine.


If you go through those conflicts and the lessons learned from each, you will see how Russia's tactics are unchanged from over a hundred years ago. What a joke.

Keep in mind, I'm not an American, and before the war I was condo shopping in Russia. That doesn't change the fact that objectively, this war is a complete mess for Russia.

 

[GPT]

Honestly, I'm in the defence field, and I didn't expect this war to go that bad for Russia. I honestly thought that Russia would win pretty quick with minimal push back. I thought Ukrainian resistance or support from the world wouldn't be nearly as strong as it is. Its very impressive to see a country like Ukraine come together with the world behind it.

There are many more weaknesses, but if you want to look into them yourself here is a good start:

- Lack of air superiority and the importance of this in warfare. You can compare how America took control of the skies of Iraq very quickly before even setting a foot. Or how Israel took control of the skies during the first phase of the six day war. This should have been a model for Russia's war (its against their neighbour for a year - still no air superiority from either side).
Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in terms of air power. They should have easily won the skies in the first few days if they had any fighting ability.

- Allowing NCOs and lower level officers more independence and decision making. This is HUGE. In most western countries post WW2, they learned to give lower level troops and officers a lot of say in how things go. This is different from how the Russians control things from the top down. Most autocratic countries have a top down approach to prevent revolutions within. In most democratic countries the lower level soldiers on the ground make decisions on the go. In the Russian military the leaders just send them wherever and tell them to hold the position or whatever. This is what the British and others did pre-WW2 before entire units were totally wiped out and they realized how poor this approach works.
"In the United States armed services, it is said that the Non-Commissioned Officers and the junior officers are the backbones."

- Modern logistics and supply of materials. They can't helicopter drop things like they should be able to, their logistics depends on railway lines (lol), no palettes to transport things in bulk meaning ammo depos are a mess and the most dangerous place in the world.

- Sending their military trainers to the front lines, meaning the Russian military will be permanently changed by this war, and it will further decrease their combat effectiveness if they were to fight another war. Additionally, with the demographics of Russia (decreasing population) it even further decreases their ability to fight in the next war.

- Use of low quantity and expensive missiles to target civilians rather than military targets. Although the plan of these attacks is to lower troop morale, it does the opposite. This effect is proven from the WW2 bombings on London. The 'near miss' effect of surviving a blast actually causes a net morale increase, meaning they are spending expensive weapons to INCREASE the morale of Ukraine.


If you go through those conflicts and the lessons learned from each, you will see how Russia's tactics are unchanged from over a hundred years ago. What a joke.

Keep in mind, I'm not an American, and before the war I was condo shopping in Russia. That doesn't change the fact that objectively, this war is a complete mess for Russia.

i guess we have different sources. Im also not American

Based on my sources, I have a hard time believing Ukraine is “winning” insofar one can ever speak from winning a war.

Time will tell and in the mean time I wish for a quick solution. People have suffered enough already.