Not as old as you.
You couldn't have given me a worse example. Buffet has been unwinding all his China bets over the last year and a half. That video you sent is also about something entirely else. It's about doing your own research instead of blindly copying others. Buffet is an investor, he buys good companies and holds them forever preferably.
I was talking about options trading and am more focused on shorting scams these days. There were multiple events over the last years that proved to be incredibly profitable for someone like buying puts on the SPY before COVID hit and buying puts on CAML right before the Russian invasion, both events where the leading opinion / consience in the West vastly differed from reality, the same can apply in reverse. Your ROI on one of these bets can exceed 100x.
Your argument paired with a video is just lazy, maybe just try and put into words what your argument is in your own words. I have to send sources here or I there will be accusations of not "stating facts" or people will scream propaganda so here:
"
In today’s CNBC interview, Buffet said BYD is “extraordinary” and TSMC is a “fabulous enterprise” but the geopolitical risk between these two companies’ home bases has become too big to ignore.
The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan as its own, a claim Taiwan rejects. Tensions between Beijing and the democratically governed island have been rising in recent months,
fueling speculations that a war may soon break out between the two regions.
“I re-evaluated
that part of it,” Buffet said of his decision to reduce holdings in TSMC. “I didn’t re-evaluate the business, the management, or anything of the sort.”
“We’ll find things to do with the money that I’ll feel better about,” Buffett said of BYD."
"
Lay-offs by tech leaders like Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi Corp. have exacerbated a jobs crisis in China, pushing youth unemployment to about 20 per cent.
In recent quarters, SoftBank’s Son has been vocal in his rising concerns about the China market. After watching the value of Alibaba plunge, he pulled back on new investments in addition to selling shares in the e-commerce giant.
“We have reduced the China dependency in our portfolio, therefore we believe we don’t have to worry too much about the situation in China,” he said during an earnings call in May."
Once again, old articles that predicted a crash in the past that failed to happen does not mean it won't happen now. All I am saying is that betting on China is very risky due to (geo)political risk and that it is
likely that they have peaked and will experience a slowdown over the coming decades. I am not really talking about a crash that suddenly kills the country...
Your income seems to depend on China so I won't expect you to give a fair assessment of the situation there anyway. It's obvious you are in love with China, you stated that it's your favourite place in the world, it has probably made you very wealthy, it has been kind to you. I don't think you are the right person to look at the country fair and square. This is not about you or your experience in the upper echelons of Chinese society, the Lamborghini owning Chinese entrepreneurs who can't get enough of the high-life thinking they are incredibly smart, or the self-righteous political class expecting ever greater things, it's about the economic state of a nation supported by facts and figures, the problems that seem to be present and unfold and the likelihood the rulers of said nation will solve those problems.
Events over the future will unfold that prove some people in this thread wrong, and some will be proven right. Some people have put their money where their mouth is, some have not. If you are not interested in the intellectual game that is trying to predict the future just don't participate in the discussion. I hold no personal grudges against countries.
