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What website are you using to predict cryptocurrencies?

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erni

Mentor Group Gold
Is there any particular website you are using to predict cryptocurrencies?

I know some of you are very good to predict what time it would be best to pay someone else in bitcoins, you always pay once it is high and keep it while it is low.
 

otcable

Online Private Finance
There is not an answer to that. This is a highly manipulated market so no prediction will have real value.

If you want to avoid volatility use stable coins on digital payments and exchange when you need to pay.
 

thirtyniner

New member
There is not an answer to that. This is a highly manipulated market so no prediction will have real value.

If you want to avoid volatility use stable coins on digital payments and exchange when you need to pay.

@otcable , in 2017 when I invested in Crypto, there was only USDT. Which stable coins are there at this moment (or currency linked coins)?
 

Frank N Stein

New member
If there was such a website then crypto would not be worth trading at all. Even the best traders and speculators will say you can't predict the price of anything with 100% certainty.
 

khinkali

New member
The efficient market hypothesis is not that the future price will be the current price, it's that the current price reflects the current information.

A roulette wheel can come up red, black or green. In hindsight it's always obvious when you should have bet on black. You can see many people looking at technical indicators such as which numbers have come up more often, or which numbers haven't, but in reality very few people can really predict it successfully.

In the short term you can find small market inefficiencies for say USD-BTC and big inefficiencies in smaller markets, but if someone has advanced knowledge of big price movements on big markets they're not going to put them on a website. If they did (and were repeatedly correct) then this information would be reflected in the price.
 

KJK

Entrepreneur
My humble opinion:

- technical analysis for cryptos is total bullshit. I always see charts analyzed in hindsight, never have I seen a clear and successful prediction. The "traders" always call two possible "scenarios", either it will go up or it will go down. Fuck, I can make that prediction!
- technical analysis for stocks is mostly wishful thinking
- technical analysis for some specific areas - forex and commodities - may make sense but it is not as easy as you think.

- efficient market hypothesis is also bullshit. If the markets were 100% efficient, how is it possible that people like Ed Thorp, Jim Simons or George Soros exist? I'm not including Warren Buffett because according to efficient market hypothesis it is still possible he is just an extremely lucky guy who was in the right place at the right time and then once again was pretty lucky in the following decades.

Back to Bitcoin - I believe Bitcoin operates in something I'd call "cycles" or maybe "fractals". The rules are set in stone and similar situations repeat, only on larger and larger scales. Of course this most importantly includes the halving and the 4-year cycles.

With all that, I'm afraid Bitcoin (and all other coins) is also easy to manipulate and to influence the price - with futures, options and with exchanges themselves. Do you know what are the possibilities of Bitfinex (and their Tether) or Bittrex (and their 100x leverage)? I have no idea but I'm pretty sure they could crash the entire cryptoeconomy if they really wanted.

So the benchmark you can aspire to beat is simply "buy and hodl". You can expect the price of BTC to increase in USD terms if the monetary supply will increase. If you cannot beat this benchmark, it doesn't make a lot of sense to trade crypto.
 
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