For me to get out of BTC without loss it must rise to 28k$
This is not a liquidity event. It is a bear market. What you mean by a liquidity event is actually a market capitulation, which we have not yet seen. The term liquidity event is really defined as a corporate activity in which illiquid assets such as shares are made liquid and distributed to business owners and investors.In a liquidity event, its normal all assets except usd goes down initially. Even the great gold does that.
This year is highly deflationary for example. The CPI numbers are backward looking.
I keep the short position based on price,i was short from about 55000 on the way down.Which is currently closed.I closed out on breach of 22k on the upside( I am willing to lose the last eighth -probably i lost out a bit more of my profits as the stops had to be large to participate in the trend).I am waiting on the sidelines to see which way this goes.I will trade as per the line of least resistance.However in a bear market there is always a sucker rally- I go with probabilities and price action( I still think this will go down to 12 k,but i place my shorts when the price action confirms it).Any hypothesis can change based on fundamentals and fundamentals change all the time.But price action is the truth.If there is no confirmation of the hypothesis by the price action i am out.I will reinitiate the shorts if price action confirms, and can also go long when price action confirms it. I am not married either to the bull or the bear side.I dont care which way it goes.If i make money i am happy so i trade along the line of least resistance.Even if the market goes nowhere even then i am fine as i can make money on the straddles,strangles,butterflies and Iron condors
It is a liquidity event. Just look at the balance sheet growth of cb and m2 etc etc.This is not a liquidity event. It is a bear market. What you mean by a liquidity event is actually a market capitulation, which we have not yet seen. The term liquidity event is really defined as a corporate activity in which illiquid assets such as shares are made liquid and distributed to business owners and investors.
Gold only went negative within the last month because of super strong USD strength. It held its value until quite recently while everything else lost value.
Ya the money printing part is correlated with Gold ,i cannot comment on the other points as they are too complex for me to comment on.I like to make money based on simple things,simple logic.I am not interested much in the why as long as i have a basic hypothesis i am fine, i am interested in when a particular trend plays out and make money based on it.It is a liquidity event. Just look at the balance sheet growth of cb and m2 etc etc.
All contracting this year.
Gold has been going down for months already and will stay so until money printing resumes.
It just happened. Bitcoin just broke out of a two-month bear flag, which I identified back on July 14th (in post #33). It broke out to the downside. Of course, fundamentals always take precedence over technical analysis.
Ya closed my longs at 21 k after getting long at 24 k which i any way didnt have much conviction on because it was a sucker rally as mentioned before by me as well but since i trade the price i could not have had disagreed with the existing price trend so had to take a small long position which i have closed out now- I didnt exactly know how long the sucker rally would play out (as markets can stay irrational much longer than you and i can remain solvent) hence had taken a fifth of my position on the long side keeping with my 2% loss rule of account equity.Will go short at 20400 with a stop of 21k again for a target of 12k.I never like the whipsaws but they are a part of speculating professionally.A cost for doing business.It just happened. Bitcoin just broke out of a two-month bear flag, which I identified back on July 14th (in post #33). It broke out to the downside. Of course, fundamentals always take precedence over technical analysis.
A significant bearish breakdown of the parallel channel/bear flag has begun. The triple bearish divergence and decreasing volume is now playing out. As usual, we need patience to see what the follow through price action looks like. Will we see a backtest of the channel as resistance or do we...www.tradingview.com
Now, at it's lowest would be around 17k, but the bear will not be around for ever, the bull will come and everyone will regret, yet again, that they didn't invest.What would be a good time to buy BTC again? maybe now while it is lower or would you predict it to go even lower than what it is right now 21.1K ?