General sentiment towards BTC if we enter a crysis

[Calyx]

Assuming we go 2008 again soon, what do you guys think the general sentiment towards btc will be? Some of us see it as a hedge against in inflation and an escape from the system (I'm personally cautiously optimistic about it), but historically the crypto market took dives when the market took dives. Many people still see it as speculation and would drop it in fear.

I wander also if any panic would last long since probably the banks would get bailed out anyway. So any negative outcome would be more like a slow bleeding to death(by QE) than a quick axe to the head (the market weeding out the reckless).

 

[JackAlabama]

Assuming we go 2008 again soon, what do you guys think the general sentiment towards btc will be? Some of us see it as a hedge against in inflation and an escape from the system (I'm personally cautiously optimistic about it), but historically the crypto market took dives when the market took dives. Many people still see it as speculation and would drop it in fear.

I wander also if any panic would last long since probably the banks would get bailed out anyway. So any negative outcome would be more like a slow bleeding to death(by QE) than a quick axe to the head (the market weeding out the reckless).

Well the problem is: You clearly do not own stocks or 'non-existent' cash balance in your bank.
If you were a credit suisse bond holder, it has just been taken away form you.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I prefer btc to virtual toilet paper, as the latter can’t even be used for the original intended purpose.

 

[Martin Everson]

Assuming we go 2008 again soon, what do you guys think the general sentiment towards btc will be? Some of us see it as a hedge against in inflation and an escape from the system (I'm personally cautiously optimistic about it), but historically the crypto market took dives when the market took dives. Many people still see it as speculation and would drop it in fear.

It could be at 100k end of year or 10k. It is still a speculative asset.

I wander also if any panic would last long since probably the banks would get bailed out anyway. So any negative outcome would be more like a slow bleeding to death(by QE) than a quick axe to the head (the market weeding out the reckless).

Instability in banking world is not going anywhere. We still got US debt ceiling issue also coming up. Imagine a partial default.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/debt-priorities-00087834
Imagine i.e a 30-50% write-down in the value of US Treasuries. If you think SVG was bad (with their US treasury holdings devaluation) imagine all the investment funds, pension funds and banks that hold US treasuries and that are leveraged or use it as collateral. It would cause a global systematic problem. As an investor do you offload your treasuries? Do you wait and see what bills pass? Do you rule out mentally all possibility of a default or cross your fingers? lol.

 

[khinkali]

As an investor do you offload your treasuries?

Not until Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell start using the word "transitory". As soon as you hear that, dump it all!

 

[Martin Everson]

lol....true.

But who knows where BTC price will go. I don't think a strong bullish or bearish conviction works in a crypto market that is pump and dump and is the wild west.

 

[khinkali]

@Martin Everson I agree. Volatility is likely in that scenario, but in either direction.

At uncertain times, crypto often sees a short flight from alt coins to BTC, followed by a BTC dump to fiat. When every financial asset drops, where do you run to? As Buffett says, people will continue to buy Pepsi and See's Candies.

I'd be ready for a flight to PAXG if it weren't for such pronounced regulatory uncertainty in the USA. I wish there were a well run gold-backed token in some credible jurisdiction such as Singapore.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

lol....true.

But who knows where BTC price will go. I don't think a strong bullish or bearish conviction works in a crypto market that is pump and dump and is the wild west.

You are right, fiat is extremely volatile nowadays. However, it’s a mathematical certainty that all fiat will eventually have no value, whereas btc remains stable.