1.stagflation is men made same as covid and all other bs for the big transformationI agree with the first part of your post but I’m mixed regarding the second one.
The inflation burden is not solely originating from decades-long low interest environment but also from supply chain, and the bottlenecks are easing to a certain extent now. Either way what’s the limit for money creation? Why should there be a limit to print money? This can keep going for centuries.
We do forecast a potential decade long stagflation period with moderate to high inflation paired with low economic growth but at the end of the day there is still a lot of room for prices to go higher over the long run, including bullish periods and crashes.
More and more people invest into ETFs, bringing market valuations to all time high levels. As long as individuals and instituons invest in global stock markets it will keep going up. Developed and emerging countries get increasingly access to brokers / banks and capable of investing internationally.
The global population keeps on increasing year after year. There is a shortage of housing in the US and especially Europe. We are still far from seeing a real estate market crash (in Europe at least) as people can take a higher percentage of debt versus income, take 30 year old mortgages instead of 20 (in HK the average is 35 to 40…!) so as you can see there is a lot of leeway ahead still.
Capitalism is here to stay
2.stagflation=inflation on major goods and a decreasing econemy .If you have been teached oldschool econemy you know that nearly everything on the world is way over priced.
Remember on RE for example there needs to be a minimum of 5% yield to be ok.If the yield of 5% can't be uphold because people have no more money than there is only one way to get it back which is lowering the RE prices.
RE prices already tanked as stock which means it will hit RE market in arround 6-8 months.
People can invest in ETF's ,Pro's will short the s**t out of it.
Remember groups with peoples money mostly perform badly as they are being used to let the "elite" exit on your loss.All governmental investment plans perform so bad because of this reality.
Only problem most ETF's are in western companies invested which will have a heavy decline.They will move from overpriced to underpriced.There was a nice research which proofed that high stock prices are being pumped by 95% margins.Developed and emerging countries get increasingly access to brokers / banks and capable of investing internationally.
Lets see the shortage in 2025.The global population keeps on increasing year after year. There is a shortage of housing in the US and especially Europe.
All i see is that people can now take lower amount of loans than before and that their savings are decreasing massivly because of high inflationas people can take a higher percentage of debt versus income, take 30 year old mortgages instead of 20 (in HK the average is 35 to 40…!) so as you can see there is a lot of leeway ahead still.
In Europe you already have communismCapitalism is here to stay
Also a nice note 98% of all millionaires in germany are based on RE.
You take RE prices you whipe out like 97% of all millionaires.