Investment in Gold, can it pay off?

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Martin Everson

Offshore Retiree
Staff member
Mentor Group Gold
Elite Member
I have long wondered if it pays to buy gold for a 50K euro - what is the time horizon for when I can expect a return?

What sort of return are you expecting?

Depending on your expected return you could be waiting anything from 24hrs to the next ice age and everything in between.
 

Golden Fleece

Entrepreneur
I have long wondered if it pays to buy gold for a 50K euro - what is the time horizon for when I can expect a return?
If gold backs the next world reserve currency, either in whole or in part, gold could very well go to $10k to $15k per ounce, or more. The big question is the time horizon for such a development.
 

rolex

New member
I personally think gold is less of an 'investment' that you expect returns on, and more of a asset in which you hold to protect yourself against inflation etc.
 

Silvio

Entrepreneur
Gold is a long-term hold. 10+ years. If you decide on investing make sure you have access to it, gold that you don't see does not exist.
If you bought Gold in 1981 and held until 2000 you lost 80% of your investment. Gold is not a protection against inflation.
Since middle of 2020 inflation has been raging but Gold is 14% down from the peak.
If you bought in 2011 you waited 11 years and are still under water.

Gold is not an investment. It's insurance against total system collapse.

If you're one of the tinfoil-hat people that believe that the collapse is just around the corner, buy Gold. Take into account that it will not produce any income and in fact it will cost you to hold it in custody, and most likely you will lose money by holding it.

If you're a sane person, read about portfolio diversification and realize that Gold should maybe be 1-5% of your portfolio at best. Good luck.
 

diatessaron

Silver Member
If you bought Gold in 1981 and held until 2000 you lost 80% of your investment. Gold is not a protection against inflation.
Since middle of 2020 inflation has been raging but Gold is 14% down from the peak.
If you bought in 2011 you waited 11 years and are still under water.

Gold is not an investment. It's insurance against total system collapse.

If you're one of the tinfoil-hat people that believe that the collapse is just around the corner, buy Gold. Take into account that it will not produce any income and in fact it will cost you to hold it in custody, and most likely you will lose money by holding it.

If you're a sane person, read about portfolio diversification and realize that Gold should maybe be 1-5% of your portfolio at best. Good luck.
You don't invest based on the what ifs of the past. If this reply was directed at me it makes no sense.
 

Silvio

Entrepreneur
You don't invest based on the what ifs of the past. If this reply was directed at me it makes no sense.
"You don't invest based on the what ifs of the past"
You mean you don't invest based on the historical performance of the asset? rof/%

Love it, you must be a great investor. Share with us more of your wisdom please rof/%
 

diatessaron

Silver Member
"You don't invest based on the what ifs of the past"
You mean you don't invest based on the historical performance of the asset? rof/%

Love it, you must be a great investor. Share with us more of your wisdom please
I've worked on algorithms build around historical performance dead:-! and they've been a massive failure thu&¤#. Compared to the rest? The worst.

Let me get this straight, you open a chart, see it dipped 22 years ago and make decisions based on that? That smells like poor. "Historical performance does not indicate future results", I'm not the one who said that. First it was the markets that did and second whoever noticed.

I am a great investor indeed. For example, minutes before Coinbase listed GMT I bought a load at an average of 3.49. I then went and sold it at 3.98, 4.02 and 4.1. I wasn't lucky, in this case I had a bot scanning for new wallets, it notified me.

Elon Musk made a post last July. I bought minutes after the post, when everyone was crying about it being a bear market, sold 3 months later at massive profit.

Oh he wants to buy Twitter? That's a long for DOGE.
Oh the deal might not go through? That's a short for DOGE.
Oh X capital filled their wallet with NEAR? That's a long. They sold 4 million? That's a short.

I hope it helps, if you can do that you will stop drawing random lines on charts and make real money.
 

Silvio

Entrepreneur
I've worked on algorithms build around historical performance dead:-! and they've been a massive failure thu&¤#. Compared to the rest? The worst.

Let me get this straight, you open a chart, see it dipped 22 years ago and make decisions based on that? That smells like poor. "Historical performance does not indicate future results", I'm not the one who said that. First it was the markets that did and second whoever noticed.

I am a great investor indeed. For example, minutes before Coinbase listed GMT I bought a load at an average of 3.49. I then went and sold it at 3.98, 4.02 and 4.1. I wasn't lucky, in this case I had a bot scanning for new wallets, it notified me.

Elon Musk made a post last July. I bought minutes after the post, when everyone was crying about it being a bear market, sold 3 months later at massive profit.

Oh he wants to buy Twitter? That's a long for DOGE.
Oh the deal might not go through? That's a short for DOGE.
Oh X capital filled their wallet with NEAR? That's a long. They sold 4 million? That's a short.

I hope it helps, if you can do that you will stop drawing random lines on charts and make real money.
I take my words back, you're a genius.

We are honored to have such a wizard algotrader in our forum, thank you for sharing your brilliance with us poor plebs. Sounds like you are actually Kenny Griffin undercover with all these genius trades.... BUYING at 3.49 and selling at 4.1?! Maybe an admin can check your IP and verify if you're messaging us from the Citadel HQ. Most creepto bot traders I know got crushed and you probably got crushed as well, you just don't tell us about it like most of the creepto people that only boast about their winners but are secretly holding giant bags of shitcoins they bought that never recovered.

Back to the subject now: even assuming you are the algotrader wizard you say you are, when building a long-term portfolio there is no edge in 10+ predictions beyond the historical correlation and performance of the asset. And Gold failed as a hedge against inflation both in 2021-2022, since 1980 until 2000 and if you're buying it right now you're buying it at ATH, which is imho very risky. But hey, I'm sure you can build a bot that looks for people posting "$GLD" in Twitter and buy the dip based on that.
 

diatessaron

Silver Member
I take my words back, you're a genius.

We are honored to have such a wizard algotrader in our forum, thank you for sharing your brilliance with us poor plebs. Sounds like you are actually Kenny Griffin undercover with all these genius trades.... BUYING at 3.49 and selling at 4.1?! Maybe an admin can check your IP and verify if you're messaging us from the Citadel HQ. Most creepto bot traders I know got crushed and you probably got crushed as well, you just don't tell us about it like most of the creepto people that only boast about their winners but are secretly holding giant bags of shitcoins they bought that never recovered.

Back to the subject now: even assuming you are the algotrader wizard you say you are, when building a long-term portfolio there is no edge in 10+ predictions beyond the historical correlation and performance of the asset. And Gold failed as a hedge against inflation both in 2021-2022, since 1980 until 2000 and if you're buying it right now you're buying it at ATH, which is imho very risky. But hey, I'm sure you can build a bot that looks for people posting "$GLD" in Twitter and buy the dip based on that.
You earn the award today. Congratulations.

You can't live life based on what ifs and assumptions. Nobody was talking about gold being a hedge against inflation, OP didn't ask if gold is a good hedge against inflation, nor did I say it is. The way his question was asked, it clearly is a for profit investment (the safest in history), not a fight against cotton farms. Don't steer the topic somewhere else, create a new one if you need help.

You don't know if you're buying it at ATH, if you do you might as well start reading palms down the street. Supply and demand. Gold is always in high demand. It's not a speculative asset, nor can you print 10 billion tons out of thin air. It's a fixed supply that keeps going down.

Since you like what ifs and clowning around, what if you bought gold in 2004? What if you sold the top?

You say most bot traders you know got crushed and assume I got crushed too, at least read my posts, don't skim through them. Algo trader? Forest druid? Bruh, you keep adding stuff.

I present to you the perfect example, one of the largest trading firms in crypto sells 4 million NEAR on the 8th of April.
1.PNG

At that same date the top was marked:
Capture.PNG


As for my losses, -3000% on LUNA. I longed SUSHI at 9 dollars, kept adding until it liquidated me at 4, -584%. I bought UNI at the top last year. Longed AXS at 130, got liquidated, went from +6 digits to -6 digits.
 

Rzeznik

New member
Gold is not an investment. It's insurance against total system collapse.
Yea - but today is quite ok speculative play with proper risk/reward:
1) everything went up copper/wood/coal - yea not gold (this one was not making x3 like other commodities)
2) is close to ATH that is good once it breake old top will go higher for some time

-
from my perspective physical gold sucks you buy with 3% premium then sell -5% spot, you can try find people on your own but market reality is in our facoure here. ETFs are much better and liquid.
Gold as insurance in home is ok but sucks as investment 0% cashflow.
Anyway currently is good place to be in I have put my bet on it if stock market collapse a bit then people will park some money elsewhere. Bonds are crashing / SNP falls then some people will put a bit into gold and that should be ok to keep it rolling up like any commodity.
There is no guarantee of winning but good risk/reward, price chart is ok too for safer play maybe going big time in would be closer to 2k again.

What if you sold the top?
BTW it also depends when you live if you live in US then USD is ok.
While in Poland 1oz for 4500PLN is now 9000PLN... in 3 years.
I don't even try compare it to LRY in Turkey.

PS:Arguing about price in year is like telling people if will be raining in London in 30 days from now we just gamble.
 
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