Factors to consider:
- The pandemic radicalized a big portion of the population, especially after the monumental f**k up the french government did while handling the yellow vest protests in 2018. A big part of the "working class" hates Macron now. They'll never vote for Macron, while a lot of the radicalized voters that went towards right-wing ideologies will gladly vote for LePen, especially as Zemmour told his supporters to vote for LePen.
- Macron is largely supported by the parisians who always had an elitist mentality and a tendency to "vote for the least worst of the two", as well as a portion of the "boomers".
- Melenchon and Macron are the same, on paper they may have different ideologies but their agenda is exactly the same. They could create an alliance but even then, a lot of Melenchon's voters will never vote for Macron due to ideological differences. Can't ask marxists, anarchists and other left-wing extremists that make up a large portion of Melenchon's supporters to vote for an ex-Rothschild banker.
- Macron vs Lepen for a second time in a row will discourage a lot of people from voting, which could hurt Macron more than LePen. Far-right supporters, working class folks, will see this as their golden opportunity for a change of government, and may vote en masse for Le Pen.
- Never compare Paris voters with the rest of France, different ways of thinking, different mentality, a lot of media sources who claim Macron will have an easy win simply base themselves on the Paris vote.