@Martin Everson
I fully agree Gibraltar is a no-go zone until Brexit affairs are a little more clear. It's not impossible that Gibraltar will vote for Spanish control. Currently, they want to stay in the UK (90%+ support), but things can change rapidly when the border closes and the UK is not there to negotiate on their behalf from within the EU. They also voted (90%+ support) to remain in the EU, so it can come to a point where they're given one of two options.
Which option is better for Gibraltar? If I lived in Gibraltar, I'd probably vote for Spain under the following (most likely) conditions.
1. Become a part of Spain:
- When Spain allows Gibraltar to stay a special zone with business-friendly laws and regulation. Spain is high tax, high regulation, but then again, they have special zones like Ceuta and Melilla
- The border remains open. Gib-Esp mixed families can visit one-another without problems; well fed Gib bureaucrats can comfortably live in their Spanish villas
- Full EUEA access through Spanish membership
2. Stay in the UK despite:
- UK treating them like crap by not inviting them to negotiations with Madrid
- Closed border. Family drama; commuter issues; the bureaucrats must get by in much smaller condos/houses
- Zero, or highly conditional EUEA access through the EU-UK treaty which could take years to achieve. EU-Canada deal took 10 years.
Right now, Madrid has an unprecedented opportunity to take full control of Gibraltar after more than 300 years. The only mistake they can make is to force all Spanish tax rates and regulations on Gibraltar which would reduce the place to a nasty rat nest like Algeciras.
For the UK, assuming they crash out without a treaty, the best deal is to try and sell Gibraltar to Spain to get some money out of it before it's gone for free.