Yeah although me and Golden Fleeces approach probably differ a lot and there is lot of analysis here( and i dont like to dish out too much blah blah)-but this is bang on.Bear market isn't over yet -neither in stocks nor crypto - it aint over till the last Bull capitulates.There is going to be even more pain forward.There is no need to pick a bottom for Bitcoin, mostly because you can't. Its bottom will depend on macroeconomic fundamentals that have not yet played out, plus it has a very limited price action history. As backpacker already stated, just wait for the vicious cycle of rate hikes to bludgeon the stock markets, wait for the stock markets to bottom, and then buy Bitcoin on the price upswing. It is now correlated with stocks.
When people are so disgusted by the mere thought of buying stocks (or crypto), then that is the time to buy. We are not even close to such a market sentiment capitulation. People are still talking about "buying the dip" or "buying the bottom." There are still plenty of bull traps to navigate.