Make your vote, Bitcoin will hit 18K now?

[fortunespeculator]

There is no need to pick a bottom for Bitcoin, mostly because you can't. Its bottom will depend on macroeconomic fundamentals that have not yet played out, plus it has a very limited price action history. As backpacker already stated, just wait for the vicious cycle of rate hikes to bludgeon the stock markets, wait for the stock markets to bottom, and then buy Bitcoin on the price upswing. It is now correlated with stocks.

When people are so disgusted by the mere thought of buying stocks (or crypto), then that is the time to buy. We are not even close to such a market sentiment capitulation. People are still talking about "buying the dip" or "buying the bottom." There are still plenty of bull traps to navigate.

Yeah although me and Golden Fleeces approach probably differ a lot and there is lot of analysis here( and i dont like to dish out too much blah blah)-but this is bang on.Bear market isn't over yet -neither in stocks nor crypto - it aint over till the last Bull capitulates.There is going to be even more pain forward.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Yeah although me and Golden Fleeces approach probably differ a lot and there is lot of analysis here( and i dont like to dish out too much blah blah)-but this is bang on.Bear market isn't over yet -neither in stocks nor crypto - it aint over till the last Bull capitulates.There is going to be even more pain forward.

So all the current buyers are idiots?

 

[Golden Fleece]

So all the current buyers are idiots?

Not necessarily. FOMO and ignorance also explains it. And DCA is a viable strategy, not necessarily idiocy.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Not necessarily. FOMO and ignorance also explains it. And DCA is a viable strategy, not necessarily idiocy.

Anyway you are saying that you are smarter than the market. Interesting.

 

[Golden Fleece]

Anyway you are saying that you are smarter than the market. Interesting.

Smarter than the herd, perhaps. These types of interest rate hikes have not occurred in many decades, so the overall trend is obvious. The choices of the central banks are also obvious: continued rising inflation or a recession.

The capitalist market forces are quite clear. The main wildcard is government intervention. Does the Fed continue to fight inflation with further rate hikes and thereby ensure a recession or does it eventually ease rate hikes to save the stock markets and thereby ensure an eventual financial collapse?

People should be asking: when did it become the job of the Fed to ensure perpetually painless stock investing to the detriment of everyone who works and saves -- and to the detriment of social stability?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Smarter than the herd, perhaps. These types of interest rate hikes have not occurred in many decades, so the overall trend is obvious. The choices of the central banks are also obvious: continued rising inflation or a recession.

The capitalist market forces are quite clear. The main wildcard is government intervention. Does the Fed continue to fight inflation with further rate hikes and thereby ensure a recession or does it eventually ease rate hikes to save the stock markets and thereby ensure an eventual financial collapse?

People should be asking: when did it become the job of the Fed to ensure perpetually painless stock investing to the detriment of everyone who works and saves -- and to the detriment of social stability?

If everything was so obvious, prices would not be moving.

 

[Golden Fleece]

If everything was so obvious, prices would not be moving.

In fact, it is very obvious to the smart money crowd, which is exactly why prices are moving -- down. It is not obvious at all to the dumb money crowd, which is why I earlier spoke of "a market sentiment capitulation." (Post #119).

The "smart money" on Wall Street has already capitulated, because the future is quite obvious to them as they study the markets for a living. And those who did not study that history (or ignored it) are already in big trouble, which is a discussion for another day.

This is record-breaking stuff. If you are blissfully unaware of it, them shame on you.

Hedge funds, otherwise known as the “smart money,” have been dumping stocks for the past seven days at the fastest pace on record, according to Goldman Sachs. Friday’s and Monday’s vicious selloff exploded to the highest levels Goldman has been tracking since April 2008.

Seventy-three percent of the investment managers surveyed expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since Goldman launched the survey in 1994.

The investment managers are long: cash, U.S. dollar, commodities, health care resources and high-quality and value stocks. They are short: U.S. Treasury bonds and Bitcoin; as well as equities of European, emerging-markets and China stocks; and technology and consumer goods and staples.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/hedge-funds-investment-managers-wall-street-sentiment-cash/2022/06/15/id/1074505/?ns_mail_uid=b113dfd3-2613-40b4-92ba-015bb5f027c4&ns_mail_job=DM344724_06152022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010102zz02n4

 

[JohnnyDoe]

In fact, it is very obvious to the smart money crowd, which is exactly why prices are moving -- down. It is not obvious at all to the dumb money crowd, which is why I earlier spoke of "a market sentiment capitulation." (Post #119).

The "smart money" on Wall Street has already capitulated, because the future is quite obvious to them as they study the markets for a living. And those who did not study that history (or ignored it) are already in big trouble, which is a discussion for another day.

This is record-breaking stuff. If you are blissfully unaware of it, them shame on you.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/hedge-funds-investment-managers-wall-street-sentiment-cash/2022/06/15/id/1074505/?ns_mail_uid=b113dfd3-2613-40b4-92ba-015bb5f027c4&ns_mail_job=DM344724_06152022&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010102zz02n4

This is the kind of posts that appears when the market is bottoming

 

[Golden Fleece]

This is the kind of posts that appears when the market is bottoming

Well, I guess only one of us will be correct. So, bookmark this post for your future reference.

Like I said earlier, the dumb money is still talking about "buying the dip" or "buying the bottom" (that includes you), while the "smart money" guys continue to flee for their lives.

This is not a normal correction. These continuing rate hikes are a deadly serious macroeconomic event.

 

[fortunespeculator]

So all the current buyers are idiots?

I didnt say anyone is an idiot Johnny.I am saying bear market to bull market transition is not so fast.However i again dont have a crystal ball ,but if this current upmove turns into a bull market in crypto then it would seem that precedents have failed me.This should be an upmove where prices are being pushed up so that the last of the crypto moves from strong hands to weak hands.I had said that there will be a brief stop at 18 k levels and a rally.Then it should fall.

Not necessarily. FOMO and ignorance also explains it. And DCA is a viable strategy, not necessarily idiocy.

DCA is not a viable strategy even if you can print money like the FED.This time though the FED wont be saved even though they have the ability to print money.With money printing you can stave of the dooms day for a long time.But it will come eventually.Like it has been staved off from 2008 with continuous rounds of QE. No single entity can influence the markets general direction of a bull or bear market- neither that entity maybe solvent before market changes direction.So DCA is harakiri and throwing good money after bad.Its a Martingale strategy you can check out the disasters that Martingale strategy produces in the casinos.

 

[backpacker]

This is the kind of posts that appears when the market is bottoming

No, when the market bottoms you will not see anybody posting about the market. Simply because people will have lost interest (and their money).

Most people have never experienced a prolonged market downturn. Do not confuse 2020 or 2007/2008 or even the dot-com-bubble with the current situation. The former events were solely driven by an investment hype (dot-com and 2007/2008) or an outside event which caused panic (2020). They cannot be compared to today's vicious cycle of ever rising interest rates.
You have to go back all the way to the 1970's and Paul Volcker to understand what is looming.

If you feel a need to participate in this market, play it safe: Invest in stocks of traditional industries (the so-called "boring" companies) that have a track record of paying above-average dividends. At least they guarantee that you can live through these difficult times by cashing in on dividends.
Other than that, a simple savings account or a short-term CD in US-Dollar (forget about all other currencies, it all depends on USD) might be your best bet until there is a real opportunity.
However, an investment that exclusively relies on capital gains (and on more and more people investing in it -> crypto) is for sure not one of these opportunities.

 

[fortunespeculator]

No, when the market bottoms you will not see anybody posting about the market. Simply because people will have lost interest (and their money).

Most people have never experienced a prolonged market downturn. Do not confuse 2020 or 2007/2008 or even the dot-com-bubble with the current situation. The former events were solely driven by an investment hype (dot-com and 2007/2008) or an outside event which caused panic (2020). They cannot be compared to today's vicious cycle of ever rising interest rates.
You have to go back all the way to the 1970's and Paul Volcker to understand what is looming.

If you feel a need to participate in this market, play it safe: Invest in stocks of traditional industries (the so-called "boring" companies) that have a track record of paying above-average dividends. At least they guarantee that you can live through these difficult times by cashing in on dividends.
Other than that, a simple savings account or a short-term CD in US-Dollar (forget about all other currencies, it all depends on USD) might be your best bet until there is a real opportunity.
However, an investment that exclusively relies on capital gains (and on more and more people investing in it -> crypto) is for sure not one of these opportunities.

Ya cash is king in these times.There will be lots of mouth watering deals coming up soon in different markets as many would be forced to sell different assets due to their exposure in risk assets.

 

[backpacker]

Ya cash is king in these times.There will be lots of mouth watering deals coming up soon in different markets as many would be forced to sell different assets due to their exposure in risk assets.

True, and be patient. It will take some time, not so soon.

• First be sure that inflation has reached a top.
• Second be sure that the FED turned around and stopped interest rate hikes. All in all that will take at least a year.
• Third, after points 1. & 2. are solved, make sure that you do not find yourself in a recession. Chances for that are quite high.

Currently and for the foreseeable a future it can be interesting to invest in ultra-short-term Treasuries (anything between 3 and 6 months term) and roll them over. They pay more than a CD or a fixed term deposit, you do not have any solvency risk like with a bank and with ultra short term you eliminate the interest risk.
However, you have to calculate on brokerage fees to prevent eating up too much yield.

Check out 6 month US treasury last price's stock price (US6M) in real time

Get U.S. 6 Month Treasury (US6M:Tradeweb) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

 

[bountymounty]

I don't know, my personal hope it will bounce back to 18K so I can buy. But most often what I whish and what happens is the paradox of the opposite.

 

[clemens]

• First be sure that inflation has reached a top.
• Second be sure that the FED turned around and stopped interest rate hikes. All in all that will take at least a year.
• Third, after points 1. & 2. are solved, make sure that you do not find yourself in a recession. Chances for that are quite high.

The best advise I have read for a very long time... I have made a hard copy of these lines and put it up my wall.