Only reason to hold eth these days except transacting in is staking it - yield (consider it your bond side of your portfolio - bond yield and bond price rises)I'm holding ETHER from when I paid only 100$ each - that's a good business for me.
But I would have preferred to have BTC in the amounts I have rather than ETH - though you should never be dissatisfied when something works out. There’s always something better out there.
could it possibly happen? it came as something unnatural and it can vanish as fast again, or it can be made worthless like Diamonds are now.Please explain the risk of one Bitcoin becoming zero Bitcoin.
One btc always = one btccould it possibly happen? it came as something unnatural and it can vanish as fast again, or it can be made worthless like Diamonds are now.
are you serious now ?LOL, and again LOL. Are you for real? 60K after halving isn't risky, it's a gift right now, if your time horizon is 2-12 months.
Never been more serious.are you serious now ?
Since I see from some posts your opinion is respected, here's a question for you: 1) given Bitcoin being perceived as risk-on asset and its being very neatly correlated to SPX, would you not say that in case of a crisis whereby SPX crashes, so will bitcon; 2) bitcoin's prior cycle only reached 69k whereby the s2f model predicted it to go much higher, it also went below the previous cycle's peak of 19k at prior bottom (even if you consider s2f a meme, aren't bitcoin cycles also memes that were memed into existence); long story short, if the rainbow chart with bitcoin cycles breaks down, how do you see bitcoin surviving? 3) bitcoin's fees are pretty low and for many miners not profitable on their own, the more it goes into ETFs that are traded offchain the less btc moves offchain, soon fees for economic security of bitcoin won't make sense; -- so basically if we have a major financial crisis incoming that can wipe out banks and likely drag bitcoin down with it (unless by some unclear miracle it decouples from SPX and starts behaving like gold) what's your thesis for holding bitcoin over the imminent mega-crash that may be coming? I don't even take more extreme scenarios of war, internet shutdown or launch of quantum computer that can break sha256 isntantly hacking all bitcoin wallets and killing the basic narrative of bitcoin's network as the most secure in the world.....One btc always = one btc
Perhaps you mean btc exchange rate against USD going to zero?
Can this happen?
Possibly, yes. Probably, no.
Whereas it’s a mathematical fact that the value of any fiat currency tends to, and eventually reaches, zero.
By whom?1) given Bitcoin being perceived as risk-on asset
0.41 (average over the past 5 years) is not a “very neat” correlationand its being very neatly correlated to SPX,
I don’t have a crystal ball, and anyway it’s completely irrelevant what btc will do during a stock market crisis.would you not say that in case of a crisis whereby SPX crashes, so will bitcon;
I don’t do horoscopes. But I will be happy to buy all your bitcoins at $10k now or at any time in the future.2) bitcoin's prior cycle only reached 69k whereby the s2f model predicted it to go much higher, it also went below the previous cycle's peak of 19k at prior bottom (even if you consider s2f a meme, aren't bitcoin cycles also memes that were memed into existence); long story short, if the rainbow chart with bitcoin cycles breaks down, how do you see bitcoin surviving?
I will leave it to @wellington to show reply with some of his great charts.if we have a major financial crisis incoming that can wipe out banks and likely drag bitcoin down with it (unless by some unclear miracle it decouples from SPX and starts behaving like gold) what's your thesis for holding bitcoin over the imminent mega-crash that may be coming?
I share your concerns, with blackrock and banks holding a big amount of bitcoin, they are able to orchestrate drops at will, especially when playing the ETF vs. on-chain-BTC like they already did with Greyscale's product. With more etfs, futures and options, the doors are open for that greedy banksters. I think that this cycle should still work out ok, and I still hold on-chain-btc and sell puts on it (right now).Since I see from some posts your opinion is respected, here's a question for you: 1) given Bitcoin being perceived as risk-on asset and its being very neatly correlated to SPX, would you not say that in case of a crisis whereby SPX crashes, so will bitcon; 2) bitcoin's prior cycle only reached 69k whereby the s2f model predicted it to go much higher, it also went below the previous cycle's peak of 19k at prior bottom (even if you consider s2f a meme, aren't bitcoin cycles also memes that were memed into existence); long story short, if the rainbow chart with bitcoin cycles breaks down, how do you see bitcoin surviving? 3) bitcoin's fees are pretty low and for many miners not profitable on their own, the more it goes into ETFs that are traded offchain the less btc moves offchain, soon fees for economic security of bitcoin won't make sense; -- so basically if we have a major financial crisis incoming that can wipe out banks and likely drag bitcoin down with it (unless by some unclear miracle it decouples from SPX and starts behaving like gold) what's your thesis for holding bitcoin over the imminent mega-crash that may be coming? I don't even take more extreme scenarios of war, internet shutdown or launch of quantum computer that can break sha256 isntantly hacking all bitcoin wallets and killing the basic narrative of bitcoin's network as the most secure in the world.....
Read from someone who already addressed the matter in a scientific way, instead of relying on urban legends: https://ar5iv.org/pdf/1711.04235Regarding the quantum computer breaking encryption,
On SHA-256:your bitcoin holdings would be your smallest problem, as this would mean that suddenly all passwords and codes for EVERYTHING become obsolete, from your online banking with traditional banks, all credit cards and digital payments, even that upcoming CDBCs, stockmarkets, to your health insurance, your countries military agenda and secrets, secret services and police databases, and everything else that's digital and accessible via the net. That's gonna be an apocalyptic event with huge consequences.
All this will become ineffective against robots.It would be a good idea to get into some physical valuables before it happens, or even better: lots of guns and ammo, and a really really safe bunker with enough food supply for shortages (even better if you can 'create/grow' it).
The guy was a great software developer. The fact that he has had success in one business doesn’t mean that he is a universal genius.Hmmm, why does Bill Gates with his farmland purchases come into my mind right now, does he know more than we know about the current quantum development?
count me in for that deal, all gameI don’t do horoscopes. But I will be happy to buy all your bitcoins at $10k now or at any time in the future.
Great resources! Thank you very much for sharing!Read from someone who already addressed the matter in a scientific way, instead of relying on urban legends: https://ar5iv.org/pdf/1711.04235
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2402.00922
On SHA-256:
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2202.10982’
https://ar5iv.org/html/2409.19932v1
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/9/1337
In summary, for the lazy ones who don’t want to read the papers: quantum computing is not going to affect btc or other hashing based applications for decades. In any case, there is already a plethora of solutions that can be implemented to these applications to make them quantum-resistant.
All this will become ineffective against robots.
The guy was a great software developer. The fact that he has had success in one business doesn’t mean that he is a universal genius.
It is a typical example of the appeal to authority fallacy.
You mean you always hold 1 BTC as a minimum for investment purpose?One btc always = one btc
Perhaps you mean btc exchange rate against USD going to zero?
Can this happen?
Possibly, yes. Probably, no.
Whereas it’s a mathematical fact that the value of any fiat currency tends to, and eventually reaches, zero.
what a post much to read, thanks.Read from someone who already addressed the matter in a scientific way, instead of relying on urban legends: https://ar5iv.org/pdf/1711.04235
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2402.00922
On SHA-256:
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2202.10982’
https://ar5iv.org/html/2409.19932v1
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/9/1337
In summary, for the lazy ones who don’t want to read the papers: quantum computing is not going to affect btc or other hashing based applications for decades. In any case, there is already a plethora of solutions that can be implemented to these applications to make them quantum-resistant.
All this will become ineffective against robots.
The guy was a great software developer. The fact that he has had success in one business doesn’t mean that he is a universal genius.
It is a typical example of the appeal to authority fallacy.
No, I mean that the value of 1 btc will always be 1 btc. I hold in btc the greatest part of my liquid assets, and I don’t care about what others believe its value in USD or other fiat currency is.You mean you always hold 1 BTC as a minimum for investment purpose?
For the ecosystem the price going down is not a big risk, funny but very high price and lots of hodlers but no users is the worst scenario for bitcoin.There is still a ultra high risk to loose your investment in Bitcoins because of the price to be that high now.
Most of the hashing and mining part are safe from quantum computers.launch of quantum computer that can break sha256 isntantly hacking all bitcoin wallets and killing the basic narrative of bitcoin's network as the most secure in the world.....
Not necessarily, sure if someone intercept your internet traffic they will break your TLS easily with quantum computers, but it's just an individual problem, any large gov agency probably can do those MITM attacks currently to any individual, most of the servers will still be safe enough as they still be able to restrict IPs etc.Regarding the quantum computer breaking encryption, your bitcoin holdings would be your smallest problem, as this would mean that suddenly all passwords and codes for EVERYTHING become obsolete, from your online banking with traditional banks, all credit cards and digital payments, even that upcoming CDBCs, stockmarkets, to your health insurance, your countries military agenda and secrets, secret services and police databases, and everything else that's digital and accessible via the net. That's gonna be an apocalyptic event with huge consequences.
how many of these coins you bought for 100$ ?I'm holding ETHER from when I paid only 100$ each - that's a good business for me.
But I would have preferred to have BTC in the amounts I have rather than ETH - though you should never be dissatisfied when something works out. There’s always something better out there.