Say the Financial World will crash, where to put your assets?

[happyjohn]

I know many of you will not believe that we are in early stage of a total collaps of the worlds economy, endless experts have already spoke about it.

What I'm wondering, beside Bitcoins, Gold, Wisky, Diamonds, Art and Land what would you do to protect your asserts in the future if such an collaps will come?

Are you ignoring such possible threat totally , you may vote in the poll below and comment please?

 

[neweraoffshore]

The next crash will be devastating. Especially for the EU. They are flooding the market with money, they don't have interest rates to "lower" anymore, the housing market is a crazy big bubble and most companies are zombie companies kept alive by the cheap money....

For this I would also consider to get a wide diversification of currencies, because after the Euro crashed they have to make a new currency and then you can buy back the new currency with your other currencies.
Because I don't think that selling gold will be that easy in these times. If you know a little about history, a gold ban is an option, so it may be illegal to have gold. They are already lowering the amounts in which you are allowed to buy gold anonymously so they can track the gold holders later after the ban.
Land within Europe is also not the perfect way, because if they ban gold and form a new currency I guess they will again place a forced mortgage on every real estate to back the new currency.
In the end I plan it this way:
-Enough physical gold which I can hide (not in a bank)
-Enough different currencies (and crypto currencies) to buy back my land when the EU made a new currency and put forced mortgages on them

For me, gold, (already bought) land and diversified currencies are the way I want to go, because all other assets are hard to sell. Ever tried to resell physical diamonds or art?

And the next thing... I don't know if they will recover in the near future if they really crash, maybe they never will.
Why? Just look at what Europe has to offer, which is getting obsolete by technology. Let's start with the big and important car industry. Within short time it will be possible for every billionaire to setup an e-car manufacturer with a few billion. They don't need complex motors, clutches, gearshifts etc. . They need a chassis, e-motor a battery and that's it. All can be built by robots. Then look at all the jobs AI will take. Even high educated jobs like doctors and lawyers. I was part of a team to code a cross-reading AI for M&A contracts so it can look up which paragraphs are missing to achieve their desired outcome. Years ago they were 20 lawyers with 500€/hour sitting on this for 6 month, now it's just the AI with 5 lawyers for 2 month. Just imagine this?! Talking about high educated jobs, then look at our medics, AI can trace cancer and other sicknesses better then every human eye on x-rays and CT, robots like the Davinci robot only require 1-2 surgeons for 2 hours of complex brain or heart surgeries where they normaly had 4-6 surgeons for more then 6 hours.
These were just a few examples because I don't want to write a 1000 pages essay, hahah. But I guess you get the topic I want to point out.
Who will pay and work for the "new rise" of Europe? The advantages which made Europe successful are not needed anymore. (Even worse then this, they cut their advantages by law, hahha, just look at GDPR, making personalized AI impossible for the EU, or look at the diesel bans in cities)
Right now the people are just employed because of contracts and unions. But if Europe needs a total restart, the companies won't build up the old slow expensive structures again. They will start fresh using latest technology. (But still, who will pay if they have no jobs?! While on the other side being forced by economic principles to use technologies without human labor. Hahaha, what a dilemma )

We are at the end of Rome...
However it's hard to tell how long it will take until the system collapses, because the central banks can print as much money as they want. Maybe they can keep up this system for the next decade.
Personally I think we will crash within 5 years.

 

[iloveyouguys]

Have you looked at the market performance of last 100 years?

 

[happyjohn]

Any reason for why you put the text in BLACK @iloveyouguys ?

However it's hard to tell how long it will take until the system collapses, because the central banks can print as much money as they want. Maybe they can keep up this system for the next decade.

That's also what I realize they are doing. I give it max 3 years starting January 01, 2020

 

[iloveyouguys]

Any reason for why you put the text in BLACK @iloveyouguys ?


That's also what I realize they are doing. I give it max 3 years starting January 01, 2020

I don't know why that happens. I'm not doing it on purpose.

You guys have a very narrow perspective IMHO. As long as there are people who can be exploited, which is basically the bottom 90%, nothing will really collapse.

I think more likely scenario is that there would be a new war, or another way of redistributing the lands/assets from the weak to the strong. I'm not sure if that's profitable enough for the people at the top. Probably not.

 

[Martin Everson]

what would you do to protect your asserts in the future if such an collaps will come?

If the "Financial World" would collapse I would take an extended vacation in a developing country for a decade. Go to a country where daily hardship is a known quantity and digital means of transacting is not required. You don't want to be in a western country that has never witnessed modern hardship or is totally digital like Sweden.

I don't think we will see a global financial collapse until physical cash is eliminated. Governments will do whatever is needed to keep the system working as we have seen in EU with -0.5% interest rates and in Japan where the central bank owns over 70% of the entire Japanese ETF market....lol .

A bail-in of the system in order to come out of any collapse cannot be successful until they eliminate all physical cash and enact deep negative interest rates i.e -3% at least.

Anyway fingers cross this does not happen before I arrive at my bolt hole hideaway fully paid for and off grid .

 

[void]

it's inevitable - in this context the sooner the better (great opportunity for those who are ready or more ready then those who aren't and the more peaceful it can be)
the later the worse consequences and threats in terms of irreversible damage and risks of physical violence or war

 

[JohnLocke]

Something will happen, however, if it will be a total "collaps" of the worlds economy, I doubt.

 

[BTCNG]

The next crash will be devastating. Especially for the EU. They are flooding the market with money, they don't have interest rates to "lower" anymore, the housing market is a crazy big bubble and most companies are zombie companies kept alive by the cheap money....

For this I would also consider to get a wide diversification of currencies, because after the Euro crashed they have to make a new currency and then you can buy back the new currency with your other currencies.
Because I don't think that selling gold will be that easy in these times. If you know a little about history, a gold ban is an option, so it may be illegal to have gold. They are already lowering the amounts in which you are allowed to buy gold anonymously so they can track the gold holders later after the ban.
Land within Europe is also not the perfect way, because if they ban gold and form a new currency I guess they will again place a forced mortgage on every real estate to back the new currency.
In the end I plan it this way:
-Enough physical gold which I can hide (not in a bank)
-Enough different currencies (and crypto currencies) to buy back my land when the EU made a new currency and put forced mortgages on them

For me, gold, (already bought) land and diversified currencies are the way I want to go, because all other assets are hard to sell. Ever tried to resell physical diamonds or art?

And the next thing... I don't know if they will recover in the near future if they really crash, maybe they never will.
Why? Just look at what Europe has to offer, which is getting obsolete by technology. Let's start with the big and important car industry. Within short time it will be possible for every billionaire to setup an e-car manufacturer with a few billion. They don't need complex motors, clutches, gearshifts etc. . They need a chassis, e-motor a battery and that's it. All can be built by robots. Then look at all the jobs AI will take. Even high educated jobs like doctors and lawyers. I was part of a team to code a cross-reading AI for M&A contracts so it can look up which paragraphs are missing to achieve their desired outcome. Years ago they were 20 lawyers with 500€/hour sitting on this for 6 month, now it's just the AI with 5 lawyers for 2 month. Just imagine this?! Talking about high educated jobs, then look at our medics, AI can trace cancer and other sicknesses better then every human eye on x-rays and CT, robots like the Davinci robot only require 1-2 surgeons for 2 hours of complex brain or heart surgeries where they normaly had 4-6 surgeons for more then 6 hours.
These were just a few examples because I don't want to write a 1000 pages essay, hahah. But I guess you get the topic I want to point out.
Who will pay and work for the "new rise" of Europe? The advantages which made Europe successful are not needed anymore. (Even worse then this, they cut their advantages by law, hahha, just look at GDPR, making personalized AI impossible for the EU, or look at the diesel bans in cities)
Right now the people are just employed because of contracts and unions. But if Europe needs a total restart, the companies won't build up the old slow expensive structures again. They will start fresh using latest technology. (But still, who will pay if they have no jobs?! While on the other side being forced by economic principles to use technologies without human labor. Hahaha, what a dilemma )

We are at the end of Rome...
However it's hard to tell how long it will take until the system collapses, because the central banks can print as much money as they want. Maybe they can keep up this system for the next decade.
Personally I think we will crash within 5 years.

Can you let us know which currencies you had in mind? Bear in mind that the USA have a debt they will never pay as well. Which currencies of which countries will you buy (do they also have a positive interest in government debts?)

And about if you will hold physical gold - do you really think you will be able to sell it to someone? What will be your exit strategy in this case?

 

[LegitBananas]

Something will happen, however, if it will be a total "collaps" of the worlds economy, I doubt.

I agree. We will probably see something similar to what happened in 2008 - maybe worse, maybe better.

Some people are talking like everything will totally collapse and money will be worthless and we will be dying in the streets and starving. Trust me if that happens, nobody cares about your gold, art, or crypto currency

If we are to believe a sort of "market correction" will happen again sometime soon, is it not smart to have cash on hand, so we can buy up all the undervalued assets?

 

[JohnLocke]

I think the current thread relates somehow to this one https://www.offshorecorptalk.com/th...an-book-der-grösste-crash-aller-zeiten.27766/ which I have read, interisting theory.

 

[Martin Everson]

A systemic collapse i.e where the entire norms of the global financial system stops functioning and money itself becomes worthless is very unlikely. An economic crisis though is inevitable which could be triggered by anything from a collapse in the pound following a no-brexit deal till a bubble bursting in the real estate market in Canada or Australia and a knock on effect of the soverign debt of those countries used as collateral by other countries and banks and the chain continues. The problem with financial crisis's is that even if you see it coming no one can precisely predict or model the exact impact globally. This makes it very hard to know where and in what to put your assets. Hence I would simply get out of the way and move from developed places.

 

[neweraoffshore]

Can you let us know which currencies you had in mind? Bear in mind that the USA have a debt they will never pay as well. Which currencies of which countries will you buy (do they also have a positive interest in government debts?)

And about if you will hold physical gold - do you really think you will be able to sell it to someone? What will be your exit strategy in this case?

There is no special currency I have in mind. I just try to spread in every currency as good as possible. This is more a "believe" thing.
Most is in CHF, USD, PLN, GBP, YEN, RMB, AED whatever.... . Best example for the believe thing is the GBP. Some say it will crash because of the Brexit, some think it will raise because of the Brexit. Hard to tell. I guess the brits have a lot of smoking guns. If the EU won't do favorable bilateral treaties they will just become an even bigger tax haven collecting all the money from the EU companies. This is quite a realistic scenario. Anyway, if it falls, some other currencies will cover the loss. I primarily don't care about currency profits or losses, I care about a diversified structure, to be able to act in case of a massive Euro crash. It's just a game of possibilities, maybe the crash will come in 5 years, 10 year or never, don't know, but I want to be set in case of the event.

Of course there is no perfect way and opinions differ from individual to individual a lot. And sometimes unforeseen circumstances happens which make all calculation and planning obsolete. So all I do is to diversify as good as possible.

Personal opinion:
Crashes are normal and needed. But In my opinion the next crash will be very very bad. All depends what the politicians will decide. Will they ban gold? Will they implement a new gold standard? Will they put forced mortgages on real estates to back a new currency? I don't know.

However the thing I fear most is that we reached a level of technology which made humans literally obsolete. Ok, I will do some more examples. Most people argue with sentences like "but there will be new jobs". But as an IT guy with a little bit of expertise I can say that there won't be as much new jobs as they think there will be. How the hell will they teach truck/taxi drivers and low qualified staff to work in the "new jobs"? The new jobs will require quite a high skill. And even they start to become obsolete already. Best example. 10 years ago I was programming line by line and it took ages to write some nice code. Today the tools became so good and fast, that you can literally just take a few libraries from github which can do almost everything genericaly and I can do a program which would have taken me 7 days to code 10 years ago within one hour. There are even compilers which completely work by drag and drop which will one day even make coders obsolete because when they start to work correctly one "coder" can do what 5 did (compared to today). Best example is web development. 10 years ago you had 5 guys working on a website building it from scratch because CMS were so bad and you couldn't manage them without HTML, CSS, PHP knowledge. Today??? Get wordpress, visual composer, elementor or divi and built a website via drag and drop as a one-man-show. Even worse then this, the client will later be able to change content on his own, so less orders afterwards.
If you take this into account and have a look on rising expectation of life and growing population. How will all these people have a job one day? In my opinion the system right now can only work if human labor is needed.

I think a lot of people don't think IT and AI until the end. They see the short term benefit in first line. To make this a little more understandable, look at the following example. Self driving cars. Most people just think about the taxi/truck drivers. But it goes soooo much deeper. Self driving cars mean no accidents (one day), means no aftermarket for spareparts, no garages with repair services. They drive more "fluent" in perfect vibration harmony so the tires don't get used off so quickly, the roads won't get damaged so quickly because of less rubber on the street and cars will have the perfect space inbetween so the road is not as much used. When self driving cars are reality they won't just drive in one line after another, they will be able to drive diversified to save the roads. Means less damaged roads, less maintenance. Self driving cars also means that there will be a "car cycle" so not everybody needs a car anymore because there will always be a car available near by. This will reduce the overall car demand. This will bring up subscription based car sharing which will make the manufacturers produce high quality cars which don't break quickly because the car becomes the asset of them and not of the client, therefore cars will have a much longer lifecycle which will again lower the overall supply. As becoming an e-car manufacturer will be easy for billionaires as the factory will produce them almost automatically the oligopoly will shift to a polypole resulting in crazy low prices for the subscriptions.

This was just a short example of self driving cards. Now think about other industries, like delivering industry via amazon drones, shops without staff, customer service chatbots, personal assistance via AI (go on youtube and search for "google assitant making phone call" ). This is not science fiction anymore. This all will hit our personal lives very very soon and in some parts it already did. I have no idea in which jobs normal qualified people will work one day, sorry. Maybe just being slaves for the (offshore) elite, hahah.

IT and AI is the box of Pandora. And I tell you this as someone who has been working in IT all his life.

@Admin thanks for the book recommendation. Will read.


//Edit: Thing I desperately want to add: The most people don't have the IT expertise to imagine what is coming. All the politicians and people you see on TV or in newspapers are certified morons.

 

[iloveyouguys]

@neweraoffshore Sounds like you don't actually have any expertise related to machine learning or AI and you're not from a western country where these areas are properly studied.

 

[John Andrews]

Hence I would simply get out of the way and move from developed places.

Which country would you move to? Albania? Bosnia? Or maybe somewhere in Africa?

 

[Gediminas]

All depends what the politicians will decide. Will they ban gold?

The question seems to be unrealistic, my friend.

 

[John Andrews]

The question seems to be unrealistic, my friend.

google Executive Order 6102.

 

[Gediminas]

google Executive Order 6102.

Yeah, but impossible on a global scale. Don't you think so?

 

[John Andrews]

Well no one in Yugoslavia thought a war was going to happen yet it happened.

My answer is that I don't know. The fact is that EU is already imposing KYC checks on gold purchases

 

[neweraoffshore]

Yeah, but impossible on a global scale. Don't you think so?

But realistic for example for Europe. What to do if the Euro collapses?
Gold bans: Germany 1923, 1936, 1945; France 1936, Great Britain 1966, India 1963, USA 1933 (EO6102 as @mange38 mentioned) and 1961 (EO10905/EO11037) . If you look into the individual gold bans you will also see that they lasted for years.
Doesn't need to be a global gold ban. Maybe there will be one, can't tell. But we also have to take into account that we never had global crisis on this scale before. Maybe we will see new measurements. Just want to remind everybody to go back to 2008 (and the following years resulting out of it) and ask themselves how often they said to themselves "nooooo, that will never happen, impossible" and it actually did happen. Lehman, Cyprus 60% bank account loss, Washington Mutual, AIG, Commerzbank to just name a few... and a lot of system relevant companies/banks still struggle until today.
This time the central banks lowered interested rates and therefore flooded the market with money + individual stimulus packages by the countries themselves. What to do next? Which measurements do they/we have left? The "Better than Cash Alliance" better hurry up, hahah

@Gediminas The shown screen of the gold reserves is for countries. They will still be allowed to have gold of course, how should they back a new currency without? Gold bans aim on individuals, so the government gets all gold.