Total return by asset for last 200 years

[wellington]

So you now (above can forecast the ISM forward) 15 months, therefore you can forecast the markets forward.

 

[jafo]

and liquidate only what you need to spend for consumption/pleasure/needs

...or just pay using BTC. It's been a few months now that I swap the BTC I need for USDT and paid with USDT directly, just as I would pay with a credit card, Google Pay, or Apple Pay.

 

[void]

Any strategy to mitigate sequence of returns risk, and avoid selling during bear market?

I'm far from feeling eligible for giving advises to others as my background and risk tolerance is very different from an average person
1) what I described is more theoretical than practical aproach as those having significant BTC holdings often have significant fiat income covering their spending
2) in the rest of the cases I believe borrowing against BTC is the right way - yes, I'm aware that options are very limited/expensive nowadays but it will evolve no doubt
3) I would be careful about bull/bear market narrative - not denying it, the protocol itself induces cycles clearly, but I think this will slowly fade out with unstoppable capital inflow and literally zero comparable alternatives to preserve wealth - in general timing the markets is silly unless you have some kind of edge (and this is the most competitive market in the history of humankind, so much for getting the edge)

anyways your questions is reasonable and I'm interested in hearing other opinions on this

 

[10101]

Any strategy to mitigate sequence of returns risk, and avoid selling during bear market?

short futures 1:1

 

[JohnLocke]

2) in the rest of the cases I believe borrowing against BTC is the right way - yes, I'm aware that options are very limited/expensive nowadays but it will evolve no doubt

where or how would you do that ?

 

[void]

short futures 1:1

please elaborate - where, how, costs...?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

short futures 1:1

It’s called hedging. 1:1 means being flat the market, which is the same as selling the whole portfolio, but without the transaction and spread costs.

 

[10101]

It’s called hedging. 1:1 means being flat the market, which is the same as selling the whole portfolio, but without the transaction and spread costs.

Same as selling the whole portfolio, except that you still own the crypto or stocks that you hedge. Also if you hold quality stocks and short e.g. S&P500, you probably gain during the hedge.

 

[void]

Same as selling the whole portfolio, except that you still own the crypto or stocks that you hedge. Also if you hold quality stocks and short e.g. S&P500, you probably gain during the hedge.

sure but where are you doing this with BTC and what is the cost?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Same as selling the whole portfolio, except that you still own the crypto or stocks that you hedge.

What’s the problem with buying again the whole portfolio instead of closing the derivatives position?

Also if you hold quality stocks and short e.g. S&P500, you probably gain during the hedge.

Then it would not be a 1:1 hedge

 

[burden]

What should we be able to learn from this long discussion? Could someone perhaps briefly summarize this?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

What should we be able to learn from this long discussion? Could someone perhaps briefly summarize this?

HODL

 

[wellington]

HODL

And move

 

[Don]

And move

What services do you use for these nice graphs?

Invaluable contributions by the way thanks!

 

[wellington]

What services do you use for these nice graphs?

Invaluable contributions by the way thanks!

All internally generated (dynamic) updates as data feeds in/derived/deduced.

But at the basis, Plotly can work with php/python (some generated using php +js others python +js)

 

[Don]

All internally generated (dynamic) updates as data feeds in/derived/deduced.

But at the basis, Plotly can work with php/python (some generated using php +js others python +js)

Thanks!
Got to have these things running on a separate screen in the office.
Then next thing is automate alerts and trades.

 

[wellington]

Thanks!
Got to have these things running on a separate screen in the office.
Then next thing is automate alerts and trades.

Yeah that's why i created them, basically you have to f**k around with Bloomberg Terminal/OpenBB /Tradingview etc to generate the charts and you can only have so many open at once and it resets and you actually just need this in the bg routinely updating twice a day or once a day / week etc

So we did something like 200 different areas we look at to get our leading indications constantly updating.

Will do a UX for them next so can have all on one screen and popup in sequential order (larger) randomly.

Otherwise you can't see the woods for the trees, so bring the woods to the forefront

 

[Radko]

View attachment 6805

Over the long term, research shows that REITs have outperformed stocks.
Since 1994, three REIT subgroups stood out for their ability to beat the S&P 500
Self-storage REITs have delivered a 17.3% average annual total return since 1994. That has obliterated the S&P 500's 10.1% average annual total return during that period.
Self-storage REITs have routinely delivered strong returns compared to other REITs.

Industrial REITs have delivered the second-best performance in the sector since 1994, with an average annual total return of 14.4%.

Residential REITs have delivered the third-highest performance among REIT subgroups since 1994 at 12.7% annually.

 

[uranium]

This is most important chart
This what I mean by lost decade
So buy and hold forever is the answer.

 

[wellington]

Over the long term, research shows that REITs have outperformed stocks.
Since 1994, three REIT subgroups stood out for their ability to beat the S&P 500
Self-storage REITs have delivered a 17.3% average annual total return since 1994. That has obliterated the S&P 500's 10.1% average annual total return during that period.
Self-storage REITs have routinely delivered strong returns compared to other REITs.

Industrial REITs have delivered the second-best performance in the sector since 1994, with an average annual total return of 14.4%.

Residential REITs have delivered the third-highest performance among REIT subgroups since 1994 at 12.7% annually.

So 17.3% minus 8% debasement, 2% Gov reported inflation (4%) = 5.3% - tax.... ?