Turkey sovereign bonds

[European]

Hi all,
Where can Turkish sovereign bonds be bought/traded? What brokers offer them?
Thanks

 

[aniglo22]

Why would you want to buy them besides citizenship . But you can purchase through hsbc .

 

[daniels27]

What is the anticipated roi in USD?

 

[European]

Well I'm looking into stg like the 6 month (to limit the fx exposure in time) that is currently yielding 45% circa.
Even if the TRY falls say 30% vs the USD in the next 6 months, a bad scenario, you would still be around break-even. If it remains stable, yield could be 45% or even more if appreciates vs USD (unlikely). Not exactly a fixed-income play
Then reevaluate if it makes sense to buy for another 6 months
Thoughts?

@aniglo22 No interest in citizenship. Major brokers like IB do not offer this, right?

 

[daniels27]

Well I'm looking into stg like the 6 month (to limit the fx exposure in time) that is currently yielding 45% circa.
Even if the TRY falls say 30% vs the USD in the next 6 months, a bad scenario, you would still be around break-even. If it remains stable, yield could be 45% or even more if appreciates vs USD (unlikely). Not exactly a fixed-income play
Then reevaluate if it makes sense to buy for another 6 months
Thoughts?

@aniglo22 No interest in citizenship. Major brokers like IB do not offer this, right?

6 months. Turkey is about to enter the war against Israel (with weapons from Israel). All a bit ridiculous.

 

[aniglo22]

Well I'm looking into stg like the 6 month (to limit the fx exposure in time) that is currently yielding 45% circa.
Even if the TRY falls say 30% vs the USD in the next 6 months, a bad scenario, you would still be around break-even. If it remains stable, yield could be 45% or even more if appreciates vs USD (unlikely). Not exactly a fixed-income play
Then reevaluate if it makes sense to buy for another 6 months
Thoughts?

@aniglo22 No interest in citizenship. Major brokers like IB do not offer this, right?

No they have only corporate bonds . You would need to find some international bank which has branches in turkey like ING . You would be buying T-bills not bonds . The yield is also annualized . The 6 months is the maturity time . It's definitely not unlikely . The official data for cpi from Turkstat is much much lower than by independent . 113% vs 71.6% . Sources: [1] TURKSTAT Corporate [2] ENAGRUP - Inflation Research Group

 

[LFGC]

It is shocking to see such a blatantly false statement being made. That is totally false! Not to mention, Turkey short of a few drones that are long decommissioned from the early 2000's uses no Israeli weapons. Turkey is one of the worlds largest exporter of indigenous weapons, especially drones a category they unequivocally lead in currently by some metrics even over the US and China.

As for Israel, Israel was reliant on Turkey for food imports, Turkey was #3 after US and Russia. Turkey's embargo on Israel caused food shortages, which are still on going. Lastly, Israel is reliant on Turkey for its energy imports with almost all of Israel's oil being routed thru the port of Mersin in Turkey.

As for Turkish government bonds, there are risks, but for what it is worth Turkey's new central banker has been consistent with policy that has brought inflation down and is forecasted to continue. Turkey's economy is resilient and growing, the BIST 100 index was the best performing in the world in 2021, however, the FX risk makes both unattractive investments compared to for example crypto and US equities, given the new found asset management products in crypto receiving inflows and regulatory approval and consistency of US indexes.

 

[daniels27]

It is shocking to see such a blatantly false statement being made. That is totally false! Not to mention, Turkey short of a few drones that are long decommissioned from the early 2000's uses no Israeli weapons.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ht-enter-israel-help-palestinians-2024-07-28/
"We must be very strong so that Israel can't do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them."

https://apnews.com/article/armenia-...apons-israel-6814437bcd744acc1c4df0409a74406c
"Israeli arms quietly helped Azerbaijan retake Nagorno-Karabakh, to the dismay of region’s Armenians"

So yes, Turkey used Israeli weapons to enter Karabach.

 

[LFGC]

You don't seem to have any understanding of basic geography and most obviously not geopolitics. I am not sure why you even responded. Turkey and Israel are former long standing allies, Turkey was the first country to recognize Israel that is prominently Muslim. Furthermore, Turkey is fighting with Israel, UAE, KSA and Iran for regional hegemony. Azerbaijan is not Turkey, but an ally of Turkey, Israel is an arms exporter and sold arms to Azerbaijan. Turkey did not enter Karabach, nor does Turkey use Israeli arms. Despite Turkey's political stance on Palestine, Turkey continues to quietly support Israel, container ships still arrive from Turkey as do aircraft that supply military goods to Israel. Turkey's stance is likely to support Israel in going to war with and defeating Iranian proxies to the benefit of Turkey in Syria.

 

[aniglo22]

It is shocking to see such a blatantly false statement being made. That is totally false! Not to mention, Turkey short of a few drones that are long decommissioned from the early 2000's uses no Israeli weapons. Turkey is one of the worlds largest exporter of indigenous weapons, especially drones a category they unequivocally lead in currently by some metrics even over the US and China.

As for Israel, Israel was reliant on Turkey for food imports, Turkey was #3 after US and Russia. Turkey's embargo on Israel caused food shortages, which are still on going. Lastly, Israel is reliant on Turkey for its energy imports with almost all of Israel's oil being routed thru the port of Mersin in Turkey.

As for Turkish government bonds, there are risks, but for what it is worth Turkey's new central banker has been consistent with policy that has brought inflation down and is forecasted to continue. Turkey's economy is resilient and growing, the BIST 100 index was the best performing in the world in 2021, however, the FX risk makes both unattractive investments compared to for example crypto and US equities, given the new found asset management products in crypto receiving inflows and regulatory approval and consistency of US indexes.

Of course the Index will be performing good , because of inflation and currency depreciation .You might also like Argentinian indexes. "There are risks " , you would be better of playing some blackjack at least you would have some fun .

 

[LFGC]

The index performed good due to actual growth and economic output. Man reasons were growth in exports, energy independence, and influx of tourism dollars post COVID, Turkey ranks as one of the most touristic countries in the world. The currency depreciation didn't skyrocket until December 2021. As mentioned, it is not a good investment, did you read my post?

 

[daniels27]

In the eyes of Erdogan, all Azeris are essentially Turkish people. That's why he wrote that "we" entered Karabach. Also he has many Israeli weapons that he bought in the name of Azerbaijan from Israel. Good for him, he can now attack his weapon supplier.

But back on the topic, if we invest USD, what roi do you anticipate? Can you get citizenship with that investment?

 

[LFGC]

That is incorrect, Turkey, not Erdogan, sees Azerbaijan along with some Balkans countries are their sphere of influence due to historic ties, Turkic languages, and potential for economic and military cooperation. Nothing specific to Turkey, standard geopolitics, still has absolutely nothing to do with the drivel about some sort of "Turkish-Israeli conflict using Israeli weapons".

There is no anticipation of ROI, requires forecasting, requires data, not an easy question to answer on a form. If you need to ask it is likely not a good investment, as mentioned, there are easier more hands off investments that are accessible and come with far less risk. As for citizenship, Turkish citizenship doesn't really possess much benefit in terms of visa free travel, why would it be desired?

 

[daniels27]

That is incorrect, Turkey, not Erdogan, sees Azerbaijan along with some Balkans countries are their sphere of influence due to historic ties, Turkic languages, and potential for economic and military cooperation. Nothing specific to Turkey, standard geopolitics, still has absolutely nothing to do with the drivel about some sort of "Turkish-Israeli conflict using Israeli weapons".

Yes, but the story with Azerbaijan is differnt. It is called 1 nation, 2 states:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/t...-not-just-a-phrase-parliament-speaker/2316897which also reflects Erdogan claiming that "we" entered Karabach (which was done with weapons from Isreal, some of them not yet used up). As a result, if they are to enther Israel, they will most likely also make use of Israeli weapons, which is a bit ironic. And that was what my post was about. Why would you invest in Turkey if they buy weapons from a country in summer 2023 and in fall they think about attacking the very same country? You are a friend today, but an enemy tomorrow.

There is no anticipation of ROI, requires forecasting, requires data, not an easy question to answer on a form. If you need to ask it is likely not a good investment, as mentioned, there are easier more hands off investments that are accessible and come with far less risk. As for citizenship, Turkish citizenship doesn't really possess much benefit in terms of visa free travel, why would it be desired?

I think it bring many advantages. You can go there anytime you want, become president, eat authentic Döner Kebap and maybe even go to Germany as worker. But most likely, it will allow me to troll much more here: I can proclaim to be a friend of Putin today, an enemy tomorrow. And if you ask me why I am writing such nonsense, I can explain it with my Turkish citizenship.

 

[LFGC]

The point you are trying so hard to make is simply non-existent. Turkey hasn't bought any weapons from Israel whatsoever, Azerbaijan has, Turkey and Azerbaijan are independent countries. The article you sent says nothing other than note continued cooperation and possibility of travel with only ID cards, something similar to US with Canada and Mexico.

As for "Why would you invest in Turkey if they buy weapons from a country in summer 2023". The US, Israel, and various other countries all do this routinely and are a literal cancer on the world due to the number of innocent civilians murdered, maimed, and displaced in illegal wars, state sponsored terror, and color revolutions and yet investment funds are still flowing in the aforementioned countries. There is no point to be made here, geopolitics is not black and white, intermingling political views with investing makes no sense...

Turkey will never attack Israel directly, Turkey is still a close economic partner of Israel, what you're seeing is typical geopolitical posturing for domestic and international audiences. There is no chance either country will ever face direct conflict with each other.