What are your sources when searching where to invest?

[jakonda]

For stocks, bonds, etf’s, mutual funds, and more… when looking for somewhere to put your money, what do you look for or how do you research when there are so many different tools. You have the Morningstar and Zacks ratings. You have the Altman-Z and Piotroski-F scores. You have P/E, P/B, EPS, and other ratios to choose from. You have various stock screener sites. You have analyst ratings. You have countless financial app algorithms. Where do you look? Just curious

 

[Don]

This is if you believe that it makes a worthwile difference to analyze stocks, which in reality is quite a limited view for making investment/trading decisions.

Quoting Mr. Nathan Rothschild:

"The few who understand the system, will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of the people mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests."

The rabbit hole goes way deeper than this.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Simply Wall St - Stock & Sector Analysis Made Simple is a good source of information

 

[Joct]

If you're more of a trader rather than an investor, have a look at the trend following philosophy. You can ignore all the noise and focus on the price. Armed with OHLC prices and an optimised spreadsheet you can ignore all the numbers and charts the finance community uses to make their jobs look more complicated, so people need to pay for their advice. Added benefit, you don't need to study news, financials or research reports.

Not good for ETFs and mutual funds and you need to use leverage so stock options and futures work better.

Turtle Trader is a good place to start and plenty of links out to other successful trend traders.

 

[thomasparra]

If you're more of a trader rather than an investor, have a look at the trend following philosophy. You can ignore all the noise and focus on the price. Armed with OHLC prices and an optimised spreadsheet you can ignore all the numbers and charts the finance community uses to make their jobs look more complicated, so people need to pay for their advice. Added benefit, you don't need to study news, financials or research reports.

Not good for ETFs and mutual funds and you need to use leverage so stock options and futures work better.

Turtle Trader is a good place to start and plenty of links out to other successful trend traders.

Lol, I hope you really do not believe what you just said here, for your own sake (and others').

Armed with OHLC prices and an optimised spreadsheet you can ignore all the numbers and charts the finance community uses to make their jobs look more complicated, so people need to pay for their advice. Added benefit, you don't need to study news, financials or research reports.

 

[Joct]

Lol, I hope you really do not believe what you just said here, for your own sake (and others').

It's worked for me for the last decade. Seems to work for a few more well known people than me. Yes, I have over-simplified and much better for people to learn and understand the other parts themselves. Which is why I included a link to a good initial source. Suffice to say the focus should be on price which is widely available to everyone.

 

[Martin Everson]

Where do you look? Just curious

Below

 

[thomasparra]

It's worked for me for the last decade. Seems to work for a few more well known people than me. Yes, I have over-simplified and much better for people to learn and understand the other parts themselves. Which is why I included a link to a good initial source. Suffice to say the focus should be on price which is widely available to everyone.

Everyone focuses on prices for specific stocks/financial products, except maybe macro traders.

So you are saying you are able to beat the market looking at candle charts, solely based on price which I will translate to "technical analysis". Any inefficiencies in the market will be very quickly offset by systematic trading firms including investment banks and funds who have quants with PhDs in AI and Applied Maths who spend their lives developing algorithms with machines with quantum like processing power coupled with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investable money. These machines can analyse, make a decision and trade in less than 1ms (this is why they are located near and at times in the same buildings as the financial exchanges themselves) and they thrive making less than 0.1% on a lot of trades simultaneously and they are running 24/7.

Please enlighten me on how you manage to do the same or where you identify the market inefficiencies that hundreds of banks and other financial institutions with dozens of thousands of people and virtually unlimited money cannot. I am very curious.

If you can't well I will just keep rather flipping a coin and bet on the winning side to yield the same if not a better result.

 

[Clank]

Everyone focuses on prices for specific stocks/financial products, except maybe macro traders.

So you are saying you are able to beat the market looking at candle charts, solely based on price which I will translate to "technical analysis". Any inefficiencies in the market will be very quickly offset by systematic trading firms including investment banks and funds who have quants with PhDs in AI and Applied Maths who spend their lives developing algorithms with machines with quantum like processing power coupled with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investable money. These machines can analyse, make a decision and trade in less than 1ms (this is why they are located near and at times in the same buildings as the financial exchanges themselves) and they thrive making less than 0.1% on a lot of trades simultaneously and they are running 24/7.

Please enlighten me on how you manage to do the same or where you identify the market inefficiencies that hundreds of banks and other financial institutions with dozens of thousands of people and virtually unlimited money cannot. I am very curious.

If you can't well I will just keep rather flipping a coin and bet on the winning side to yield the same if not a better result.

But the OP is not talking about trading, he is talking about investing.

 

[Joct]

So you are saying you are able to beat the market looking at candle charts, solely based on price which I will translate to "technical analysis". Any inefficiencies in the market will be very quickly offset by systematic trading firms including investment banks and funds who have quants with PhDs in AI and Applied Maths who spend their lives developing algorithms with machines with quantum like processing power coupled with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investable money. These machines can analyse, make a decision and trade in less than 1ms (this is why they are located near and at times in the same buildings as the financial exchanges themselves) and they thrive making less than 0.1% on a lot of trades simultaneously and they are running 24/7.

Please enlighten me on how you manage to do the same or where you identify the market inefficiencies that hundreds of banks and other financial institutions with dozens of thousands of people and virtually unlimited money cannot. I am very curious.

It is identifying trends based on price and they happen over time. Find a trend, get in and wait until the trend moves against you and then get out. You lose a bit of profit at the beginning and end, however, you are also not trying to predict anything.

It is not looking for market inefficiencies or high frequency trading, which I agree, I could never compete with the firms with larger budgets and higher intelligence than me. Some of my trades last a couple of days, if they quickly go against me, and others have lasted more than 12 months when using LEAPS.

If you are keen to know more, I encourage you to have a look at the link posted or just Google trend following. What I have written is far too brief to explain it properly.

But the OP is not talking about trading, he is talking about investing.

My apologies, I reread the title and yes it says investing not trading so I'll stop, to avoid derailing the thread.

 

[jakonda]

Below

Oh, hi Martin - I see some people are still around since I left nice, nice. Alright What is CrystalBall saying ?

It is identifying trends based on price and they happen over time. Find a trend, get in and wait until the trend moves against you and then get out. You lose a bit of profit at the beginning and end, however, you are also not trying to predict anything.

It is not looking for market inefficiencies or high frequency trading, which I agree, I could never compete with the firms with larger budgets and higher intelligence than me. Some of my trades last a couple of days, if they quickly go against me, and others have lasted more than 12 months when using LEAPS.

If you are keen to know more, I encourage you to have a look at the link posted or just Google trend following. What I have written is far too brief to explain it properly.


My apologies, I reread the title and yes it says investing not trading so I'll stop, to avoid derailing the thread.

No mate, it's good ! Yes, I am aware of turtle system. Good to know and expand the knowledge. But how you monitor what you look at when deciding to make investment/trade. You use free tools ? Threat is indeed more on investing but 'traders' are welcome to discuss and share info. From your posts I assume you are pure algo/trend follower, but this year CTAs among other asset classes inside HF spectrum had the worst performance, didn't they ?

 

[Martin Everson]

Alright What is CrystalBall saying ?

It's saying never look for how or where to put your money when it comes to the markets. Just invest in the below two funds and never look at the markets ever again.

Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VT)
Vanguard Total World Bond (BNDW)

 

[JohnnyDoe]

It's saying never look for how or where to put your money when it comes to the markets. Just invest in the below two funds and never look at the markets ever again.

Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VT)
Vanguard Total World Bond (BNDW)

Or ACWI
The two in what proportions? How to rebalance? Are you happy with how they weigh their holdings? For example, are China and India well covered?
Is the old predicament on bonds still valid?
What about small stocks?
And what about uncorrelated instruments?
JEPI, SVOL…
Do you seek capital appreciation or income?

 

[Mercury]

Do you seek capital appreciation or income?

This.
Investment strategies along with associated risk vary greatly whether you're looking for growth, income or just capital preservation keeping up at least with inflation.

 

[Martin Everson]

The two in what proportions?

60/40 Bond/Stocks

How to rebalance?

You don't. It's invest and forget.

Are you happy with how they weigh their holdings? For example, are China and India well covered?

Yes and yes. China 3.2% and India 2% in VT and its overwhelmingly US focused due to size of US equity markets.

Is the old predicament on bonds still valid?

Which one? I am totally out of the financial markets and totally 100% in physical real estate.

What about small stocks?

Don't waste your time with them.

And what about uncorrelated instruments?
JEPI, SVOL…

Just go for global growth and call it a day.

Do you seek capital appreciation or income?

I seek total return for equity funds. I seek credit quality then income and low volatility for bond funds.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

60/40 Bond/Stocks

This is much prehistory of portfolio balancing, it’s no longer 2008.

You don't. It's invest and forget.

How do you keep your 60/40 in place then?

Yes and yes. China 3.2% and India 2% in VT and its overwhelmingly US focused due to size of US equity markets.

Read: it is unbalanced, hence not a true “global” fund. But if you are happy to invest most of your funds in the US, let’s be it.

Which one? I am totally out of the financial markets and totally 100% in physical real estate.

Rad above about prehistory of portfolio balancing.

Don't waste your time with them.

Until they become the next blue chips.

Just go for global growth and call it a day.

Nothing prevents “global” to be like Japan. Uncorrelation is a good thing.

I seek total return for equity funds. I seek credit quality then income and low volatility for bond funds.

With bonds you could do better with picking the right ones, assuming you have the min. 100/200/500k required for some of the most interesting ones.

Anyway as you are already into real estate we can say you have some diversification in place so you can probably sleep well, at least for now.

 

[cryptofriendly]

Left the rigged stock market game fully after getting liquidated during covid.
BTC only now, at least I can sleep at night.

 

[Martin Everson]

How do you keep your 60/40 in place then?

As I said I am 100% in physical real estate. But you put 60% in BNDW and 40% VT and forget about it - fire and forget. You don't ever rebalance.

Read: it is unbalanced, hence not a true “global” fund. But if you are happy to invest most of your funds in the US, let’s be it.

US makes up around 42% of global equity market....lol. Do you understand anything about the global equity markets....lol?

This is much prehistory of portfolio balancing, it’s no longer 2008.

Not sure what your point is here...but each to their own.

With bonds you could do better with picking the right ones, assuming you have the min. 100/200/500k required for some of the most interesting ones.

No chance. Unless you have at least $10m to ensure that no individual bond issuer makes up no more than max 2% of your portfolio you are better of with a bond fund. A lot of bonds have an initial minimum buy size of $200k + $1000 increments also. So getting the diversification is not possible without huge deployment of capital. And hence there is no easy way you can replicate BNDW's 17,822 investment grade bonds it contains....lol. Bond picking is extremely risky due to interest rate risks. I exited my AAA government bonds before rate rises. I would be sitting on 30-35% of capital lose or more if I didnt time it right...lol.

Anyway my crystal ball is now a door stop for the day.

Everyone should should seek professional investment advice anyway. Maybe we can have a 5 year bet thread and see whose strategy performs best with a prize at end . Cue the crypto crowd .

P.S Back to thread topic....

 

[JohnnyDoe]

But you put 60% in BNDW and 40% VT and forget about it - fire and forget. You don't ever rebalance.

If you forget about it without ever rebalancing, it will not remain 60/40

US makes up around 42% of global equity market....lol. Do you understand anything about the global equity markets....lol?

US makes up 25% of the global economy. I look at the present and forecasted growth of the world economies.

Not sure what your point is here...but each to their own.

MPT is history.

No chance. Unless you have at least $10m to ensure that no individual bond issuer makes up no more than max 2% of your portfolio you are better of with a bond fund.

2% is unrealistic and falls into the "diworsification" category described by Warren Buffett (btw BRK.A holds less than 50 stocks).

A lot of bonds have an initial minimum buy size of $200k + $1000 increments also.

$1.5-2m is enough to build a well diversified portfolio.

 

[Tomy223]

As I said I am 100% in physical real estate. But you put 60% in BNDW and 40% VT and forget about it - fire and forget. You don't ever rebalance.



US makes up around 42% of global equity market....lol. Do you understand anything about the global equity markets....lol?



Not sure what your point is here...but each to their own.



No chance. Unless you have at least $10m to ensure that no individual bond issuer makes up no more than max 2% of your portfolio you are better of with a bond fund. A lot of bonds have an initial minimum buy size of $200k + $1000 increments also. So getting the diversification is not possible without huge deployment of capital. And hence there is no easy way you can replicate BNDW's 17,822 investment grade bonds it contains....lol. Bond picking is extremely risky due to interest rate risks. I exited my AAA government bonds before rate rises. I would be sitting on 30-35% of capital lose or more if I didnt time it right...lol.

Anyway my crystal ball is now a door stop for the day.

Everyone should should seek professional investment advice anyway. Maybe we can have a 5 year bet thread and see whose strategy performs best with a prize at end . Cue the crypto crowd .

P.S Back to thread topic....

In my view, your investment philosophy is better than anyone. It is hard to find a professional who don't rob you. I don't even trust my mother these days. The whole world is like an ocean.

Would you suggest some books align with your philosophy? How do you play both sides with real estate when it comes to Geopolitics?

P.S I found a Reddit german finance sub with people similar to you