What is going on in Ukraine

CALL US ON +971 50 4467827 - TO SETUP YOUR NON-CRS COMPANY STRUCTURE IN DUBAI.
Bank Accounts, Company Formations, Tax Planning, Residency Solutions, and more

JohnnyDoe

Mentor Group Gold
I do not think it is much of a mystery... and its not what is being presented. Start with what is in Putin's head:

1) The US has been promoting bringing Ukraine into NATO. This is as if the USSR had tried to get Mexico into the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War... pretty huge incitement.
2) In 2014, a democratically elected Russian leaning government was thrown out in a coup, probably CIA instigated. Its called the Maidan "Revolution". The word revolution is there for a reason...
3) The US was screwing with Russia's internal politics long before Putin started screwing with us. There is an ostensibly private organization called the National Endowment for Democracy that is fully funded by Congress. It issues grants to local country NGOs to evolve democracy in the grantees country. Many of these grants have gone to Russia.

Putin is not a happy camper about these things.
He wants to screw up NATO and weaken it. What he needs to do is to get the major NATO players going in different directions.

Putin is inciting the US and the UK to sanction Russia. These sanctions are quite detrimental to Germany and some of the other Western nations that rely on Russia's fossil fuel and other trade. They do not want more sanctions (and have not been following them anyway).

Here is what I think is happening:
1) Putin will not make a broad attack on Ukraine. Russian forces are positioned to freeze the major parts of the Ukraine military in the North and South away from the East.
2) Russia will attempt to separate the Donbas Eastern region of Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine. This region was partially separated in 2014. It has a large ethnic Russian speaking population. Putin put that into motion today by recognizing the two separatist "republics" already set up in that region, followed up by troops to support their independence.
3) Ukraine has the choice of removing its blocking forces in the North or the South to contest this. That would open the way for a blitz into Kyiv and up from the Ukraine. Ukraine will probably not do that... which means ceding the Donbas to Russia.
4) The US ask for heavy sanctions from the EU... which we have already done. If the sanction damage Germany too much they will not comply...breaking NATO. If the sanctions are weak then NATO is perceived as weak.
Either way, Putin gets the Donbas AND NATO is weakened.

The US Administration has been running around like a chicken with its head cut off promoting doomsday scenarios. These are based on "take the bait" troop movements made by Russia.

Joe... Putin is screwing with you. He was never going to wage a big war. Big wars are very very expensive. Smart munitions cost an arm and a leg...Russia does not have big stockpiles. Armor and vehicles get chewed up quickly by infantry with anti-tank weapons. Israel found that out in 1973... the weapons are vastly better today. Russia also does not have the logistics train to maintain an offensive... munitions, spare parts and technical personnel.
The Russian military is a small corp of good troops with modern weapons with a much larger cadre of unproven troops with Cold War weapons. There are a limited number of reliable units. The rest are not really likely to give their lives for the Motherland.

Overall its like Putin is playing chess getting advice from a grandmaster and Biden is playing checkers with Corn Pop advising him. Actually... Corn Pop might be better than some of the people Biden has around him.
 

Martin Everson

Offshore Retiree
Staff member
Mentor Group Gold
Elite Member
Good analysis.

I hope the west is willing to take in any potential refugees fleeing an escalation in conflict. Great opportunity to migrate to EU if life is not so good for you in Ukraine :D.

I am really interested to see how this plays out and hope no civilians get hurt. Ukraine is just a pawn in this proxy war between US and Russia and the comedian turned president is in over his head. He will probably flee the country at some point.
 

369

Entrepreneur
he doesn't else he would know there are 2 possibilities
1.coworking between US and RUS using ukraine to increase stagflation ,implement foreign nato military in eastern countries, take away peoples attention etc
2.US playin a game were they can only win.Either winning battle in ukraine and belarus would fall quickly and crimea too which would be the end for putin or get the north stream 2 closed so russia can't sell their gas to europe and loses influence.

Either way the real losers are the european citizens who are getting robbed from their wealth through massiv higher stagflation
 

Golden Fleece

Entrepreneur
Here is what I think is happening:
1) Putin will not make a broad attack on Ukraine. Russian forces are positioned to freeze the major parts of the Ukraine military in the North and South away from the East.
2) Russia will attempt to separate the Donbas Eastern region of Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine. This region was partially separated in 2014. It has a large ethnic Russian speaking population. Putin put that into motion today by recognizing the two separatist "republics" already set up in that region, followed up by troops to support their independence.
3) Ukraine has the choice of removing its blocking forces in the North or the South to contest this. That would open the way for a blitz into Kyiv and up from the Ukraine. Ukraine will probably not do that... which means ceding the Donbas to Russia.
4) The US ask for heavy sanctions from the EU... which we have already done. If the sanction damage Germany too much they will not comply...breaking NATO. If the sanctions are weak then NATO is perceived as weak.
I agree with most of your analysis. I would only add two comments.

I also believed point #1, but it appears that we are both wrong. Multiple recent news reports state that the Russian Army is headed toward Kiev, with estimates that the capital will fall in three days or so. I am absolutely shocked by that. I thought that Putin would declare victory after a minor incursion, with his points already made and most of his objectives satisfied. Such a move appears totally unnecessary to achieve his stated objectives. Perhaps he really does wish to reconstitute the area of the USSR.

Neither Germany or any other nation will break NATO. All the European socialist welfare programs exist only because the U.S. has subsidized Europe's defense through NATO for nearly 80 years. If Europe actually provided for its own defense, their welfare states would collapse. That would be a good thing, but it's not going to happen. Many Europeans who never believed that they required a military defense will now see that they do. Perhaps that is what the elites always intended. Maybe that is why they refused to placate Russia with a simple promise that Ukraine would never join NATO, which I think was entirely reasonable.
 

polonieth

Entrepreneur
I do not think it is much of a mystery... and its not what is being presented. Start with what is in Putin's head:

1) The US has been promoting bringing Ukraine into NATO. This is as if the USSR had tried to get Mexico into the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War... pretty huge incitement.
2) In 2014, a democratically elected Russian leaning government was thrown out in a coup, probably CIA instigated. Its called the Maidan "Revolution". The word revolution is there for a reason...
3) The US was screwing with Russia's internal politics long before Putin started screwing with us. There is an ostensibly private organization called the National Endowment for Democracy that is fully funded by Congress. It issues grants to local country NGOs to evolve democracy in the grantees country. Many of these grants have gone to Russia.

Putin is not a happy camper about these things.
He wants to screw up NATO and weaken it. What he needs to do is to get the major NATO players going in different directions.

Putin is inciting the US and the UK to sanction Russia. These sanctions are quite detrimental to Germany and some of the other Western nations that rely on Russia's fossil fuel and other trade. They do not want more sanctions (and have not been following them anyway).

Here is what I think is happening:
1) Putin will not make a broad attack on Ukraine. Russian forces are positioned to freeze the major parts of the Ukraine military in the North and South away from the East.
2) Russia will attempt to separate the Donbas Eastern region of Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine. This region was partially separated in 2014. It has a large ethnic Russian speaking population. Putin put that into motion today by recognizing the two separatist "republics" already set up in that region, followed up by troops to support their independence.
3) Ukraine has the choice of removing its blocking forces in the North or the South to contest this. That would open the way for a blitz into Kyiv and up from the Ukraine. Ukraine will probably not do that... which means ceding the Donbas to Russia.
4) The US ask for heavy sanctions from the EU... which we have already done. If the sanction damage Germany too much they will not comply...breaking NATO. If the sanctions are weak then NATO is perceived as weak.
Either way, Putin gets the Donbas AND NATO is weakened.

The US Administration has been running around like a chicken with its head cut off promoting doomsday scenarios. These are based on "take the bait" troop movements made by Russia.

Joe... Putin is screwing with you. He was never going to wage a big war. Big wars are very very expensive. Smart munitions cost an arm and a leg...Russia does not have big stockpiles. Armor and vehicles get chewed up quickly by infantry with anti-tank weapons. Israel found that out in 1973... the weapons are vastly better today. Russia also does not have the logistics train to maintain an offensive... munitions, spare parts and technical personnel.
The Russian military is a small corp of good troops with modern weapons with a much larger cadre of unproven troops with Cold War weapons. There are a limited number of reliable units. The rest are not really likely to give their lives for the Motherland.

Overall its like Putin is playing chess getting advice from a grandmaster and Biden is playing checkers with Corn Pop advising him. Actually... Corn Pop might be better than some of the people Biden has around him.
Yup good analysis. What is happening is basically a return of the CFR policies that were paused under Trump.

Point 2 is the one people forget, there has been war in Ukraine since 2014, yet nobody cared, now of course everyone has a Ukrainian flag as their profile picture on social media.
I am really interested to see how this plays out and hope no civilians get hurt. Ukraine is just a porn in this proxy war between US and Russia and the comedian turned president is in over his head. He will probably flee the country at some point.
Me too, but even if they don't get hurt, I'm sure we will see some videos coming out showing otherwise.
 

Martin Everson

Offshore Retiree
Staff member
Mentor Group Gold
Elite Member
Many Europeans who never believed that they required a military defense will now see that they do. Perhaps that is what the elites always intended. Maybe that is why they refused to placate Russia with a simple promise that Ukraine would never join NATO, which I think was entirely reasonable.

This might be what it is all about in end. US pushing for more NATO spending by European members. More NATO spending means buying from US defense equipment i.e NATO compatible hardware i.e US approved ns2. In end this is all about money for US defense contractors whose ex-US generals sit on their boards with huge salaries and profit from instability around the world.Look how stupid Saudi is buying endless Patriot missiles at $3m a rocket to shoot down cheap drones. War is a racket sadly.

You are right all this could have been avoided by Ukraine simply refusing to ever join NATO and instead have good relations with Russia. Russia is not moving away they are a neighbor and good relationships with neighbors is important for mutual security.

The US in end cannot and will not provide Ukraine any security as in end the conflict is all about money for US arms companies. Whether US government sells arms to Ukraine or gifts them the US arms companies still get paid to produce them.


Russia knows what US is up to in Ukraine. Remember this leaked phone call where US officials are deciding who should be president in Ukraine...lol.

 

polonieth

Entrepreneur
This might be what it is all about in end. US pushing for more NATO spending by European members. More NATO spending means buying from US defense equipment i.e NATO compatible hardware i.e US approved ns2. In end this is all about money for US defense contractors whose ex-US generals sit on their boards with huge salaries and profit from instability around the world.Look how stupid Saudi is buying endless Patriot missiles at $3m a rocket to shoot down cheap drones. War is a racket sadly.

You are right all this could have been avoided by Ukraine simply refusing to ever join NATO and instead have good relations with Russia. Russia is not moving away they are a neighbor and good relationships with neighbors is important for mutual security.

The US in end cannot and will not provide Ukraine any security as in end the conflict is all about money for US arms companies. Whether US government sells arms to Ukraine or gifts them the US arms companies still get paid to produce them.


Russia knows what US is up to in Ukraine. Remember this leaked phone call where US officials are deciding who should be president in Ukraine...lol.

The western media has completely memory-holed this conversation, alongside the Maidan coup, Biden's dodgy dealings, the downing of flight MH-17 and the fact that Ukraine has been at war since 2014.

I've been watching live webcam footage in Kyiv. I don't understand a war where citizens can live vlog, the metro still runs, the electricity and internet are still running, and most people are going about daily life.
 

Offshr

New member
I do not think it is much of a mystery... and its not what is being presented. Start with what is in Putin's head:

1) The US has been promoting bringing Ukraine into NATO. This is as if the USSR had tried to get Mexico into the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War... pretty huge incitement.
2) In 2014, a democratically elected Russian leaning government was thrown out in a coup, probably CIA instigated. Its called the Maidan "Revolution". The word revolution is there for a reason...
3) The US was screwing with Russia's internal politics long before Putin started screwing with us. There is an ostensibly private organization called the National Endowment for Democracy that is fully funded by Congress. It issues grants to local country NGOs to evolve democracy in the grantees country. Many of these grants have gone to Russia.

Putin is not a happy camper about these things.
He wants to screw up NATO and weaken it. What he needs to do is to get the major NATO players going in different directions.

Putin is inciting the US and the UK to sanction Russia. These sanctions are quite detrimental to Germany and some of the other Western nations that rely on Russia's fossil fuel and other trade. They do not want more sanctions (and have not been following them anyway).

Here is what I think is happening:
1) Putin will not make a broad attack on Ukraine. Russian forces are positioned to freeze the major parts of the Ukraine military in the North and South away from the East.
2) Russia will attempt to separate the Donbas Eastern region of Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine. This region was partially separated in 2014. It has a large ethnic Russian speaking population. Putin put that into motion today by recognizing the two separatist "republics" already set up in that region, followed up by troops to support their independence.
3) Ukraine has the choice of removing its blocking forces in the North or the South to contest this. That would open the way for a blitz into Kyiv and up from the Ukraine. Ukraine will probably not do that... which means ceding the Donbas to Russia.
4) The US ask for heavy sanctions from the EU... which we have already done. If the sanction damage Germany too much they will not comply...breaking NATO. If the sanctions are weak then NATO is perceived as weak.
Either way, Putin gets the Donbas AND NATO is weakened.

The US Administration has been running around like a chicken with its head cut off promoting doomsday scenarios. These are based on "take the bait" troop movements made by Russia.

Joe... Putin is screwing with you. He was never going to wage a big war. Big wars are very very expensive. Smart munitions cost an arm and a leg...Russia does not have big stockpiles. Armor and vehicles get chewed up quickly by infantry with anti-tank weapons. Israel found that out in 1973... the weapons are vastly better today. Russia also does not have the logistics train to maintain an offensive... munitions, spare parts and technical personnel.
The Russian military is a small corp of good troops with modern weapons with a much larger cadre of unproven troops with Cold War weapons. There are a limited number of reliable units. The rest are not really likely to give their lives for the Motherland.

Overall its like Putin is playing chess getting advice from a grandmaster and Biden is playing checkers with Corn Pop advising him. Actually... Corn Pop might be better than some of the people Biden has around him.
Jeez, what a nonsense
No offense but you need to read a lot about this region, people and history to be able to make analysis of this level)

Good analysis.

I hope the west is willing to take in any potential refugees fleeing an escalation in conflict. Great opportunity to migrate to EU if life is not so good for you in Ukraine :D.
In fact much better than in many of the western countries. More than half of my Ukrainian aquintants visited Maldives, Dubai for the last 2 years. Driving premium cars. Remember that they are earning in gross Cannot say the same about EU beggars that are saving for Rayanair tickets to travel around the EU once a year)

They told me jokes few times how Europeans look at them in the shops when they bring tonnes of cash with them.

I am really interested to see how this plays out and hope no civilians get hurt. Ukraine is just a pawn in this proxy war between US and Russia and the comedian turned president is in over his head. He will probably flee the country at some point.
Seems that this prediction was wrong ;)
 
Last edited:

polonieth

Entrepreneur
Jeez, what a nonsense
No offense but you need to read a lot about this region, people and history to be able to make analysis of this level)


In fact much better than in many of the western countries. More than half of my Ukrainian aquintants visited Maldives, Dubai for the last 2 years. Driving premium cars. Remember that they are earning in gross Cannot say the same about EU beggars that are saving for Rayanair tickets to travel around the EU once a year)
To claim that life in Ukraine is much better than many of the western countries is ludicrous.

They are losing 500-1000 men per day. Is life better for those guys?!

The only people life is going well for over there are the corrupt ones bleeding money, weapons and other forms of aid from the place. Fancy a Javelin for $30k? All yours sir!

Your wealthier acquaintances would be living well wherever they lived. I assume they went to Dubai on February 22nd and have been watching the military operation unfold from the marina.
Seems that this prediction was wrong ;)

"At some point" still a long way to go. I think it's more likely Zelensky is removed by the CFR. Just glad he got that Vogue shoot in beforehand, it was on his bucket list.
 

backpacker

Entrepreneur
No offense but you need to read a lot about this region, people and history to be able to make analysis of this level)
Indeed, and it is high time for FOR YOU to read (before posting war propaganda)-> Russian President Putin announces military operation in Ukraine
More than half of my Ukrainian aquintants visited Maldives, Dubai for the last 2 years. Driving premium cars. Remember that they are earning in gross C
So, you know the members of the corrupt elite .....
Cannot say the same about EU beggars that are saving for Rayanair tickets to travel around the EU once a year)
Arrogance comes before the downfall.
They told me jokes few times how Europeans look at them in the shops when they bring tonnes of cash with them.
So, tyour UA-aquaintances are not Europeans even though Ukraine claims to be Europe (and geographically is Europe).
Tons of cash: ILLICIT WEALTH -> corruption -> UA.

Well, with your post you managed to paint the typical stereotype of Ukraine. Not sure if that is what you wanted archieve. :rolleyes:
 

sonato

Offshore Agent
Mentor Group Gold

polonieth

Entrepreneur
That is a nonsense. This statement is a part of western propaganda that there is a life only in the west, and everyone who is living well in other countries made his money on drugs, weapons and other ****. Complete NONSENSE!
There are a LOT of successful businesses in Ukraine. A lot of agricultural companies, factories, wholesale trading, metal export companies and service businesses, a lot of IT.
You should have specified pre-war. Life in Ukraine was certainly better than in a lot of Western Countries. I'd pick Kiev over London any day of the week

The areas that are traditionally Russian speaking, and the areas that Russia have, or are going to capture, represent around 90% of Ukraine's GDP. So not much left.
 

Offshr

New member
The areas that are traditionally Russian speaking, and the areas that Russia have, or are going to capture, represent around 90% of Ukraine's GDP. So not much leleft.
Well, yes and no. The donetsk region gave around 10%. Luhansk was mainly useless, the poorest region of Ukraine. The rest of the territory is the wast steppes non of use.
The East regions were also the most donated one. There were things like coal mines that suffered huge losses and needed donations.
Kherson will be recaptured by the Ukrainians anytime soon. It is already cut from the left bank mainland by destroying bridges.
The most significant suffering would be on the steel industry, with destroyed Mariupol.
Overall it is around 15% of gdp that would be cut.
The most significant part of gdp in Ukraine is services and it is concentrated in Kyiv that alone gives 20% of gdp.
 

polonieth

Entrepreneur
Ukraine won't be recapturing anything. The war is lost.

Russia will take Kharkov and Odessa. When all is done, it will posses territory that represents 90% of Ukrainian gdp.

Unfortunately Ukraine is finished as a nation state. It fell into the trap of being a western puppet.

I hope more of their citizens realise this, they should be disgusted at the Zelensky regime, Kolomoisky and all the other corrupt individuals.
 

backpacker

Entrepreneur
Well, yes and no. The donetsk region gave around 10%. Luhansk was mainly useless, the poorest region of Ukraine. The rest of the territory is the wast steppes non of use.
The East regions were also the most donated one. There were things like coal mines that suffered huge losses and needed donations.
Kherson will be recaptured by the Ukrainians anytime soon. It is already cut from the left bank mainland by destroying bridges.
The most significant suffering would be on the steel industry, with destroyed Mariupol.
Overall it is around 15% of gdp that would be cut.
The most significant part of gdp in Ukraine is services and it is concentrated in Kyiv that alone gives 20% of gdp.
:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:

Martin Everson

Offshore Retiree
Staff member
Mentor Group Gold
Elite Member
I have cleaned up posts and issued warning for those using foul language against forum rules. Feel free to post again but there is no need to swear.
 
Top