Basically what i've been saying - Bitcoin=liquidity / crypto outperforms debasement.

[wellington]

nah do yourself a fav and save that cash. Rug paul "basically risk-free" luna/ust does not provide any real value in *crypto*.
You can easily figure out the some about shatcoins on youtube etc. for free.

Actually... Raoul is a macro investor...

Macro means 'long-term' positioning.

Where Terra/USD was concerned it was a fraud... from an outsiders perspective, much like FTX, there was questions, but these were negated by the parties involved and the 'reputations' specifically involved -> for example the strong support from US based hedge funds/VC's in the Terra project, or Government officials where FTX is concerned.

A Macro Investor usually has a diversified position and counter hedges, and recognise some will fail.

What Raoul lost in Terra-Luna he offset in SOL/ETH.

That's how professional investors invest opposed to speculating/gambling, they also sit through cycles, from tops to bottoms..

Now where Real Vision specifically is concerned - moving away from Raouls impressive personal financial history accumulating a networth of 400-500m$ having started out as young scrappy kid looking at the glitz and allure of London's fintech scene back in the day, rising through some of the most prestigious financial companies in the world and *retiring* so successfully and then launching his own internal managed fund and growing it to where it is and then creating Realvision is quite remarkable.

Now going back to Realvision -> it is a platform where the best macro minds come together and talk their book, where they give their theories and where they back that up with evidence.

It's not 'just Raoul' -> He created the platform and grew it from nothing. Today it's becoming the place to go.

Raoul if you personally have an issue with him, is actually in only a % of the interviews as a host.

• Ash Bennington 312
• Raoul Pal 296
• Ed Harrison 164
• Justine Underhill 128
• Max Wiethe 104
• Brian Price 102
• Maggie Lake 100
• Jake Merl 82
• Michael Green 82
• Grant Williams 74
• Jack Farley 60
• Harry Melandri 43
• Tony Greer 40
• Santiago Velez 36
• Jason Buck 30
• Roger Hirst 30
• Andreas Steno Larsen 29
• Larry McDonald 23
• Robin Schmidt 23
• Sebastian Moonjava 23

If you were new to realvision, with which program would you start?

View attachment 5640

Go for essential, if you learn anything then go from there.

I believe i had free invites to give away will check if any are left.

Hold off buying @jafo - sent an email to Raoul, see if he can send me a coupon for 1 month free and then you can have a nosy for yourself and see if it's worth your time etc.

 

[stronco]

What Raoul lost in Terra-Luna he offset in SOL/ETH.

Haha, riiiiight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453890685522821126

Btw I was god tier memeber for a year. Never again.

 

[jafo]

I believe i had free invites to give away will check if any are left.

Is there a coupon code? I was send some but they are all invalid

 

[wellington]

Is there a coupon code? I was send some but they are all invalid

View attachment 5643

I've emailed will get a reply today/tomorrow.

Haha, riiiiight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453890685522821126

Btw I was god tier memeber for a year. Never again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453890688198795292

-> missed that comment on the same post on the same day.

Also like pointed out, Raouls positions are his, thats not the position of the people that go on Real Vision, you need to separate them.

You have issues with Raoul, you've not given any valid argument against Realvision.

 

[stronco]

You have issues with Raoul, you've not given any valid argument against Realvision.

Anything related to crypto on his platform is toddler level stuff (or just bad advice).

If you are a crypto toddler, its a great match.

Best of luck.

Also like pointed out, Raouls positions are his, thats not the position of the people that go on Real Vision, you need to separate them.

Here I was thinking you were saying how he is macro and I sent a link how he is micro (longing the pico top with the biggest position of his life by a factor of 10, with a 6-9 month horizon which is not macro) in five seconds. Maybe I am in another universe.

 

[JackAlabama]

Haha, riiiiight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453890685522821126

Btw I was god tier memeber for a year. Never again.

Yeah. Trading like a pro. Go long at the tops of ranges and short at the bottoms.

Anything related to crypto on his platform is toddler level stuff (or just bad advice).

If you are a crypto toddler, its a great match.

Best of luck.



Here I was thinking you were saying how he is macro and I sent a link how he is micro (longing the pico top with the biggest position of his life by a factor of 10, with a 6-9 month horizon which is not macro) in five seconds. Maybe I am in another universe.

pretty well said.

 

[wellington]

Anything related to crypto on his platform is toddler level stuff (or just bad advice).

If you are a crypto toddler, its a great match.

Best of luck.

I'd have to disagree.

I am in the space - been in since 2010, Raoul has been involved since 2012/2013 if memory serves.

The parties specific to macro crypto - institutional coming into one platform and discussing what they are doing is unmatched IMO.

Though Realvision is more of a 'macro' platform for myself, opposed to crypto.

Here I was thinking you were saying how he is macro and I sent a link how he is micro (longing the pico top with the biggest position of his life by a factor of 10, with a 6-9 month horizon which is not macro) in five seconds. Maybe I am in another universe.

I didn't send anything, i responded to a post about him longing a small position at the time (around the top - it wasn't the top) and taking it on the chin, my follow up post was his remarks about not following him, as clearly shown.

Again i reiterate, a small % compared to his bag(s) overall (in crypto) from observation of his positions/holdings.

----

Again i reiterate as mentioned right up above, your personal bias/beef towards him and possibly a position you followed without hedges/or control on allocations is not relevant to his overall theory as outlined and continuously followed since 2013 [debasement via debt-refi-cycles] in the PDF i shared.

In addition this is not relevant towards my suggestion that Jafo have a look around Realvision and see if there's anything he can learn there.

----

I won't get drawn into this discussion any further, with yourself.

 

[stronco]

>I am in the space - been in since 2010, Raoul has been involved since 2012/2013 if memory serves.

Yes me too, I bought my first BTC in 1992.

>I didn't send anything, i responded to a post about him longing a small position at the time (around the top - it wasn't the top) and taking it on the chin, my follow up post was his remarks about not following him, as clearly shown.

Yes agreed, this is how people normally describe a small position of (direct quote): This is by far and away the biggest personal position of my entire life by a factor of 10 (or more).

On that date price of ETH was around 4400 USD. Top was a week later, at 4800 USD. How is this not pico top? Duration of trade is between 6 and 9 months, I probably don't have to tell you what followed.

Pretty wild huh given his "experience" and all the "knowledge" and "smart people" and other "valuable advice" and whatever at his disposal.

>Again i reiterate as mentioned right up above, your personal bias/beef towards him and possibly a position you followed without hedges/or control on allocations is not relevant to his overall theory as outlined and continuously followed since 2013 [debasement via debt-refi-cycles] in the PDF i shared.

The hedgoooooor. Tell me you have no clue of finance without telling me you have no clue of finance.

 

[wellington]

>I am in the space - been in since 2010, Raoul has been involved since 2012/2013 if memory serves.

Yes me too, I bought my first BTC in 1992.

Impossible. A) Didn't exist. B) anyone who bought in the early days knows specifically how hard it was to obtain - usually as I pointed out just the other day - European wise, one moving funds from bank -> Paypal -> Virwox -> linden Dollar -> BTC -> off-Virwox.

That process took a week, in addition you didn't buy to 'invest' but to 'use'.


---

Referring to the rest of your drivel, he basically said it was reckless in his post that you shared -> irrelevant because it was leveraged and not his entire bag.

In addition i refer directly to one of my first (if not first post on the subject).

A Macro Investor usually has a diversified position and counter hedges, and recognise some will fail.

What Raoul lost in Terra-Luna he offset in SOL/ETH.

You appear to be heavily vengeful and anti R.P, over a trade, thats kinda funny, i can say at this time we probably have 180 positions open and a chunk of them are -sub entry.

The hedge or counter positions make up for the sub.

That's life.

The hedgoooooor. Tell me you have no clue of finance without telling me you have no clue of finance.

As for this, this is a forum, not twitter.

Try and act professionally and not try and become personal.

----
We do ok, very ok for the record.

 

[stronco]

Dude I thought you "won't get drawn into this discussion any further, with yourself." How can I trust you on anything you say?

Yeah you are right, it was not 1992, it was 1989! kek

I am glad you doxed yourself as an user of SR or some other CP dark market.

I don't know what you are smoking, but it must be some good s**t. I don't follow RP noob trades dude.

Hedges aren't free magic pill. 99% of people who say the word "hedge" just signal they are losing money. Newsflash, hedge funds (for the most part) don't hedge.

RP is an idiot. His idiot moves stack from here to the moon. He sells "ideas" and "info" which even himself can't use. The discord is only noobs. The whole crypto "knowledge base" is a joke.

For toddlers.

 

[wellington]

I am glad you doxed yourself as an user of SR or some other CP dark market.

Yes, I used dark web, interestingly a lot of people on here have also... weird you find it weird or appear to get something from that when a chunk of the people on here have used the dark web, and or derivatives of it.

For me I was a recognised white hat hacker back in the day-
Is that illegal? - No - it was the only way to buy exploit testing kits to defend against hacking back in the early days of the open web, i don't need to hide i own a public company and I've spoken and my organisation addressed governments on the international stage about certain fields i've worked in, by international stage - as in the stage where all governments work together to objectives - i guess that should lead you to an understanding of the respect i once garnered when working in the public space, never hidden anything on here or elsewhere.

I am glad you doxed yourself as an user of SR or some other CP dark market.

I don't know what you are smoking, but it must be some good s**t. I don't follow RP noob trades dude.

Hedges aren't free magic pill. 99% of people who say the word "hedge" just signal they are losing money. Newsflash, hedge funds (for the most part) don't hedge.

RP is an idiot. His idiot moves stack from here to the moon. He sells "ideas" and "info" which even himself can't use. The discord is only noobs. The whole crypto "knowledge base" is a joke.

For toddlers.

All of this part of your commentary is personal, its biased and attacking.

It doesn't support a well reasoned argument, your ending word summed it up but may i suggest "written by a toddler".

 

[wellington]

DM sent @jafo

 

[stronco]

All of this part of your commentary is personal, its biased and attacking.

It doesn't support a well reasoned argument, your ending word summed it up but may i suggest "written by a toddler".

If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it?

 

[jafo]

DM sent @jafo

Got it! Joined the site already! Looks very good. I'm learning some new stuff. For US$179 it is peanuts. My college credits in the early 80s were US$ 550 per credit. It gave me a nice piece of paper that seems valuable to the unlearned or unproductive but has brought me ZERO profits IRL, so this was a sale and a breeze

Merci mille fois

 

[wellington]

Got it! Joined the site already! Looks very good. I'm learning some new stuff. For US$179 it is peanuts. My college credits in the early 80s were US$ 550 per credit. It gave me a nice piece of paper that seems valuable to the unlearned or unproductive but has brought me ZERO profits IRL, so this was a sale and a breeze

Merci mille fois

Search | Real Vision

Real Vision examines finance, business and the global economy with videos and reports that provide real in-depth analysis from real experts.

app.realvision.com

Not sure what videos you will get access to in there for the tier - but it's worth watching that series.

 

[aragon]

All these talks about bitcoin outperforming other assets are always based on a primitive manipulation that you bought bitcoin when it cost next to nothing. There are plenty of people who bought bitcoin when it cost $60k and they lost a lot of money.

The BTC/USD chart has been up only since Bitcoin was created. Technically no one has lost any money, except those who bought and sold at the wrong times, or who were irresponsible with their assets. One can fix these things with deeper learning, patience, and capital management.

On the contrary, the purchasing power of USD has been down only since it was created, even more so since Bretton Woods collapsed. Everyone holding USD cash has only lost value.

 

[wellington]

GMI Chart 1 – ISM vs. Bitcoin Implied ISM Pricing

Crypto, as an asset class, is still widely misunderstood.

The narrative that is now – and has been for some time – is that crypto is just a speculative asset that bears no real resemblance to the economy and therefore, unlike many other assets (equities, credit, fixed income, commodities, etc.) is not governed by the same economic fundamentals and is therefore difficult to assess within a traditional global macro framework. Of course, like most assumptions around crypto today, this is completely false.

Below you will find a chart of ISM (our preferred barometer for the business cycle) versus what Bitcoin is currently discounting in terms of where we are in the cycle. As you can tell, the two are very closely correlated and Bitcoin is even leading as you would expect...

​

GMI Chart 2 – Bitcoin YoY% vs. Global M2 YoY%

The fact that Bitcoin has a lead over ISM is being driven by the turn higher in the liquidity cycle, which bottomed last year and continues to rise in year-on-year terms. This is why we have seen such a face-ripping rally in crypto and tech stocks year-to-date: it’s all down to a turn higher in liquidity...

​

GMI Chart 3 – Global Liquidity Cycle vs. GMI Lead Index

Our models for the global liquidity cycle bottomed back in October of last year and continue to suggest an upward trajectory well into 2024...

​

GMI Chart 4 – Fed Net Liquidity vs. Ethereum

Recently, many have also been surprised by the push higher in Ethereum. Here again, it’s all about the liquidity cycle and we expect Fed Net Liquidity to continue higher in 2024 as the Reserve Repo Facility drains to zero, which then prompts the Fed to resort to the use of the balance sheet...

​

GMI Chart 5 – Bitcoin (April 2014 - December 2026) vs. Ethereum Today

Additionally, if you’ve been following these GMI weeklies, you will know that we’ve been calling for a breakout of the bull flag pattern in Ethereum, which has been closely mirroring Bitcoin back in 2016...

​

The GMI Big Picture

Following last week’s negative surprise in October US CPI and PPI numbers, macro is back to scoring in the Macro Spring regime within our framework. This is where we have spent the bulk of 2023 and is the preferred environment for long duration equity plays and liquidity sensitive assets like crypto, which is why tech stocks and crypto have been bar far your best bet in terms of asset allocation picks YTD...

​

Another element that risk assets have been picking up on recently is that after a brief tightening in financial conditions over the summer months driven by a stronger dollar and higher commodity prices, financial conditions have been easing since October despite the push higher in 10-Year Yields to 5%.

Remember, financial conditions can ease with the same level of rates because you need to think about everything in terms of cycles (i.e., the rate of change)...

​

As we’ve been expecting, the Nasdaq has broken out from its bull flag chart pattern...

​

... and we see the same when looking at Semis...

​

It feels as if Apple wants to retest the highs around 198; there is currently a DeMark Sequential Countdown in play on day 5 of 13 higher...

​

In addition, Amazon is very close to a key breakout following the inverse head-and-shoulders bottom pattern that we’ve been flagging for a couple of months now. A weekly close above 148 is the signal to watch out for. We might not do it on this attempt and instead form another right shoulder to complete a smaller inverse head-and-shoulders pattern before the big breakout. Something to keep an eye on...

​

The BTC/USD chart has been up only since Bitcoin was created. Technically no one has lost any money, except those who bought and sold at the wrong times, or who were irresponsible with their assets. One can fix these things with deeper learning, patience, and capital management.

On the contrary, the purchasing power of USD has been down only since it was created, even more so since Bretton Woods collapsed. Everyone holding USD cash has only lost value.

Think Raoul covered it in simple terms in this.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

GMI Chart 1 – ISM vs. Bitcoin Implied ISM Pricing

Crypto, as an asset class, is still widely misunderstood.

The narrative that is now – and has been for some time – is that crypto is just a speculative asset that bears no real resemblance to the economy and therefore, unlike many other assets (equities, credit, fixed income, commodities, etc.) is not governed by the same economic fundamentals and is therefore difficult to assess within a traditional global macro framework. Of course, like most assumptions around crypto today, this is completely false.

Below you will find a chart of ISM (our preferred barometer for the business cycle) versus what Bitcoin is currently discounting in terms of where we are in the cycle. As you can tell, the two are very closely correlated and Bitcoin is even leading as you would expect...

​

GMI Chart 2 – Bitcoin YoY% vs. Global M2 YoY%

The fact that Bitcoin has a lead over ISM is being driven by the turn higher in the liquidity cycle, which bottomed last year and continues to rise in year-on-year terms. This is why we have seen such a face-ripping rally in crypto and tech stocks year-to-date: it’s all down to a turn higher in liquidity...

​

GMI Chart 3 – Global Liquidity Cycle vs. GMI Lead Index

Our models for the global liquidity cycle bottomed back in October of last year and continue to suggest an upward trajectory well into 2024...

​

GMI Chart 4 – Fed Net Liquidity vs. Ethereum

Recently, many have also been surprised by the push higher in Ethereum. Here again, it’s all about the liquidity cycle and we expect Fed Net Liquidity to continue higher in 2024 as the Reserve Repo Facility drains to zero, which then prompts the Fed to resort to the use of the balance sheet...

​

GMI Chart 5 – Bitcoin (April 2014 - December 2026) vs. Ethereum Today

Additionally, if you’ve been following these GMI weeklies, you will know that we’ve been calling for a breakout of the bull flag pattern in Ethereum, which has been closely mirroring Bitcoin back in 2016...

​

The GMI Big Picture

Following last week’s negative surprise in October US CPI and PPI numbers, macro is back to scoring in the Macro Spring regime within our framework. This is where we have spent the bulk of 2023 and is the preferred environment for long duration equity plays and liquidity sensitive assets like crypto, which is why tech stocks and crypto have been bar far your best bet in terms of asset allocation picks YTD...

​

Another element that risk assets have been picking up on recently is that after a brief tightening in financial conditions over the summer months driven by a stronger dollar and higher commodity prices, financial conditions have been easing since October despite the push higher in 10-Year Yields to 5%.

Remember, financial conditions can ease with the same level of rates because you need to think about everything in terms of cycles (i.e., the rate of change)...

​

As we’ve been expecting, the Nasdaq has broken out from its bull flag chart pattern...

​

... and we see the same when looking at Semis...

​

It feels as if Apple wants to retest the highs around 198; there is currently a DeMark Sequential Countdown in play on day 5 of 13 higher...

​

In addition, Amazon is very close to a key breakout following the inverse head-and-shoulders bottom pattern that we’ve been flagging for a couple of months now. A weekly close above 148 is the signal to watch out for. We might not do it on this attempt and instead form another right shoulder to complete a smaller inverse head-and-shoulders pattern before the big breakout. Something to keep an eye on...

​

Think Raoul covered it in simple terms in this.

do you also do horoscopes?

 

[wellington]

From a technical perspective that is one.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

From a technical perspective that is one.

I agree