If only there was a way to buy rubles when it was 140+...Jim Rogers also has been telling people to plow into Russian equities for many years now because "they are a creditor nation". He also said in 1987 market crash that "he wanted to short but didn't think that the exchange will even be there to pay him out as he predicted a total economic collapse".
Also he has been Bullish on Commodities for the last few decades. If you keep saying it, eventually you will be right. It does not make you smart.
The guy is a perpetual doomer predicting total collapse of the entire world for many decades. So far he has been 100% wrong, anybody following him would have underperformed in the good times, and losing -100% in the bad times.
Funnily enough I actually read an interview with him from last week in which he is gleefully talking about his amazing commodities predictions, and didn't say a single word about his awful Russia picks that resulted in -100% loss. Just google "Jim Rogers Russia" for a nice 15 minutes walk down memory lane...
And regarding his farming thoughts: Obviously he has not been talking to any farmers lately.
I talked with actual farmers and it seems from my very limited research that it is much smarter to buy the land and lease it to a farmer for a guaranteed yield, rather than farm it yourself and take the commodity price swing risk\weather-rain-drought risk\machinery costs\fertilizer costs swings\etc. Not to mention this literally means you put all your eggs in one basket = one piece of land in one country in which you are also exposed to land grabs by some new government\regulation\tax changes and the country has you by the balls- you can't sell your land in a hurry if you need to escape. This also comes back to a lack of liquidity- farms\land take a long time to sell especially in times of crisis when you need the money most, and it will take a few years just to break even on your investment even if you are making 25% p.a. You need to be paid a premium for that lack of liquidity.
I'm sure it can be a good investment if you know what you are doing and are diversified enough.
Tell that to families that invested and built Shanghai, making billions until the communists rose to power. Since I know you like books I highly recommend you read "The Last Kings of Shanghai" about this particular subject and sad tale. The biggest investment risk - as anybody that invested in Russia found out - is political\regulatory risk and the only way to avoid it is to diversify.
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Where should one keep their wealth to avoid future potential sanctions?
- Thread starter Martin Everson
- Start date
I don't know where you live, but in my neighborhood you can find enough Russian-speaking old people who are willing to exchange their cash rubles under the bed for 1:200 in EUR or USD...
Look at the countries who sanctioned russia/Russian citizens. Avoid like hell.
It is basically the whole developed world, aka Nato/ EU + Japan, Korea, Singapore.
Arab banks ain't too safe, except maybe UAE who has refused sanctions, Saudis, the same. Qatar, Bahrain, same.
A strong choice is also Jamaica, it has decent rule of law, has not sanctioned Russia so far.
South Africa and Namibia are also strong choices. Namibia has strong rule of law, independent judiciary and has not sanctioned Russia, and I don't think they voted against Russia.
It is basically the whole
Fixed it for you.
Isle of Man deregisters 18 Russian private jets and helicopters
www.theguardian.com
high level of money comes with high level of risk.
nypost.com
May be Only safe heaven is crypto . Not crypto holding with crypto exchange.
with private paper wallet
Thanks
Isle of Man deregisters 18 Russian private jets and helicopters
Following move to enforce sanctions, the aircraft can no longer be flown in UK or EU airspace
high level of money comes with high level of risk.
Top US lawyers growing skittish about working for Russian oligarchs
Top US lawyers growing skittish about working for Russian oligarchs
Not only are Russian oligarchs having trouble hanging onto their mansions and yachts — they’re struggling to keep their fancy New York lawyers.
nypost.com
May be Only safe heaven is crypto . Not crypto holding with crypto exchange.
with private paper wallet
Thanks
Actually, a high level of money comes with a very low level of risk, because you have so much money that you can diversify amongst every conceivable asset class in every investable nation on the planet. In fact, the wealthy have so much money that they can plant entire forests of thousands of acres of trees that will outlive them and then provide lumber income for many future generations.
Any discussion of Russian oligarchs has nothing to do with the typical UHNWI. If you are a criminal or a sanctioned oligarch from a pariah state, then there are indeed fewer and fewer places to hide.
By analogy, Grenada and Antigua just continued their CBI programs for Russian citizens, but that prohibition does not extend to anyone else.
if you are a "politically exposed person" on a level that the US gov is aware of your existense and keeping a check on you, then you're fucked, or atleast, part of your assets are.
For the rest of us, you need to do a risk assesment as @Sols said, and analyze your situation carefully and go from there, but diversify, diversify, diversify, and don't manage all your assets under your own name.
For myself, my most successful investment by far, is the investement that I've done and led me to network with powerful figures specially in MENA and SEA. This kind of networking opens whole different paths for you, paths that you never now existed or would work in real life scenarios, and I'm grateful for these relationships that helped me be who I'm today.
But regarding sanctions and whatnot, having a second passport and residency in "non-allied/neutural" countries helps a lot, Countries that don't take sides and only care about their own benefits, these countries can be a "Foundation" for future investments in most parts of the world.
Of course, this will requires some research and actual work on the ground, but later, you will find that everything will be a smooth sail from there.
So to summarize, second passport, residency in a neutural country (not switzerland, they are far from being "neutral" ) and diversified assets under different names/structures.
For crypto, what can I say! the past couple of weeks showed me that, if these Clown f*****s really want to f**k the crypto market and turn it upside down, they can, they really can, they have all the power to do so, and they can ban and criminalize dealing with crypto and any entity that deals with crypto.
So, forget about exchanges with swift, IBANs, visa/mc...etc. we will have nothing, and you will find the whole market crashing like a row of dominos in a matter of minutes.
Here is the thing, people are f lazy and they want convenience more than anything else, I'm talking about "venmo" or "cash up" experience, pull these things away from them and you will have ghosted platforms.
but but what about"P2P" Exchanges? they can't ban these right? Nope, they absolutely can ban them, they just need to freeze their owner's assets, and these platforms will be closed the next day.
It's f*****g annoying how the US controls the rest of the world with a piece of paper and an ink pen, they didn't even need to move an inch and they fucked the economy of a nuclear powerhouse.
But Crypto? yeah yeah, crypto my a*s, Most people in this forum know that I'm one of the biggest crypto fans out there, but I don't like living in a fantasy world, and we saw how in a couple of days the US and co sent russia back to the stone age, and we are talking about russia whom is a major player in the global stage, but crypto? lol, crypto needs liquidity, and where are we gonna get this massive liquidity from? from fiat, right? so how are we gonna get this liquidity from fiat if it's prohibited by international law to do so? I think we have a chance to get this liquidity from the aladin's genie than from any reputable institutional investor.
and let's be honest, if global governments ban crypto, the only people who are gonna use crypto are drug dealers, drug users, tax evaders, war lords, Blackmarket operators and human trafficers. and no investor - be it small, big or whatever - will touch crypto or any technology that has "crypto" in it's name. And I don't know if you want your name to be assosiated with these kind of people :/
Having said that, I still hold and invest in various crypto projects but I'm not delusinal, and people who think crypto is the be all or the end all, need a quick reailty check becaue otherwise, I don't know what to f*****g tell them if they've not learnt a damn thing from the recent events that happened and still going on to this day.
But crypto this crypto that, give me a f*****g break.
For the rest of us, you need to do a risk assesment as @Sols said, and analyze your situation carefully and go from there, but diversify, diversify, diversify, and don't manage all your assets under your own name.
For myself, my most successful investment by far, is the investement that I've done and led me to network with powerful figures specially in MENA and SEA. This kind of networking opens whole different paths for you, paths that you never now existed or would work in real life scenarios, and I'm grateful for these relationships that helped me be who I'm today.
But regarding sanctions and whatnot, having a second passport and residency in "non-allied/neutural" countries helps a lot, Countries that don't take sides and only care about their own benefits, these countries can be a "Foundation" for future investments in most parts of the world.
Of course, this will requires some research and actual work on the ground, but later, you will find that everything will be a smooth sail from there.
So to summarize, second passport, residency in a neutural country (not switzerland, they are far from being "neutral" ) and diversified assets under different names/structures.
For crypto, what can I say! the past couple of weeks showed me that, if these Clown f*****s really want to f**k the crypto market and turn it upside down, they can, they really can, they have all the power to do so, and they can ban and criminalize dealing with crypto and any entity that deals with crypto.
So, forget about exchanges with swift, IBANs, visa/mc...etc. we will have nothing, and you will find the whole market crashing like a row of dominos in a matter of minutes.
Here is the thing, people are f lazy and they want convenience more than anything else, I'm talking about "venmo" or "cash up" experience, pull these things away from them and you will have ghosted platforms.
but but what about"P2P" Exchanges? they can't ban these right? Nope, they absolutely can ban them, they just need to freeze their owner's assets, and these platforms will be closed the next day.
It's f*****g annoying how the US controls the rest of the world with a piece of paper and an ink pen, they didn't even need to move an inch and they fucked the economy of a nuclear powerhouse.
But Crypto? yeah yeah, crypto my a*s, Most people in this forum know that I'm one of the biggest crypto fans out there, but I don't like living in a fantasy world, and we saw how in a couple of days the US and co sent russia back to the stone age, and we are talking about russia whom is a major player in the global stage, but crypto? lol, crypto needs liquidity, and where are we gonna get this massive liquidity from? from fiat, right? so how are we gonna get this liquidity from fiat if it's prohibited by international law to do so? I think we have a chance to get this liquidity from the aladin's genie than from any reputable institutional investor.
and let's be honest, if global governments ban crypto, the only people who are gonna use crypto are drug dealers, drug users, tax evaders, war lords, Blackmarket operators and human trafficers. and no investor - be it small, big or whatever - will touch crypto or any technology that has "crypto" in it's name. And I don't know if you want your name to be assosiated with these kind of people :/
Having said that, I still hold and invest in various crypto projects but I'm not delusinal, and people who think crypto is the be all or the end all, need a quick reailty check becaue otherwise, I don't know what to f*****g tell them if they've not learnt a damn thing from the recent events that happened and still going on to this day.
But crypto this crypto that, give me a f*****g break.
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That is way too doomish for my liking regarding crypto as a whole but for some centralized "crypto projects" this is accurate.
The price of bitcoin in russian rubles or the UAH went up massively and are at ath in its currencies and it is the only easy way to send money in or out of Russia / Ukraine unless you have special arrangement at the moment.
That "upside down" was a liquidity event. The price just went down because the market got s**t scared of QT and rumors in January went wild of the fed going to maybe even up to 1% in march lol and proposing numerous hikes thru the year of 2022.
But China started to ease again and the fed will soon follow as well. They still try to talk tough and try to convince everyone to fight inflation exactly this time right now (they could have done so for years already), whereas we all know they need and want inflation to manage their skyhigh debt and avoid widespread revolt and tax default.
People in USA who can actually save (and do not live on 10 credit cards) save in the stock market and need ultra low rates. Stock market in the USA is of even more importance than in China (where it is RE).
Ok crypto is not for me. Lets keep to topic plz.
Out of interest after seeing what happened to Russia I have no intention of ever investing in anything Chinese from outside China. We already saw stocks de-listed in US for China Telecom etc. The US regime will at some point go nuts on China to stop it becoming officially the worlds biggest economy so I see lies, war, propaganda followed by sanctions coming to China from the US and its allies. I would only invest in China via Chinese domestic financial institutions in HK or mainland China. So this remains an option.
I am currently watching how China handles the pressure from US to try and divide it from its neighbor Russia. If China withstands the US pressure and continues to trade with Russia and maintain strong ties then I have a new option (HK domestic banks) where to park some liquid funds if accounting opening for me is permitted.
Out of interest after seeing what happened to Russia I have no intention of ever investing in anything Chinese from outside China. We already saw stocks de-listed in US for China Telecom etc. The US regime will at some point go nuts on China to stop it becoming officially the worlds biggest economy so I see lies, war, propaganda followed by sanctions coming to China from the US and its allies. I would only invest in China via Chinese domestic financial institutions in HK or mainland China. So this remains an option.
I am currently watching how China handles the pressure from US to try and divide it from its neighbor Russia. If China withstands the US pressure and continues to trade with Russia and maintain strong ties then I have a new option (HK domestic banks) where to park some liquid funds if accounting opening for me is permitted.
Yes indeed. That is a worrying trend and I see that coming like that as well.
How do you think you tackle the passport issue under which you will bank there?
I used to bank in HK, but I could not sleep so well bc of my "unfriendly" passport.
I assume it would be best to have even non-carribean one and of course a western one.
Thats a good question. I don't have an answer yet for that.
I think a western one would be more problematic as China will reciprocate sanctions against those western countries that have sanctions on. You wouldn't want to have a US or UK passport and hope to continue banking in China after those countries sanction China.
Even Hang Seng, the only remaining noteworthy HK domestic bank, does not open accounts for Westerners who do not have any local ties.
The others are either small savings banks, mainland China banks or some foreign owned private banks (SG, AU or other Western aligned banks). With the exception of the latter none will be willing to serve you.
So, forget that option - times have changed. And rest assured that China will not give in to Western demands.
Indeed, and that is valid for all Western passports and the other nations who directly align with the West.
Even a Singaporean will not get a HK bank account if he does not have family ties to HK or mainland China (most have, of course).
But that is already ongoing for about two years. All started with the second big protest wave in 2019 which was too much of a sign of Western influence for the central Chinese government.
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Yes agreed. Maybe EU passports are equally bad over time there as I see them going along with USA sanctions.
Once could try to get residency in HK, once (or if?) they relax their restrictions there.
Chinese banks in russia are currently the solution to receive foreign wires in russia
In theory an option, in practice not. The residence-by-investment scheme is dead (for Westerners) since the start of the protests in 2019.
Time of cherry picking is over: Westerners need to learn that the world has gotten a lot smaller for them.
I am exploring the options properly. I know a thing or two that you may not be aware of. Will let you know in due course.
HSBC is the majority share holder of Hang Seng, so I wouldn't call them domestic, unless HSBC is also considered domestic.
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