Cashing out crypto and then?

[cryptofriendly]

I'd like to gather some ideas about where to put the money in after selling out in the next BTC run.

Currently, I got around 300K in my paper wallet (90% BTC 10% ETH). Beside of that, I got 100K which I use selling daily puts on BTC.
I had 1280 BTC when MtGox went down and made it all disappear, but yeah, what I got now is total 400K USD, and no 60 millions.
I still keep that YUBIKEY with MtGox printed on it which was used to login to MTGox though, maybe I can sell it as a collector item someday.

Anyway, the paper wallet is not creating any yield, the puts are making between 10-90% APY (depends on the day),
which may average 30-60% yearly, especially as it all gets reinvested.

I am pretty satisfied with the current allocation, holding 75% in BTC (and a little ETH) and creating cash yield with the 25%.

My original plan was to exit the market in 2025, and invest the money in a few apartments in Ukraine,
and AIRBNB them (it was the best AIRBNB yield few years back, about 30% ROI yearly). Then the war came,
and I thought to buy real estate in Georgia instead. Then the Russians came, and the market changed and Georgia became uninteresting.
Montenegro was next, but the prices are running away, and it's getting closer to join the Bolshevik EU.

Now, I got no clear idea. Condos in Thailand just lose value and short term AIRBNB is prohibited, land can't be bought as foreigner.
Pretty much the same for VN, Laos and Cambodia, there are some ways to do it, but I don't want to bet all my money on a lease contract.

I stopped investing in stocks after COVID wiped out my margin and turned 120K into 12K. It also doesn't follow fundamentals,
but is highly manipulated. I would also prefer something that isn't tracked or can be connected to me by others.

I thought about investing in a real estate note fund in the US which offers 12% yield, but that 12% are not enough in the current inflationary
environment.

So, lets brainstorm, what could be a good investment at the end of 2025? I expect having a total of around 900K then (worst case)
I don't want to hold again through the bear market.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

This could be a good start: The Johnny Doe IBKR portfolio

 

[wellington]

Right now the most interesting tradfi play outside of chips and tech imo is coal (Europe) nickel and carbon eua

 

[VESTANON]

Do look into Property/resort style purchases in the following jurisdiction

1.Belize: Low entry barriers and relatively low tax on vacant lots and property dev.

2. Grenada: Safe, stable lowkey and viable inbound traffic all year round.

3.Antigua And barbuda: if you intend to look at a yatching club,scuba diving outfits,water sports.

4.StKitts And Nevis: would be a plus all around, not without mentioning its citizenship by donation/investment perks.

AirBnB style, tourist cabins with self catering amenities across the above indicated jurisdictions would be ideal.

 

[void]

I'd like to gather some ideas about where to put the money in after selling out in the next BTC run.

in my opinion if you strongly believe in the never ending bitcoin cycle the real question is how to lock yourself in profit without even selling your BTC - more and more people are asking me about this and I don't have a good answer

if you really want to close your position and hope for the return of a better opportunity to open it again then I would suggest to buy huge chunks of uncultivated land in "desirable" location which is still reasonably priced - 50+ acres in Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, DR might be a good almost zero maintenance low risk bet which appreciates quickly not mentioning if you would invest into "infrastructure" and cultivation (i.e. hiring somebody with a bulldozer)

 

[meze99]

In the Caribbean you are more likely to loose money than earn income from real estate since condo fees and insurance fees are crazy there (and don't forget hurricanes that can wipe out entire islands - happened recently to Barbuda). Stamp duty/title transfer/license fees and real estate agents comission for selling also can easily take 15-25% of the value and you can wait for years to sell your property there if something goes wrong.
Short term rent may bring you more income than long term only if you live nearby and willing to manage everything yourself.
Greed/high yield chase is probably not a good idea in the long term (pump and dump happens, as well as corporate/sovereign debt defaults).
Consider spending the money you earned to see the world/learn and experience something new rather than saving them for some day in the future that may never come (accidents and serious illnesses happen as well). It may be the best investment you can make.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Consider spending the money you earned to see the world/learn and experience something new rather than saving them for some day in the future that may never come (accidents and serious illnesses happen as well). It may be the best investment you can make.

Even better is to have an investment portfolio that can fund all this, while building debt so that when you die your net worth is below zero.

 

[manukahoney]

I was told there is some opportunities for property investors in Bali (25%+), however the region is already heavily under Russian influence and yields will probably be fall back to 10% give or take. Plus all the risks.

Dubai offers 6-9% on long-term rentals plus you might benefit from the market growth. You can leverage it using post-handout payments plans. Again, it has been crazy few years there and there is no warranty the market will not correct.

It seems you are already doing well, so why just not keep doing it?

 

[wellington]

I know someone with a large oceanfront villa in Bali for sale, cheap, he's elderly, only issue is you'd need to evict his ex wife and her family lol

 

[cryptofriendly]

This could be a good start: The Johnny Doe IBKR portfolio

Great thread and investment advice, but I really don't want to touch stocks/etfs anymore.
Did it for 20 years, and I am really tired of that, especially after the last wipeout of my portfolio (at IBKR too, lol)

Right now the most interesting tradfi play outside of chips and tech imo is coal (Europe) nickel and carbon eua

I was invested in the KBR Carbon ETF before getting liquidated, but I prefer no stocks/etfs anymore. Realestate seemed safer, but location is problem.

Do look into Property/resort style purchases in the following jurisdiction

1.Belize: Low entry barriers and relatively low tax on vacant lots and property dev.

2. Grenada: Safe, stable lowkey and viable inbound traffic all year round.

3.Antigua And barbuda: if you intend to look at a yatching club,scuba diving outfits,water sports.

4.StKitts And Nevis: would be a plus all around, not without mentioning its citizenship by donation/investment perks.

AirBnB style, tourist cabins with self catering amenities across the above indicated jurisdictions would be ideal.

I have lived in Asia for the last 30 years, and I was too busy with the girls in my Spanish class at university to study much.
Nicaragua was on my radar, especially little Corn Island, but politically it's a little too much risk to put all my wealth into.
That places you mentioned always seemed out of my budget, I can't afford to make mistakes, but one always does when getting to a place first time.
I'd prefer somewhere around Asia or Europe, I guess I should compare the yields on AirDNA again when the time comes.

in my opinion if you strongly believe in the never ending bitcoin cycle the real question is how to lock yourself in profit without even selling your BTC - more and more people are asking me about this and I don't have a good answer

if you really want to close your position and hope for the return of a better opportunity to open it again then I would suggest to buy huge chunks of uncultivated land in "desirable" location which is still reasonably priced - 50+ acres in Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, DR might be a good almost zero maintenance low risk bet which appreciates quickly not mentioning if you would invest into "infrastructure" and cultivation (i.e. hiring somebody with a bulldozer)

I got already a few ha farmland in Cambodia, not far from a tourist town. Almost bought a plot in Sihanoukville, where now that Chinese skyscrapers stand and landprices exploded (and fell back down).
Unfortunately bets like that don't produce income in the meantime, and it might take a while.

In the Caribbean you are more likely to loose money than earn income from real estate since condo fees and insurance fees are crazy there (and don't forget hurricanes that can wipe out entire islands - happened recently to Barbuda). Stamp duty/title transfer/license fees and real estate agents comission for selling also can easily take 15-25% of the value and you can wait for years to sell your property there if something goes wrong.
Short term rent may bring you more income than long term only if you live nearby and willing to manage everything yourself.
Greed/high yield chase is probably not a good idea in the long term (pump and dump happens, as well as corporate/sovereign debt defaults).
Consider spending the money you earned to see the world/learn and experience something new rather than saving them for some day in the future that may never come (accidents and serious illnesses happen as well). It may be the best investment you can make.

Seeing the world is what I am doing for 29 years, I left my country when I was 20, and have traveled and lived in Asia since then (and Europe before 20).
Traveling since COVID is a shadow of the former, and it's not as much fun as before. It was always about adventure for me, finding magical places by chance,
and seeing local life and a few travellers, but there is no adventure with google maps, ride apps, agoda and your fellow travellers being on their smartphone
instead of sharing some amazing places. Instagram and youtubers destroyed every place, and Joe and Karen are now traveling to drink coffee at Starbucks,
even in little towns. I don't try to find happiness outside anymore, I found it inside myself. Still creating A.I. models and stuff, but I am actually tired of all that
and ready to be a monk. Just don't want that money to become worthless through inflation if I change my mind.

I was told there is some opportunities for property investors in Bali (25%+), however the region is already heavily under Russian influence and yields will probably be fall back to 10% give or take. Plus all the risks.

Dubai offers 6-9% on long-term rentals plus you might benefit from the market growth. You can leverage it using post-handout payments plans. Again, it has been crazy few years there and there is no warranty the market will not correct.

It seems you are already doing well, so why just not keep doing it?

Selling puts only works as long as BTC rises, stays the same or falls a little, as I don't mind getting allocated BTC if it falls 1%. But it's not a good strategy in a bearmarket, as doing what I am doing now, I'd get some BTC allocated 1% lower than the ATH and would be stuck with it.

It looks like PPR's 12% fund (real estate note investing) is the best I can get as a passive investment now, next is 9.25% yearly on 3 years term deposit in a SEA bank.

AIRBNB wise I'll wait and see next year, the economy is not the best right now all around the world (China, Europe, etc), so it's better to reassess it again when the time comes.
Japan was great for AIRBNB before they threw the regulations at the hosts and killed the market. But maybe its still not so bad market, tourism is increasing and supply is low.
And my Japanese is pretty good.

Currently, that list seems really strange for me, especially Fairbanks, USA having a yield of 50%???? Can't trust that.
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/...bnb-cities-in-the-world-1161004/?singlepage=1

in my opinion if you strongly believe in the never ending bitcoin cycle the real question is how to lock yourself in profit without even selling your BTC - more and more people are asking me about this and I don't have a good answer

One way would be to take a loan in USDT or USD on it when its reaching the new ATH, you'd get up to 80-90% of the value, and you could keep increasing the loan while BTC is rising until it drops.
Theoretically, you'd be able to get liquidated at 10% lower than ATH doing that, and removing the erroneous part of timing the market, preventing holding while it drops and enters the next 4 years of bear.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Realestate seemed safer, but location is problem.

Real estate can go up and down as much as stocks and everything else.

the next 4 years of bear.

as you already know the future, just sell btc and buy puts when the time comes.

 

[aidenaiden]

One way would be to take a loan in USDT or USD on it when its reaching the new ATH, you'd get up to 80-90% of the value, and you could keep increasing the loan while BTC is rising until it drops.
Theoretically, you'd be able to get liquidated at 10% lower than ATH doing that, and removing the erroneous part of timing the market, preventing holding while it drops and enters the next 4 years of bear.

Not sure I get the reasoning behind this? If BTC goes all the way up to 100k, you take out a loan at 90k USD. BTC drops by 10% and you're liquidated and you risk losing on the upside if BTC shoots above by 100k. Huge market swings will wipe you out and +20/-20% moves are not unheard of in crypto

 

[cryptofriendly]

Real estate can go up and down as much as stocks and everything else.

as you already know the future, just sell btc and buy puts when the time comes.

Sure, but usually real estate doesn't drop 90%. And it has the advantage, that there aren't any reporting and SOF issues if located in a good location.
Last but not least, I can sleep and live in that real estate - even if the price drops, not just watch numbers on my screen like with stocks.

Unfortunately I don't know the future, so I don't dare to take the risk of buying puts.
Well, maybe I gonna do it with a small amount. The cycles have been consistent until now.
History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.

 

[void]

Unfortunately I don't know the future, so I don't dare to take the risk of buying puts.
Well, maybe I gonna do it with a small amount. The cycles have been consistent until now.
History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.

so you're not sure enough to buy puts but enough to sell your BTC and buy the worse assets like real estate or even securities? no offense but this doesn't seem very consistent

 

[cryptofriendly]

Not sure I get the reasoning behind this? If BTC goes all the way up to 100k, you take out a loan at 90k USD. BTC drops by 10% and you're liquidated and you risk losing on the upside if BTC shoots above by 100k. Huge market swings will wipe you out and +20/-20% moves are not unheard of in crypto

How do you decide when to sell? Do you think you can time the ATH and be on your computer to sell in that very moment?

The options are:

If you sell outright, you are guaranteed to miss on any upside.

Bitcoin goes higher - you get no upside.
Bitcoin goes lower - you can't lose more.

If you take out a loan, you get 90% of the amount. If it continues to rise, you can take out more loan.

Bitcoin goes higher - you take out more loan, you make more money as long as it doesn't drop so much that you get liquidated.
Bitcoin goes lower - you can't lose more.

Which scenario is better?

Let's say you have one BTC.
You sell at 100K. It goes to 150K.
Result: 100K

vs.

You take a loan at 100K. It goes down. Your BTC gets liquidated.
Result: 90K

You take a loan at 100K. It goes to 150K. You take a loan again. It drops and liquidates your 1 BTC.
Result: 135K

I can't time the market. But I think the loan strategy has more upside than selling outright. You take out the loan when you'd normally sell or shortly before.

so you're not sure enough to buy puts but enough to sell your BTC and buy the worse assets like real estate or even securities? no offense but this doesn't seem very consistent

I've been buying BTC since 2011. Got all of them them stolen by MTGox then, bought in again, spent some on darknet, etc.
I saw 4 bear markets in all that time, and I didn't sell.
Of course I'll try selling (well, taking out a loan) before the next one. Not doing so would be repeating the same mistake.
I might buy some puts with some of the realized gains. But I think a break from crypto would do me good.

 

[Jerry1911]

I was invested in the KBR Carbon ETF before getting liquidated

You fell for a scam plain and simple.

Real estate can go up and down as much as stocks and everything else.

This

 

[aidenaiden]

How do you decide when to sell? Do you think you can time the ATH and be on your computer to sell in that very moment?

The options are:

If you sell outright, you are guaranteed to miss on any upside.

Bitcoin goes higher - you get no upside.
Bitcoin goes lower - you can't lose more.

If you take out a loan, you get 90% of the amount. If it continues to rise, you can take out more loan.

Bitcoin goes higher - you take out more loan, you make more money as long as it doesn't drop so much that you get liquidated.
Bitcoin goes lower - you can't lose more.

Which scenario is better?

Let's say you have one BTC.
You sell at 100K. It goes to 150K.
Result: 100K

vs.

You take a loan at 100K. It goes down. Your BTC gets liquidated.
Result: 90K

You take a loan at 100K. It goes to 150K. You take a loan again. It drops and liquidates your 1 BTC.
Result: 135K

I can't time the market. But I think the loan strategy has more upside than selling outright. You take out the loan when you'd normally sell or shortly before.


I've been buying BTC since 2011. Got all of them them stolen by MTGox then, bought in again, spent some on darknet, etc.
I saw 4 bear markets in all that time, and I didn't sell.
Of course I'll try selling (well, taking out a loan) before the next one. Not doing so would be repeating the same mistake.
I might buy some puts with some of the realized gains. But I think a break from crypto would do me good.

You're still missing the point I brought.
BTC goes to 100k, you borrow 90k; it drops to 80k, you secure 90k and that's it. If BTC shoots the next day to 150, 200K, you're on sidelines. Your strategy just assumes there are no major swings in the market.

 

[void]

Of course I'll try selling (well, taking out a loan) before the next one.

this would only make sense if it's a loan without margin call and the risk of the lender (or opposite opinion) is priced in the interest rate - otherwise you would get liquidated and screwed (in the scenario of BTC price going down which you're expecting)

btw I totally get what you're up to but selling BTC is a silly idea and I honestly interested in the ways of extracting value without selling

 

[wellington]

No need to sell bitcoin in a world where everything can be printed/minted/mass created it’s the one asset that can not.

 

[manukahoney]

No need to sell bitcoin in a world where everything can be printed/minted/mass created it’s the one asset that can not.

Yet they can harass/sue core developers to stop development and big pools to manipulate and censor. BTC is not bulletproof either.