I don't think that banning BTC in the whole world is even possible. Look at how much banks in dozens of countries are on black or grey list due to money laundering etc. for dozens of years. Much more pragmatic step is an attempt to force all banks and payment processor to follow KYC/AML rules and take own piece thanks to taxes. Even if all governments managed to ban crypto for all banks, there are a lot of payment systems like Mpesa in Africa, Alipay/Wechat in China etc. How you would block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?You got a lot of faith in that governments i.e US will not choose to ban their banks from dealing with crypto companies or individuals and hence in effect create a global banking ban. For me the risk was too great and I sold BTC at circa $13,000 some years ago as I posted on here. I think if BTC can maintain purchasing power after any potential banking ban then it is credible. If it relies upon being able to be easily converted to fiat then it is not credible no matter how enthusiastic one is about BTC.
Exactly, they were sold with a discount and the demand was much higher than the available seized amount. Similarly, Bulgaria sold gradually their seized bitcoin in auctions and many other national authorities doing the sameFBI does not hoard coins. The coins seized from internet entrepreneurs such as Ross Ulbricht, were auctioned a long time ago.
I agree that we will see CBDC but don't understand why you think they could threaten to BTC. CBDC will be highly inflated coins by their nature to keep the status quo with increasing central bank balance sheets
We've already seen one wave of panic; one must really be shitting one's pants to sell at 4000 USD. Other explanations: 1) Forced liquidation of a leveraged position by an exchange, 2) Fat fingers. So, my thinking is: If there is a next wave, it won't go as low, because the weakest hands & fattest fingers have already been shaken out.i expect the price to tank heavily when the global market crash again soon, thinking 3 digits btc ... i dont think we have seen real pain yet.
There weren't waves of bankrupties after the previous halvings, so why now? If a miner is already living from hand to mouth, they won't have many coins to sell. Those who can afford to stash coins, are probably in a good financial position.The next halving in may is likely going to put even more downside pressure on the price as a lot of miners will go bankrupt and will be forced to sell their stash of btc.
Even if all governments managed to ban crypto for all banks, there are a lot of payment systems like Mpesa in Africa, Alipay/Wechat in China etc. How you would block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?
When do you think US will stop being at the top of the military hierarchy and subsequently financial hierarchy?So you asked the below question and I responded to it with "You wouldn't need to". Do you find any middlemen companies openly willing to break US sanctions on Iran anywhere on planet earth? Same logic applies as no Mpesa or Alipay CEO of these "middlemen systems" wants to end up fined, business closed down or put in jail. They will implement draconian measures. It won't stop a determined person as nothing will but the punishment dished out if caught will serve as a hindrance.
Yes, if the price falls, there will be more selling pressure from the miners. If it rises; less pressure. In this way, the up/downtrends in bitcoin feed itself. In my opinion, the situation with hardware is the same as it has always been: New mining rigs drive out the old rigs. (CPU < GPU < ASIC). Somebody is always close to quitting. At that point, they have only few coins left and hence don't have a huge effect on the market price....most miners running very old hardware even at very cheap electricity won't be able to compete with newer hardware after the halving and if the price tanked for some time many will have to sell more to stay affloat.
When do you think US will stop being at the top of the military hierarchy and subsequently financial hierarchy?
If not US, who is at the top of dominance hierarchy then?They stopped being the top military hierarchy after WW2. They lost every war since from Vietnam to the 18 year war in Afghanistan where the Taliban whipped their ass and forced them to do a peace deal recently. Who would think the so called greatest military in the world could not beat a bunch of guys running round in headscarfs, sandals with AK47 and RPG7's. Thats all you need to know about US power in modern warfare. Modern warfare is not big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.
US power is projected financially via using the dollar as a weapon. It's the accepted international currency of trade and the US has used it to wage economic war on i.e Turkey etc. Their dominance won't last for ever. Once a suitable alternative is found to the dollar they will end being top of the financial hierarchy. Any alternative global currency used in international trade, foreign reserves and settlement that is outside US control will be end of US as number one financially. They will not be able to use financial sanctions as a weapon, maintain the unfair advantage they have over being able to print dollars or dominate international trade. Unfortunately we are decades away from that point. Also US will topple any government or person by any means who tries to achieve this result as they have to maintain their dominant position that benefits them at ANY cost to human life.
P.S Bitcoin is not the game changer.
i think that example does not fit us army perfectly and probably apply to israel army that been known to hide behind weapons and fear to die . historically the us army is somehow brave and fight in battles , also many who join it are immigrants who desperately wish to get us passport . taliban members just hide in caves they didn't gave real good fight . i think us don't have victory of recent wars because their administration lacking purpose.Modern warfare is not big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.
The only reason US gets to wage economic war is because they have the military advantage over other countries.
Money is worthless if you don't have power to protect it.
1. US is an island, away from other countries. One of the biggest military advantage.
2. They control majority of information distribution in the world (TV, movies, songs, apps, internet). They shape identities of people who consume these media. Look at how middle east changed in last 10 years. Why do you think women started to drive in UAE?
3. Their lands are new. Unlike Asia or Eu or Middle east. More self sustaining compared to other continents. That's why they grew faster than other countries in last 100 years.
4. Not to mention the tech and size of military budget. US attracts the best minds from the world with $.
Even if the average US soldier or person is an utter idiot, it doesn't matter. Even if they lose wars to people who fight with sandals, it doesn't matter. They can hurt other countries. That's leverage in negotiation. That's what matters.
Correct me if I'm wrong.