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@nomad999 - there are no fundamentals to what you are describing - you are describing speculation - there is no wealth underpinning it.

I have been in crypto since 2013 and have timed entries in and out at peaks and lows very well, because I know what is going on - wild speculative bubbles with little if anything backing them.

The backing of a currency is essentially the goods and services people will exchange for them. As the goods and services a currency is traded against change, so do the prices. If you are holding money it means someone, somewhere has produced real wealth. Currency is just a fascia for this wealth. In the case of Bitcoin, people produce wealth (do work) and then buy Bitcoin. The backing of Bitcoin is that wealth. But they are not buying Bitcoin to use as currency. They are buying it in the hopes they can sell it higher. That is not a currency. If it was a physical item, you could call it a commodity. But it is not.

In the case of Bitcoin it has an annual real economy of about $10 billion - that is people using it as a currency, for exchange, not speculation. As a currency, every single dollar above that is pure 100% speculation. It has no economic fundamentals. As of writing that means Bitcoin is 1.5% a currency and 98.5% speculation. And most of the people using BTC as currency are doing so in the black and grey economies or they are full-time traders who don't have fiat.

Further, Bitcoin is fundamentally unusable as a currency. There are examples of private money in the 19th century US that were deflationary. That is, the prices of goods and services went down against them. Sounds good to economically illiterate people. But when a currency deflates at about 10%, then most businesses with profits margins of no more than 10% have no reason to do any work. You cannot price things in a considerably inflationary of deflationary currency. With 10% inflation and deflation by the time a business has produced a good or service all the profit may be eaten up. In either case the economy grinds to a whimper. Economies need stable means of exchange. Currencies cannot have deflation or inflation over about 5% and even that is bad. A fair currency would be one that never inflates or deflates in relation to the economy. A crypto could be made like this, but it has no ponzi, so there is not interest.

Bitcoinists (who are economically illiterate) like to criticise fiat currency for transferring wealth to bankers. They are right in this. But Bitcoin transfers wealth to early adopters. There isn't a huge difference. In both cases purchasing power is redistributed to the privileged, rather than those who are economically productive - the most fair way. Gold bugs are exactly the same and they even criticise Bitcoin with a criticism that is true for gold. Bitcoinists want a huge speculative bubble to be blown on the back of Bitcoin's minuscule currency use. While gold bugs want a huge speculative bubble to be blown up on the back of gold's fundamental economic value. They want central banks to buy gold up 5-10X, so they can make huge gains, not through the result of economic output, but via sitting on an asset. It's wealth transfer far beyond 3% inflation.

Bitcoin can never be used as currency, ever, because it's deflationary, currently insanely deflationary. If you think it's so good - use it as a currency.

There are those who refer to Bitcoin's properties, such as being hard to control, hard to counterfeit, easy to transact. These are positive attributes. However, as mentioned there is only about $10 billion / year taking advantage of them. This will not change much, as Bitcoin is not currency, a commodity, a security or any form of wealth. It's something used for primarily black/grey purposes, skirting currency controls and gambling (primarily by people who are wildly economically literate). There are no more fundamentals than the USD ultimately has.

All the money anyone makes from holding Bitcoin is from someone, somewhere producing wealth. If I put in $10,000 and it's now $100,000. It's because someone performed $90,000 of economic activity and by virtue of wild gambling it ended up being redistributed to me. No one who wants a fair economy would be championing it as some sort of great liberator of the people. I will be using it, as I did in Dec 2013 and Dec 2017, by dumping all my coins on the economically illiterate when the ponzi has reached its zenith.

As an anecdote. Two of my friends had bought in about February 2013, in the range of $40-100. I remember one day, one friend who had made about $100,000 on a rise to $260 was cheering,

"Bitcoin! Bitcoin guys! It's going to the moon! We're going to end the state in three years."

The next morning it had kerplunked and he was in the red. When I called him to ask what happened he was shell-shocked, speaking like a baby,

"I don't know, 4br. I don't know."

Given the content and tone of your posts, this will be you sometime this year.

To the user on institutional money. This is a good point. But I can give you an anecdote. I bought ETHE (Ethereum Greyscale ETN) in March 2020 at about $50. One or two months later it was at $250. A 5X gain, while the spot market was only 2X. One share in ETHE was worth 0.1 ETH. So I bought at $500 and it was now $2,500. While the spot market was only at $250. So, seeing the ponzi had run its course for now I pulled my ripcord with a market sell, not realising the books were ultra thin and kerplunked the price down about $30. The market then crashed back down to about $50 again and is still not back to the levels I sold at.

ETHE has been buying up ETH like crazy. So there is nothing necessarily making institutional retardant. Given the prices they have been buying in, the mentioned taxable events are as likely to be tax write-offs.

With all this said, I am excited for the potential developments in crypto, but right now 90% of the attention is economic illiterates salivating over ponzi gains, rather than trying to attach crypto to real wealth, which is the only way it could ever have any value.

Two tips for projects that could do that: MYST (decentralised VPN), Presearch (decentralised search engine). I'm 12X on the former and it's my best pick for a 100X.
 
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@4br Very well written thu&¤#. I am glad there is people that actually understand this all.

I think the bitcoin shills will know you are speaking the truth but are in that group of people who want to make money for doing nothing and of other peoples hard work. Hence they will attack you as a "non-believer" a "fool" or "you don't understand bitcoin" or "this time its different" or "we are just getting started" or "bitcoin is cheap at $34,000" or "you don't know what your talking about" ....lol.
 
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@4br - others have beaten me to it, but nonetheless, sincere thanks for the well-written postthu&¤# ... in my case, like I said, I saw a good technical formation that paid off (they may or may not, period), like in other many a number of securities/assets/stocks/etc that have paid many multiples if you were brave and bought during the March hysteria. Other than that, and congratulating in advance the plethora of new billionaires that will be walking the streets very soon (by the looks of it), nothing further to report.
 
@nomad999 - there are no fundamentals to what you are describing - you are describing speculation - there is no wealth underpinning it.

I have been in crypto since 2013 and have timed entries in and out at peaks and lows very well, because I know what is going on - wild speculative bubbles with little if anything backing them.

The backing of a currency is essentially the goods and services people will exchange for them. As the goods and services a currency is traded against change, so do the prices. If you are holding money it means someone, somewhere has produced real wealth. Currency is just a fascia for this wealth. In the case of Bitcoin, people produce wealth (do work) and then buy Bitcoin. The backing of Bitcoin is that wealth. But they are not buying Bitcoin to use as currency. They are buying it in the hopes they can sell it higher. That is not a currency. If it was a physical item, you could call it a commodity. But it is not.

In the case of Bitcoin it has an annual real economy of about $10 billion - that is people using it as a currency, for exchange, not speculation. As a currency, every single dollar above that is pure 100% speculation. It has no economic fundamentals. As of writing that means Bitcoin is 1.5% a currency and 98.5% speculation. And most of the people using BTC as currency are doing so in the black and grey economies or they are full-time traders who don't have fiat.

Further, Bitcoin is fundamentally unusable as a currency. There are examples of private money in the 19th century US that were deflationary. That is, the prices of goods and services went down against them. Sounds good to economically illiterate people. But when a currency deflates at about 10%, then most businesses with profits margins of no more than 10% have no reason to do any work. You cannot price things in a considerably inflationary of deflationary currency. With 10% inflation and deflation by the time a business has produced a good or service all the profit may be eaten up. In either case the economy grinds to a whimper. Economies need stable means of exchange. Currencies cannot have deflation or inflation over about 5% and even that is bad. A fair currency would be one that never inflates or deflates in relation to the economy. A crypto could be made like this, but it has no ponzi, so there is not interest.

Bitcoinists (who are economically illiterate) like to criticise fiat currency for transferring wealth to bankers. They are right in this. But Bitcoin transfers wealth to early adopters. There isn't a huge difference. In both cases purchasing power is redistributed to the privileged, rather than those who are economically productive - the most fair way. Gold bugs are exactly the same and they even criticise Bitcoin with a criticism that is true for gold. Bitcoinists want a huge speculative bubble to be blown on the back of Bitcoin's minuscule currency use. While gold bugs want a huge speculative bubble to be blown up on the back of gold's fundamental economic value. They want central banks to buy gold up 5-10X, so they can make huge gains, not through the result of economic output, but via sitting on an asset. It's wealth transfer far beyond 3% inflation.

Bitcoin can never be used as currency, ever, because it's deflationary, currently insanely deflationary. If you think it's so good - use it as a currency.

There are those who refer to Bitcoin's properties, such as being hard to control, hard to counterfeit, easy to transact. These are positive attributes. However, as mentioned there is only about $10 billion / year taking advantage of them. This will not change much, as Bitcoin is not currency, a commodity, a security or any form of wealth. It's something used for primarily black/grey purposes, skirting currency controls and gambling (primarily by people who are wildly economically literate). There are no more fundamentals than the USD ultimately has.

All the money anyone makes from holding Bitcoin is from someone, somewhere producing wealth. If I put in $10,000 and it's now $100,000. It's because someone performed $90,000 of economic activity and by virtue of wild gambling it ended up being redistributed to me. No one who wants a fair economy would be championing it as some sort of great liberator of the people. I will be using it, as I did in Dec 2013 and Dec 2017, by dumping all my coins on the economically illiterate when the ponzi has reached its zenith.

As an anecdote. Two of my friends had bought in about February 2013, in the range of $40-100. I remember one day, one friend who had made about $100,000 on a rise to $260 was cheering,

"Bitcoin! Bitcoin guys! It's going to the moon! We're going to end the state in three years."

The next morning it had kerplunked and he was in the red. When I called him to ask what happened he was shell-shocked, speaking like a baby,

"I don't know, 4br. I don't know."

Given the content and tone of your posts, this will be you sometime this year.

To the user on institutional money. This is a good point. But I can give you an anecdote. I bought ETHE (Ethereum Greyscale ETN) in March 2020 at about $50. One or two months later it was at $250. A 5X gain, while the spot market was only 2X. One share in ETHE was worth 0.1 ETH. So I bought at $500 and it was now $2,500. While the spot market was only at $250. So, seeing the ponzi had run its course for now I pulled my ripcord with a market sell, not realising the books were ultra thin and kerplunked the price down about $30. The market then crashed back down to about $50 again and is still not back to the levels I sold at.

ETHE has been buying up ETH like crazy. So there is nothing necessarily making institutional retardant. Given the prices they have been buying in, the mentioned taxable events are as likely to be tax write-offs.

With all this said, I am excited for the potential developments in crypto, but right now 90% of the attention is economic illiterates salivating over ponzi gains, rather than trying to attach crypto to real wealth, which is the only way it could ever have any value.

Two tips for projects that could do that: MYST (decentralised VPN), Presearch (decentralised search engine). I'm 12X on the former and it's my best pick for a 100X.

just to be clear, when I say fundamentals I refer to the technology and how bitcoin actually works, hence there is little room for arguing over the facts. I really don't understand how we can not all agree there ... what would you call fundamentals I am curious ?

obviously how bitcoin will be used at the end or if it will even survive long term is pure speculation, so is the current price or any future price prediction which are totally open for debate.

you are completely right in bitcoin not being a good medium for a currency, while it has some properties of a currency it makes for a very shity version of one, as a reminder the cost for a transaction fluctuate between 5-10$ doubled with a 10mn settlement at best. this could never be used for groceries unless in time of war or apocalypse assuming internet is still working then ...
didn't I agree to that several times already on this forum ? why do you guys keep coming up with this ? like 2/3 of your post imply I defend the opposite view of what I think and said, what is wrong with you ?

when did I say bitcoin will liberate the world and create a little utopia ? seriously ? I feel like talking to a wall that is reacting to an imaginary version of what I say rather than what I am actually saying ... are you for real ?

btw you fail to mention the economic activity of the central banks all around the world who printed trillions of wealth at a whim and are going to keep doing so until their ultimatele collapse ...

a ponzi scheme doesn't work that way, you don't get more bitcoin by being an early adopter which is what it would do if it was a ponzi scheme.
the value of a bitcoin do increase as the bitcoin supply diminishes and more adoption happens, but if you want to benefit from that value you have to sell your bitcoin. you absolutely do get rewarded for being an early adopter and believing in the fundamentals of the technology. the longer you hold the more value you get, nobody knows what the future hold and so you are taking risks and are rewarded for it. easier said than done, very few have held from the early days until now ...

the fundamentals of bitcoin is that the system ultimately rely on energy, aka a hashrate of over 140M TH/s of computer power running on electricity, this is the link to the physical world and why people think it has intrinsic value at its core.
The bitcoin network will literally never cease to exist as long as it is profitable to run the network, and the difficulty adjustment mechanism of the algorithm is there to make sure of it.

the ultimate difference with USD is the fix monetary policy associated to it and the fact that the governance of this policy is decentralized and very difficult to influence. everyone who are running the network have the same incentive.

I'll repeat the fundamentals that define the value of bitcoin, again! : decentralized, borderless, peer to peer, censorship resistant, trustless.
I dare any of you to argue against that with any reasonable arguments.

will the price keep increasing for a long time ? maybe or maybe not who knows!
I do believe it will and so I am in it for the long run.

PS> sorry for the wall of text ...
 
just to be clear, when I say fundamentals I refer to the technology and how bitcoin actually works, hence there is little room for arguing over the facts. I really don't understand how we can not all agree there ... what would you call fundamentals I am curious ?

obviously how bitcoin will be used at the end or if it will even survive long term is pure speculation, so is the current price or any future price prediction which are totally open for debate.

you are completely right in bitcoin not being a good medium for a currency, while it has some properties of a currency it makes for a very shity version of one, as a reminder the cost for a transaction fluctuate between 5-10$ doubled with a 10mn settlement at best. this could never be used for groceries unless in time of war or apocalypse assuming internet is still working then ...
didn't I agree to that several times already on this forum ? why do you guys keep coming up with this ? like 2/3 of your post imply I defend the opposite view of what I think and said, what is wrong with you ?

when did I say bitcoin will liberate the world and create a little utopia ? seriously ? I feel like talking to a wall that is reacting to an imaginary version of what I say rather than what I am actually saying ... are you for real ?

btw you fail to mention the economic activity of the central banks all around the world who printed trillions of wealth at a whim and are going to keep doing so until their ultimatele collapse ...

a ponzi scheme doesn't work that way, you don't get more bitcoin by being an early adopter which is what it would do if it was a ponzi scheme.
the value of a bitcoin do increase as the bitcoin supply diminishes and more adoption happens, but if you want to benefit from that value you have to sell your bitcoin. you absolutely do get rewarded for being an early adopter and believing in the fundamentals of the technology. the longer you hold the more value you get, nobody knows what the future hold and so you are taking risks and are rewarded for it. easier said than done, very few have held from the early days until now ...

the fundamentals of bitcoin is that the system ultimately rely on energy, aka a hashrate of over 140M TH/s of computer power running on electricity, this is the link to the physical world and why people think it has intrinsic value at its core.
The bitcoin network will literally never cease to exist as long as it is profitable to run the network, and the difficulty adjustment mechanism of the algorithm is there to make sure of it.

the ultimate difference with USD is the fix monetary policy associated to it and the fact that the governance of this policy is decentralized and very difficult to influence. everyone who are running the network have the same incentive.

I'll repeat the fundamentals that define the value of bitcoin, again! : decentralized, borderless, peer to peer, censorship resistant, trustless.
I dare any of you to argue against that with any reasonable arguments.

will the price keep increasing for a long time ? maybe or maybe not who knows!
I do believe it will and so I am in it for the long run.

PS> sorry for the wall of text ...
BTC now 37k, ETH now at 1201 woah
 
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@4br you just don't get it man, if you would have just BTFD and HODL you would have been a billionaire now. So your arguments are invalid! Don't try to confuse us with your mumbo jumbo about economics or deflation ... LOL
Oh what is that ? Is that 37k ? Oh my i didnt see that coming !

I never recommended anyone to hodl for life, i am telling everyone this is the start of a bull market and now is not the time to sell if you bought earlier, at some point this year we will get there. Until then its BTFD all the way to 100k! You don't like money or what ??

That said, there is actually a compelling narrative about holding your bitcoin forever but to get there one need to do a lot of research and take non negligible risks, every year so far the risk diminishes and the narrative strengthen ... This is not a strategy for anyone who just heard about bitcoin and wants to make money with it short term.
 
Oh what is that ? Is that 37k ? Oh my i didnt see that coming !

I never recommended anyone to hodl for life, i am telling everyone this is the start of a bull market and now is not the time to sell if you bought earlier, at some point this year we will get there. Until then its BTFD all the way to 100k! You don't like money or what ??

That said, there is actually a compelling narrative about holding your bitcoin forever but to get there one need to do a lot of research and take non negligible risks, every year so far the risk diminishes and the narrative strengthen ... This is not a strategy for anyone who just heard about bitcoin and wants to make money with it short term.

I thought you will only start to bark when it reaches 500k? what's the matter, couldn't help yourself?

decentralized, borderless, peer to peer, censorship resistant, trustless

I already refuted all these "arguments" , simply by saying that all other shitcoins have exactly the same "fundamentals". You only like BTC because "it's going up". This is the very definition of a bubble. (Btw I like how you repeat these points all the time while ignoring all the other points that @4br made, looks like someone is trying to convince himself? :D )

it's like the old joke about the atheist talking to a religious person - "you don't believe in Zeus, Krishna, or 99.99% of the other gods. The only difference is that I believe in one less god than you".
You don't believe in 99% of the other shitcoins because you see clearly that they are pump-and-dump shitcoins. I don't believe in BTC because of the exact same reason.

"bitcoin supply diminishes and more adoption happens" - what adoption are you talking about? adoption of what? what are you doing with your BTC besides buying and HODLing them? :D which is exactly what almost everybody else is doing.

Anyway this will be my last message in this thread as there are better uses of my time. You are completely brainwashed and beyond saving. I recommend you read again what @4br wrote but most likely you will never be see the reality even after the next 50% crash. Everybody else that got raped in 2017 still believe in creepto years later... unfortunately this disease has no cure.
 
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I thought you will only start to bark when it reaches 500k? what's the matter, couldn't help yourself?
You were mocking me for using BTFD earlier when price went back below 30k, that was my answer to your pointless mockery.

I already refuted all these "arguments" , simply by saying that all other shitcoins have exactly the same "fundamentals".
seriously ? you didn't get the part about the hashrate ? you are going to ignore that like it doesn't exist ?
this is a chart of the hashrate of bitcoin and some the major crypto, can you see the other crypto on the chart ? (hint, no you dont because they are insignificant in comparison!).
1610035508696.png


"bitcoin supply diminishes and more adoption happens" - what adoption are you talking about? adoption of what? what are you doing with your BTC besides buying and HODLing them? :D which is exactly what almost everybody else is doing.
This is the adoption, every time someone put wealth in the bitcoin network it grows, and it will continue to grow at an insane rate and for a long time.
people beliefs when they buy bitcoin doesn't matter at all, but I can guarantee you when MassMutual buys 100M bitcoins they f*****g believe very hard in the fundamentals of bitcoin and that it is not a ponzi scheme ... same for microstrategy who converted their entire treasury into bitcoin (over 500M) or Paypal who is now offering their 350M+ customers the ability to buy crypto. but perhaps you would like to call those people brainwashed hopeless cult member as well ?

with its fundamentals of being decentralized, borderless, peer to peer, censorship resistant, trustless bitcoin doesn't discriminate and is open to anyone on earth with a smartphone connected to the internet, whether they are rich or poor. you are the one who is hopeless for not seeing any value into that and you are missing out BIG TIME!

you have nothing, run !


PS: 39k ahah
 
@nomad999 - thanks for the regularly 5-minute (uptick-only) update, but I'd kindly ask you to stop it. We agree to disagree and take note of your market position. I already congratulated you for becoming the next mi(bi)llionaire with your smart trading (if you want me I can do it again if that helps my cause), but I sincerely think it's enough. This forum is not meant as a tick-gloat-market update, there are other venues and forums for that. Thanks.

PS: Same applies to hot-pot TESLA cult followers, who are enjoying moon-like journeys to riches.

NVO
 
yeah someone posted

doh948""
 
In my opinion,
Price does not matter when you doing black/grey things.
Just convert them to Stable coin and then Fiat cash.

You can launder limitless money using this things.

"Real" beneficiary of this bitcoin never care about price .

May be I am wrong.

but think like you are a drug dealer or corrupt politician , How easy it is to launder money out of the country within a second.
The country with high corrupt people , this is like a Blessing.
US or another big developed country will ban bitcoin in future.
What about small corrupt country ?
How will they ban them?
If small country leader have bribe money in bitcoin , Why they ban them? and how ?

In same way How developed country can ban bitcoin ?

Without (before) a bitcoin, USA has underground market .Nobody can shut them down.

Price can be debatable . But In my view bitcoin will last forever as long as internet .

Big boys of bitcoin users do not care about the price.
Real charm of the bitcoin is it is ability to transfer money without any KYC/PAPER work with small fees.

If all government come together and ban bitcoin , It will still survive. For money laundering price does not matter.
Most country ban drug ,still people buy drug without so many problem.

Think like mafia who use bitcoin for his business. here price does not matter.

My point is "real user of bitcoin does not care about the price".:)


आप वो नहीं होते जो दिखाते है.. आप वो होते है जो छुपाते है
English version
"You are not what you show .. You are what you hide"

All people, media showing price but nobody showing the "real use "
How some drug deal selling drug without any problem.
How hacker get money and police never catch him.





@Martin Everson

Can you put some light on my thought ?
Am I right ? or Fool who think nonsense.

Thanks
 
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BTFD HOLY s**t PEOPLE GET IN FAST ! smi(&%

seriously though, wait for GBTC to start trading and everything will skyrocket back above 40k.
watch carefully, this is how the whales steal your lunch !

Honestly I agree with you, the FOMO is so strong that in the short-term there is a good chance it will reach 100k (i'm actually being serious here, no joke)

My problem is with the long term, I see no real fundamentals, but in the short term some people can really enjoy the bubble if you know when to exit...
 
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the whole crypto market is worth about 1T USD, it is estimated that about 2T USD is laundered every year worldwide.
only the US dollars allows to launders a limitless amount of money.
Do not get me wrong , Get done some math

Today tether volume according to coinmarketcap.com

$166,990,474,820

166,931,725,240 USDT
Now multiple by 365

who use this Stable coin ?
Trading ??
Really??
 

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